How It Begins

No one knows how 2019 will unfold.

Where is the economy headed?

What about the stock market?

Will House Democrats do anything this year other than investigate Trump?

Will Trump crater in the face of the unrelenting attacks on him or will he continue to confound his considerable enemies?

Which Democrats will announce they are running for President and who will actually have the support to be on primary ballots early in 2020?

There are thousands and thousands of unanswered questions as we begin the new year.

I try to not make predictions. I have enough trouble trying to understand what is happening today. I often am not totally sure of why something happened yesterday.

I am not alone. Two years later half the country still can't understand why Donald Trump is President.

All that being said, I came across some interesting polling data on how the American people feel about their current situation.

Who knows how the year will end? However, this data provides some interesting insights on how it begins.

Before we get to the polling data, here is an interesting chart to provide some necessary context about the world we live in today. We hear a lot in the media about how bad things are. We hear a lot about conflicts around the world. We hear that the world is coming apart. We hear a lot about how violent the world is. Some think we are near the end times.

The reality is that we are living in what may be the most peaceful period there has ever been on earth. Global deaths due to conflicts and wars has not been this low in over 600 years of recorded history.

Now to the recent polling data that I found interesting.

Let's first look at a Gallup poll on what Americans say is the country's biggest problem. Gallup has been asking this questions for years and years and invariably it seems that the economy and jobs are at or near the top of the list.

People care most about what goes in and out of their wallet.

That is not the case in this poll that was done between December 3-12.

19% cited government was the biggest problem facing the country followed by 16% who said immigration was the biggest problem.

That is pretty remarkable. Government is viewed as the problem rather than the solution?

Where are the economy and jobs in the poll? Each is only cited by 3% as the biggest problem. That is also pretty remarkable. Most people seem fairly content with their economic situation right now. To put that in perspective, 40% cited economic issues as the biggest problem facing the country in 2016 right before Trump was elected.

Will the same be true at the end of 2019? Or in Fall, 2020? The answer may determine the 2020 election.

The other thing that is interesting looking at the poll is comparing the November and December results. By doing this you clearly see how much current events and media attention shape public opinion.

Note how immigration was cited as the country's top problem in November as the migrant caravan marched towards the United States. This issue dropped 5 points in December as attention waned in the media.

Similarly, healthcare dropped from 11% in November to 5% in December. Healthcare was top of mind for many people in November as they dealt with 2019 plan enrollments and Democrats talked about it leading up to the mid-terms elections. A month later it no longer holds the attention it did.

The second poll is a Morning Consult survey on the attitudes of Americans on whether certain things in their personal lives had gotten better or worse for them over the past year.

This survey suggests that the attitude of Americans on most things in their lives has improved a great deal in 2018.

However, it seems to have gotten a lot better for Republicans than it has for Democrats.

How can that be?

Do your political views have that much affect on your attitudes about how good your work-life balance, mental health, personal life and love life is?

It apparently does.

My advice to Democrats is to lighten up a bit in 2019.

You may recall all of the predictions of gloom and doom when Donald Trump was elected President.

Two years later we are still standing. In fact, objective facts (see this blog post) and subjective opinions (see above) both suggest that things are much better today than they were before Trump was elected.

What transpires during 2019 may change that. However, this is where we are as the new year begins.

Enjoy it. Embrace it. If you are a Democrat, elevate your attitude a bit. Is Donald Trump really that bad if you look around you today and look at the data? You might also take a minute to empathize with Republicans who might have had the same feelings you have today during eight years of Barack Obama.

No one knows where we will be when the new year closes.

However, this is how it begins. And it has been a pretty good two years despite the wailing and whining we hear every day.

We are sure to see grimmer times at some point ahead. It is the natural order of things. However, we will not be able to meet that challenge if we remain so divided.

It is worth reflecting on all of this as we begin the New Year.

Happy New Year one and all!