Thursday, January 28, 2021

Are Covid Vaccinations Causing Deaths?

Are Covid vaccinations causing deaths?

That is a question I got from a BeeLine reader recently when he saw this article about a surge in Covid deaths in Gibraltar right after introduction of the Pfizer vaccine in that British Territory adjoining Spain.

He asked me if it was true.

I know a little about Gibraltar having visited there on a cruise about 10 years ago. It only has about 30,000 residents and a good part of the workforce comes into the territory on a daily basis from neighboring Spain.

This is another article on Gibraltar's recent surge in Covid deaths asking the question of whether the vaccine could be contributing to the death toll.

Ever since the epidemic began, sorting genuine Covid deaths from others has been a major issue. Now we have the added problem of vaccines in the mix. The UK now allegedly has the highest daily “Covid death” rate ever. Even higher than the “First Wave,” in spite of the substantial degree of herd immunity that has inevitably accrued since the beginning. This atypical “Second Wave” coincides with the vaccine roll-out. Are the two connected?

Gibraltar, normally called simply “Gib,” provides a very clear picture. This tiny British Colony, barely three miles long, appended to the South coast of Spain, has only 32,000 residents. It had suffered relatively little from the epidemic before the 9th January this year, with only seventeen deaths for the whole period. The death rate was well down the Deaths per Million League Table. This was not due to isolation, since Spanish workers have continued to pour into Gib every morning, and back out every evening.

On January 9th, the British Royal Air Force flew in 6,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine and they were quickly deployed on the population to avoid degradation of the supply. Therefore, as many as 20% of the population of Gibraltar were quickly given the vaccine in a short period of time.

I was not aware of what had been going on in Gibraltar so I did a little independent research to understand what the truth might be.

The surge in deaths is true. Answering the question of whether they have been caused by the vaccine is more difficult to answer.

Gibraltar had been relatively unscathed by Covid until the middle of December.

The surge in cases seems to have peaked right about the time that the vaccine was first administered.

Despite the fact that Gibraltar did not have one death from Covid until November, 2020, 69 deaths have now been recorded. There were only 12 deaths from Covid as of January 9.

Despite having one of the lowest Covid death rates in the world two months ago, Gibraltar now has the highest per capita death rate of any place in the world.

Are the Covid vaccinations causing deaths in Gibraltar?

I don't know at this point. 

There is usually about a three week lag effect between the rise in Covid cases and an increase in deaths. It is therefore entirely possible that the increase in deaths in Gibraltar in January are the result of the increasing number of cases that began in mid-December and peaked around January 9. The increased deaths could clearly have nothing to do with the vaccine.

We should know more as we get into February. It is encouraging that new Covid cases have continued a downward trend in Gibraltar recently. Is this due to the vaccine or is it a natural result of the virus burning out? With so many variables involved, it is always difficult to know anything with certainty concerning Covid.

Consider the recent death of Hank Aaron at age 86.

On January 5, Aaron received the Moderna vaccine as part of a public relations campaign to encourage  African Americans to get the vaccine. He passed away in his sleep on January 22 from what has been described as "natural causes".

That very well could be true. It likely is just a coincidence. However, it is also true that if Aaron had tested positive for Covid on January 5 (even if he had no symptoms), and died 17 days later, his death would have been counted as a  Covid death. There is no question about that.

This is the double standard and bias that is so difficult to understand.

Covid is listed as the cause of death if there is the slightest hint it was present in someone's body over the previous 60 days.

If someone dies 60 minutes after getting the vaccine, it is a "coincidence".

This should be troubling to anyone who is trying to honestly assess the issues involving the virus and the vaccines.

The media and the "experts" have painted the most negative and dangerous narrative they could involving Covid-19. They are also portraying the vaccines in the most positive light they can.

The truth undoubtedly lies somewhere in the middle but it is next to impossible for the average person to decipher what it is. 

As an example, here is the Oregon Health Authority falsely stating on its website that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have been APPROVED by the FDA. This is a false and deceptive statement. These vaccines have merely been AUTHORIZED for use under an emergency use authorization. They are unapproved and unlicensed at this point. We are effectively still in an experimental trial period with these vaccines.


If there is any place in the world we can look to in order to see how effective the Pfizer vaccine is (or is not) it will be Israel.

Israel has now vaccinated 82% of its population in the last month. It is an incredible accomplishment.

Israel was able to acquire large supplies of the vaccine because it agreed to provide Pfizer all of the immunological data on its population in return. In effect, the people of Israel are a huge experimental group that will help Pfizer determine the benefits (and risks) of the vaccine that is much larger than was used in the clinical trials.

Just as was the case in Gibraltar, Israel was seeing a spike in cases just before the vaccination program began. New cases are almost double today what they were a month ago when the vaccine program began. However, in the last week new cases have declined slightly. Is this the beginning of a large trend? We better hope so.

Daily New Cases in Israel

Daily deaths are over three times what they were a month ago when the vaccine program was initiated. If this does fall sharply over the next month with 82% vaccinated, there should be a lot of questions asked about the Pfizer vaccine.

