Covid---Then, Now and the Future

In the early days of the pandemic it was apparent that the Covid virus was primarily a concern for the old and with vulnerable health conditions.

That was clear in the Diamond Princess outbreak in Japan as well as the deaths we saw in Italy early in the  pandemic back in March, 2020.

In fact, this is a chart I published in these pages on March 15, 2020 detailing the age breakdown of the 780 deaths in Italy from Covid as of that date.

You will note that 87% of the Covid deaths in Italy at that early date were in those over the age of 70.

There were more deaths among those over age 80 than all of the deaths for everyone else below that age.

There had been no deaths for anyone below the age of 30.

I was reminded of this fact as I recently looked at Covid deaths in the United States now that we have some 2-1/2 years of experience.

Over 1 million deaths have been listed by the CDC as being associated with Covid in that period.

However, despite lockdowns, school closures, vaccines mandates and all the rest, the risk of death from Covid by age has not changed substantially compared to what we saw in those early days.

Over 75% of the deaths from Covid in the United States have been in those age 65 or older.

Only .9% of deaths have been in those under age 18. By contrast, that age group represents 22% of the U.S. population.

There have been more deaths in those age 85+ with Covid than all of the deaths with Covid from everyone below age 65.

The statistics are the same in Australia even though almost all Covid deaths have been in the last year  (over 90% of Covid deaths in Australia have occurred after the vaccines were introduced).

This chart from the Australian government shows Covid deaths by age group since the beginning of the pandemic.

Source: https://www.health.gov.au/health-alerts/covid-19/case-numbers-and-statistics#cases-and-deaths-by-age-and-sex

It is even closer to the early experience in Italy than the United States numbers.

85% of Covid deaths in Australia have been in those age 70 or older.

There have been more deaths of those age 80 or older than all younger age groups combined.

However, it looks like it might get even worse in Australia (95% age 16+ fully vaccinated and over 70% boosted) in the near future.

Hospitalizations are soaring down under right now.

The good news in the United States of late has been that despite the fact that reported Covid cases are running about 4 times what they were at this time last year (more likely at least 10 times higher considering home tests that are never reported), hospitalizations and deaths are only about 50% higher.

Source: The New York Times

However, these are still shocking numbers considering what we were originally told regarding the effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing infection (since admitted to be untrue) as well as the continuing argument that they prevent severe disease and death.

50% higher numbers of hospitalizations and deaths this year compared to what we saw last year hardly seems to be an endorsement of the "effectiveness" of the vaccines for anyone looking at the data objectively.

If someone said that these would be the results a year ago would anyone have agreed that should be considered "a success"?

Recall that Joe Biden was saying the following almost exactly one year ago today.

Biden speaking at CNN Town Hall in Cincinnati, July 21, 2021

Do you think he was a little off the mark?

I can't decide if he was further off on this or his statement that inflation was going to "transitory".

It would seem to me that the next several months are going to tell us a lot about where we go next with Covid.

The optimistic view is that the high level of cases we have seen over the last year, with proportionally less leading to hospitalizations and deaths, has created a level of herd immunity that moves Covid permanently to an endemic disease much like the seasonal flu.

The pessimistic view would be held by Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche who sees heavily vaccinated countries on the precipice of another mutation in the virus that will make it even more contagious and deadly than we have seen previously.

When I first started studying what Vanden Bossche was saying a year ago he stated that one of the things to watch for as the pandemic unfolded was whether cases failed to drop below previous lows despite the vaccination effort.

He argued that this was an indication that the virus was continuing to mutate and build within the population in what he called a "valley of fitness". He predicted this would invariably lead to another surge in cases as the virus worked around the vaccines and resulted in another variant. 

Are we seeing that occurring in the United States right now in that case levels are higher now than they were at this time of year in pre-vaccine 2020 or immediately after the aggressive vaccine push in the first six months of 2021?

Confirmed Covid Cases in U.S.-7-day average
Source: The New York Times

Is the next variant slowly and imperceptibly building in the population such that it won't be long before it is dominating the population in ways we don't want to imagine?

Is Vanden Bossche correct in his prediction that those most vulnerable in the next wave will be those who are most vaccinated and have the poorest natural immunity?

Few could imagine what we have witnessed since last year at this time despite everything we were told that the vaccines would do to prevent that result.

Geert Vanden Bossche is one who warned us. Nobody in any position of authority listened.

I documented his prediction in these pages almost one year ago that we would see an astounding surge in Covid cases that would be particularly evident in the most vaccinated countries.

We can only hope that he is wrong about where Covid goes next.

Let's hope that the virus does not leave that "valley of fitness".

Let's also hope we don't see this all end in the final prediction Vanden Bossche made over a year ago and which I wrote about last September.

 

He (Vanden Bossche) predicts that once the reality dawns on the populace of how horribly this pandemic has been mismanaged, leading to massive unnecessary death tolls in those who chose to be vaccinated - that the realization will lead to a form of revolutionary outbreak by a deeply disenchanted and grieving public. Because heads will have to roll. He even thinks that ultimately this will affect how people view vaccines in the future and might even require banning the use of the word vaccine due to the negative impact that current mass vaccine use will have. He really put a lot of thought to his vision of the future!

This reality is even harsher when considering the data above shows that the vast, vast majority of people really had no reason to get vaccinated based on what we knew about the risks of Covid from the very beginning. That has stayed true to today.

The decision to push mass vaccination on the population (most of which had small risks) destroyed any ability to develop herd immunity. It may also be responsible for the endless string of variants we have seen which has extended the length of the pandemic. Let's hope that Vanden Bossche is not correct and those mass vaccination efforts do not also also result in unnecessary illness and death. 

The next few months may tell us once and for all who has been right... and who has been wrong...about our response to Covid.

The answer to that question will undoubtedly have broad implications for the future of our institutions and our society.

I pray Vanden Bossche is wrong. I fear that he is not.