Thursday, May 21, 2020

Good News If True

Since Covid-19 arrived on the scene there has been so much conflicting information and advice about the virus.

The WHO initially stated that there was little evidence the virus could be transmitted via human-to-human transmission.

It later concluded that it was highly contagious via human-to-human contact.

The WHO stated right after President Trump announced the China travel ban in late January that "there is no need to restrict travel in order to slow the spread".

It later supported travel restrictions to slow the spread.

We were told to not wear masks.

Now everyone is told to wear masks.

We were told that states like Georgia and Florida which were late in adopting "shelter in place" and early in removing the lockdown would see an exponential rise in cases.

Here is the latest data from Georgia which has seen a continuation of a decline in cases since May 1 when the shelter in place order was lifted in the state.

Source: (05/21/20)

Deaths are in a steeper decline but this is a lagging indicator so we might need a couple more weeks to draw final conclusions on this trend.

Source: (05/21/20)

Here is Florida's latest data that shows as testing has increased substantially the percent of positive cases has been dropping steadily.


It is all very confusing.

It is also discouraging as people are increasingly saying to me, "I don't know who or what to believe anymore." 

Keeping all of the above in mind, I thought I would share some encouraging Covid-19 news with you.
Let's call it "Good News If True". It seems that we always need a caveat when it comes to Covid-19.

Covid-19 Does Not Spread Easily on Surfaces

There has been a significant concern from the beginning that contaminated surfaces such as door knobs and handles were major vectors for transmission of the virus.

The latest opinion of the CDC is that Covid-19 does not spread easily on surfaces.


"While touching infected surfaces has always been part of the messaging on how the virus spreads, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently shifted its stance online. The CDC now says that COVID-19 spreads from person to person contact, and then lists touching infected surfaces under a section titled, "The virus does not spread easily in other ways." 

Covid-19 Patients Testing Positive After Recovery Are Not Infectious

There has been a lot of concern in the past that individuals who had recovered were testing positive later. The latest research indicates that these individuals are just shedding dead virus and are not contagious.


Risks are very low for transmission of Covid-19 out-of doors

This is particularly good news as summer approaches. A Chinese study of 318 outbreaks found just one (.00314) incidence occurred out-of-doors and that involved just two individual cases.

Spread by asymptomatic carriers may have been overstated

An early study out of Germany stated that initial cases in that country were caused by an asymptomatic person who had visited from China. That study was relied on by a number of public health experts (including Dr. Fauci) to state that asymptomatic transmission was a serious concern. However, subsequent research indicates that the infected person in question was exhibiting symptoms that were not previously disclosed. A correction in the paper has been made. It may be the case that asymptomatic spread is less prevalent than previously believed.

Testing Is Increasing Rapidly While The Percentage of Confirmed Cases Is In Steep Decline

Source: (05/21/20)

The United States is now doing over  400,000 tests per day vs. 200,000 in early May.

The 7-day moving average of positive cases is 6.0% vs. 12.5% in early May.

New positive tests yesterday were 21,520 vs. about 30,000 per day in early May.

Who knows whether we can believe any of this good news considering the track record on what we have been told about Covid-19 in the past?

I did save the most positive news for last and this is most certainly true as I saw it with my own eyes today.

Pallets and pallets of toilet paper at Costco. Let's hope that this is a harbinger that better times are just ahead.

Let's hope the other news is just as true as we get beyond Memorial Day and head into the summer.


  1. Scott, LOVE your write ups. Perspective and context are so welcome. I am curious on your link to the study regarding the asymptomatic transmission. The article is dated 2/2/20. Is there anything more up to date? February seems a lifetime ago, and there has been so much written since then.

    1. You are correct that February IS a lifetime ago. That is a reason I posted that link in that the info about the initial study has been out there for months but that initial study is still cited a lot without mentioning it has been debunked.

      There is still no reliable info on asymptomatic transmission that I have found. CDC now estimates that 35% of those with Covid-19 are asymptomatic but there is still a question of how contagious they are. If they have low viral loads they may not be as capable of transmitting virus. For example, I have seen one study that suggests that children are much more likely to be asymptomatic with Covid-19. However, that same study found that children almost never transmitted it to someone else because of low viral loads.

      Pre-symptomatic is a different category. These are people who will show symptoms eventually as opposed to those with virus who never will. Some evidence that pre-symptomatic are particularly contagious because of high viral loads right before symptoms present.

      Thanks for reading and thanks for the good words. I appreciate it.

    2. Scott,

      Thank you so much for your reply. My prayers for you and all whom you love to stay healthy as we move forward.