Daily Deaths in Israel

Keep your eyes on Israel's experience with Covid over the next month or two. It could be a useful indicator of how effective the Pfizer vaccine is.

Where can someone go to attempt to find out what adverse effects and deaths are being associated with the Covid vaccines in the United States?

The CDC and the FDA maintain a Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) for doctors, nurses or patients to report any adverse events that occurs after a vaccination. This system was created in 1990 in response to the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act which exempted pharmaceutical companies from any liability for damages or deaths caused by their vaccine products. It was thought that having a system to capture adverse events centrally would be helpful in that it might allow vaccines that are causing problems to be scrutinized in a more timely basis to cut off access if there is a problem.

Critics say the problem with VAERS is that many adverse events are not reported. Many see an event and believe it was a " coincidence". Therefore, some believe the VAERS data vastly understates the number of adverse events. Those that are pro-vaccine argue the opposite. They state that many of the events reported are temporal and should not have been reported into the system to begin with.

To compound matters, VAERS is very clunky if you want to attempt to extract data from the system. It has been even worse lately as the system was down recently. The CDC states that it is because the server was overwhelmed by too many queries according to Alex Berenson.

I have found it easier to research vaccine adverse events by going to this site (OpenVAERS) which takes the VAERS data but packages in a user-friendly interface.

This is the VAERS data for the Covid vaccines through January 22, 2021.

This is the breakdown on deaths by vaccine manufacturer and by gender.

It is important to remember that these are cases where the death was close enough in time that someone was suspicious the vaccine caused the death. There might not be a relationship between the vaccine and death. Then again, you have cases like Hank Aaron which were clearly not reported to VAERS but should it have been?

Pfizer has more reported deaths but that might be a function of the fact that it was introduced earlier.

Note that deaths between males and females is almost equal.

This is the distribution by age.

I am personally troubled by the deaths reported in the age 25-50 age group. Did the potential benefit of the vaccine outweigh the cost for this group considering the low Covid death rate for these ages?

I think the breakdowns by sex for the adverse events that have been reported to VAERS for hospitalizations and ER/urgent care visits is very interesting.

Are the vaccines creating greater side effects on females than males? These are very heavily skewed towards females for some reason.

Hospitalizations-VAERS data for Covid vaccines

ER/Urgent Care-VAERS data for Covid vaccines

You also see some interesting differences in the data by age. 

Look at the high number of adverse events in those younger even though a focus in many states has been to prioritize those over age 65 for the vaccine. Most of these younger age people have to have been health care workers.

Some believe that the vaccine elicits a much stronger immune response from the vaccine in the young versus the old. This might be an indication of that. Could the response be too strong in some younger people?

Hospitalizations-VAERS data for Covid vaccine

ER/Urgent Care Visits-VAERS data for Covid vaccine

Of course, you have to keep all of these numbers in perspective. Allowing for a lag of one week in reporting to VAERS, I estimate that approximately 12 million doses of vaccine had been administered to which the potential 182 deaths VAERS associated deaths were reported. 

All of those numbers above don't look as bad with that context. However, if you are THE ONE, odds don't matter much.

Are Covid vaccinations causing deaths? 

It would surprise me if they weren't. The question is whether the number of deaths is acceptable in comparison to the potential deaths saved.

For example, for those between the ages of 18-50, there have been 17,787 deaths attributed to Covid in the last 13 months. 334,689 people in these age groups died of another cause. In other words, in these age groups, there is almost a 20x chance of dying from something else than Covid. 

Deaths by accident in these age groups have annually been about 56,000. This would put the odds of dying from an accident for these ages at over 3x that of dying from Covid. Deaths from suicide have also been higher than the number of Covid deaths and this was before the lockdown effects of Covid have increased the suicide rates for these ages.

Do these low death from Covid rates for these ages justify any risk by taking the vaccine?

My view is that we will know a lot more about the costs and benefits of the vaccines in another couple of months when more data is available----especially from Israel.

What would I recommend in the meantime?

Looking at the data, I would have a hard time recommending anyone under age 50 take the vaccine right now. This seems even more true for females. I just don't see the benefits outweighing the potential costs.

For those above that age it probably comes down to personal choice.

I personally believe that it is more prudent to wait and see what the data from the large population set in Israel reveals. We are going to know a lot more in a few months. It doesn't make sense to me to force a decision when we will be much better informed in a month or two. 

If you choose to wait, there are still things you do to enhance your own immune system naturally.

Many doctors say that the most important preventive health action you can take is to maintain high Vitamin D levels. This might be a reason that lockdowns have not worked as well as we were told they would. If you are inside you are not getting the Vitamin D levels you need.

Most people should be taking Vitamin D supplements in the winter months in particular. Is it a coincidence that we have had the highest peaks of Covid when people were pushed inside due to the weather?

If you want to learn more about Vitamin D levels and Covid, I recommend you read this article on a big push in this area in Ireland.

As always...

Stay informed. Stay healthy.

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