Reparations, Jobs and Returns

A few interesting observations to end the week that you likely did not see or hear about in the mainstream media.

Reparations

A number of Democrats have stated that they are in favor in paying reparations for descendants of slaves brought to America from Africa centuries ago. These include several Democrats who have announced for the Presidency including Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Julian Castro and Marianne Williamson. Williamson has made reparations the centerpiece of her campaign and wants to commit $200-$500 BILLION for reparation payments.

Less than 400,000 slaves were originally brought to the United States out of a total of 12.5 million who were caught up in the slave trade. 10.7 million arrived in the Western Hemisphere. That means that less than 4% of all slaves came to the United States.

This is the picture of an exhibit I took at the Natchez, MS visitor's center that shows the workings of the slave trade that I referred to in a previous post a couple years ago.

Less than 4% of the Atlantic Slave Trade went to North America.

Over 10 times (42%) that number went to the West Indies.

38% went to Brazil. 6% to Guyana and 8% to the rest of Central and South America.

2% ended up in Europe which you almost never hear anything about.

Where are all the calls from Democrats for reparations to be paid from these other countries?

I think it is also interesting to note that almost 400,000 Union soldiers died in the Civil War (almost exactly the same number of slaves brought to the United States) in order to end slavery.

If there is anyone who should be considered for reparations should it not also include the descendants of these men? Of course, most of these were young men who never got the opportunity to produce descendants. They sacrificed their lives in order that the slaves and their descendants could be free. The descendants of which the Democrats now want to pay reparations to.

Do you see the insanity of any discussion of reparations?


The Economy and Unemployment

I came across this pretty incredible chart by Charlie Bilello that shows just how great the economy is right now.

There are actually 1.4 million jobs more openings today than their are people unemployed and looking for work.

This has never occurred in the 18 years since these two data points have been tracked together.

I guess this is what the economists would call FULL EMPLOYMENT.

In 2010, there were 13 million more people searching for jobs than there were openings.


Job Growth Forecasts

Speaking of jobs, I thought this was also an interesting chart from The Wall Street Journal's Daily Shot. It compares the consensus forecast of economists on the growth in jobs compared to what actually has occurred since the beginning of 2016.

Notice that during Obama's last year the forecast of job growth and the actual results were pretty close. When Trump gained the GOP nomination, and after his election, the forecast turned down. However, actual job growth since Trump became President has consistently outperformed the forecast.

It makes you wonder whether politics is influencing these economic forecasts?

If you ask why I say that, take a look back at these comments from various "esteemed" academic economists on what they forecast would occur under President Trump.

"Under Trump, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months. The damage would be felt far beyond the United States."  Former Clinton and Obama chief economist Larry Summers, June 2016.

"Trump would likely cause the stock market to crash and plunge the world into recession." Simon Johnson, MIT economics professor, in The New York Times, November 2016.

"If Trump wins we should expect a big markdown in expected future earnings for a wide range of stocks — and a likely crash in the broader market (if Trump becomes president)." Eric Zitzewitz, former chief economist at the IMF, November 2016.

"It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?  A first-pass answer is never… So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight." Paul Krugman of the New York Times the day after the election.

Market Returns 

How 33 markets have fared since the 2009 lows from Barry Ritholtz.

It would seem to have been a pretty good 10 years for both investors (most asset classes up) and consumers (many commodity prices down) Add to that the fact that over 20 million jobs were added in the last decade and you have to ask what is there to complain about?

However, we still have so many people complaining every day about how bad it is.

Facts are just so darn inconvenient.