Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Better Off Than Three Years Ago?

"Are you better off than you were four years ago?"

Ronald Reagan used this line when he debated Jimmy Carter during the 1980 Presidential campaign.

The voters decided they were not better off.

Reagan won 44 states in a 489-44 the electoral college vote landslide.

The Gallup Organization recently conducted a poll in which it compared changes in the satisfaction level of voters on various issues from the beginning of the Trump presidency (January 2017) to today (January 2020).

In effect, asking voters, "are you better off than you were three years ago?".

I found the results of that poll very interesting.

For example, consider the answers on the economy, the nation's security from terrorism and the nation's defense preparedness.

68% expressed satisfaction with the economy compared to 46% three years ago. (+22 points).

68% also expressed satisfaction with the nation's security from terrorism. (+18 points).

81% are satisfied with the nation's military strength. (+15 points).

However, what I found really interesting were the next four issues on the list.

State of race relations (+14 points).

Crime reduction and prevention (+ 9 points).

The position of blacks and other minorities (+ 9 points).

The way income and wealth is distributed (+ 8 points).

Note that we hear nothing but negative comments from Democrats and the media about how bad race relations, the position of minorities and wealth distribution is supposed to be under President Trump.

However, voters are saying that they are much more satisfied with the way things are with these issues today than they were with President Obama!

Here is the complete list of issues in which voter satisfaction has increased significantly in the last three years under President Trump.

Source: Gallup Poll, 1/27/2020

Just as interesting to me are several issues in which the satisfaction level is lower today than three years ago.

Satisfaction with the amount Americans pay in federal taxes went from 39% to 37% (-2 points).

This is despite the fact that the largest income tax cut in history was passed under Trump in which the bulk of the decrease was targeted to the middle class.

Are voters saying they still think they are paying too much?

Or are these Democrat voters saying they think that tax rates are too low? Of course, they don't want higher taxes on themselves, just on the "rich".

There has also been a decrease in the satisfaction with the level of immigration into the country from 41% three years ago to 35% today (- 6 points).

This is despite the fact that Trump has attempted to enforce the law and curb illegal immigration unlike any of his recent predecessors.

I have to think that this indicates the voters believe that more needs to be done to curb illegal immigration. If anything, this suggests that voters want stronger enforcement of immigration, not less.

Again, this is directly counter to the narrative we hear from Democrats and the media.

Here is the rest of the Gallup list.

Source: Gallup Poll, 1/27/2020

If I was a Democrat strategist I would not take too much satisfaction in this survey.

What issues should they focus on that have potential in this year's election?

It seems that most of the issues they traditionally like to use (the economy, race relations, minority opportunities, income and wealth inequality, less immigration enforcement) are going against them.

Democrats may have some opportunities with the environment or healthcare based on the survey. Abortion is a possibility but decreased satisfaction with the issue may actually have more to do with the radical views of Democrats on late term abortions than anything else.

There are still nine months to the election and a lot can change in that time. When Donald Trump is the President and the leading contenders for the Democrat nomination are 79 years of age (Sanders) and 78 (Biden) as of November that is even truer than in a normal election year.

However, the Gallup survey on the satisfaction levels of Americans today compared to three years ago has to provide Trump and the Republicans with a pretty good level of satisfaction in itself right now.

Gallup is also out with another poll today (February 4, 2020) that shows President Trump with the highest approval rating of his over three years as President at 49%. Obama was at 45% at the same time in his Presidency..

It is interesting to note that Trump was at 39% approval when the impeachment inquiry started in the House in October. Trump was impeached by the House, went through a trial in the Senate and his approval rating went up 10 points in the last four months?

I guess you could say that the Democrats miscalculated on how this impeachment gambit would play out.

In the meantime, voter approval of the Democrat party has dropped 3 points since last September while approval of the GOP surged 8 points to 51%. That is the highest approval rating for Republicans since 2005.

You might also say that Donald J. Trump and the Republicans are also much better off than they were three years (and three months) ago.

No comments:

Post a Comment