Excess Deaths And Disabilities In 2023

One of the big questions remaining in the post-Covid world is why we are seeing excess mortality well above pre-2020 levels persisting into 2023?

In fact, the expectation was that coming out of the pandemic we would see excess mortality numbers actually go negative due to the fact that Covid disproportionately caused more deaths in the older age cohorts.

This meant that Covid likely pulled a number of deaths forward of those older who were infirm and would likely die of another cause within the next several months or years.

This has not proven to be the case almost four years beyond the beginning of the pandemic.

What is more troubling is the significant amount of excess deaths that we are seeing in younger age groups.

For example, consider the graph below that was in an article in Life Insurance News about the continuing surge in excess mortality post-Covid.

Note the gray and mauve lines for the 2018 and 2019 pre-Covid years in which deaths were closely aligned with actuarial predictions for both years at 0% excess deaths.

In 2020 (the gold line) we see excess deaths at about 20% above normal for almost all age groups 15 years of age and older. This is probably not unexpected in that we were in the middle of a once in 100 year pandemic

In 2021 (the red line) excess deaths for all age groups is much higher than in 2020. Excess deaths are particularly high in the age 20-60 age groups at over 30% above normal rates. In the age 25-50 age goops excess deaths is 40% higher than expectations. This is particularly interesting as this is AFTER the introduction of the Covid vaccines which were supposed to provide protection against severe illness and death.

2022 (the pink line) saw excess deaths moderate but we still saw excess deaths of 30% above the baseline in the age 30-50 age groups.

In the first five months of 2023 (the black dotted line) we finally saw deaths in the 50-75 age group return to close to normal but excess deaths in the 30-50 age group are still 20% higher than expected.

What is going on?

Here is another look at excess deaths by broad age group comparing individuals covered by group life contracts (generally those employed) with the U.S.population as a whole that was prepared by the Society for Actuaries Research Group.

As a general rule it is expected that those individuals who are employed will be a healthier population in that they have to work. You are dealing with a more select group of individuals that will not include those who are disabled or otherwise too sick or weak to work.

Source: https://www.soa.org/4ac0fd/globalassets/assets/files/resources/experience-studies/2023/group-life-covid-mort-06-23.pdf

You can see this in the data for 2020 in that the Group Life population had lower deaths than the U.S. population. This would be the initial year of Covid with no vaccine. The Group Life population would also include those individuals who had greater risk of exposure to the virus as they could not all lockdown.

However, in 2021, after the introduction the vaccines, the situation reversed.

Those in the 15-64 age groups had greater excess mortality than the general U.S.population.

Why did this occur in 2021 and not 2020?

Why did excess deaths stay up in 2022 and 2023 even as Covid deaths receded?

The graphs below shows the trend in excess deaths for the under age 45 and 45-64 age groups excluding any Covid deaths. 

Notice how the age 44 and under excess deaths excluding Covid have remained persistently high while the age 45-64 excess deaths have returned to a more normal pattern.

Source: https://www.soa.org/4ac0fd/globalassets/assets/files/resources/experience-studies/2023/group-life-covid-mort-06-23.pdf

We know that drug overdose deaths increased in the 2021-2023 period. (See a blog post I wrote on this subject earlier this year)

We also know that suicides increased. (See my last blog post).

Are the excess deaths due to some type of longer term post-Covid virus effect?

If so, why has it not had the same effect on the old as the young?

Is it possible this has something to do with the Covid vaccines introduced in 2021?

Could the vaccines have a stronger long-term negative effect on the immune, cardiovascular or other systems of the young compared to the old?

The data and graphs above came from life insurance industry sources.

The reports about this data from life insurance sources have described what they are seeing in excess deaths to be "alarming" or "disturbing" or a subject deserving "urgent attention".

I don't know the answer to the questions above but it seems to me there should be some serious research and study being done by the NIH, CDC, FDA or another government agency to answer these questions.

After all, these vaccines were sold to the public as being "safe and effective".

It was mandated that tens of millions had to take the vaccine or lose their job, be kicked out of school or forced out of the military based on that promise.

If there is something we don't know we better find out sooner than later.

We have also seen the number of those in the civilian labor force with a disability expand massively since 2021. An additional 2.5 million individuals are on disability now than there were three years ago.

What has caused this?

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01074597

Is this merely the result of those who got used to living off of government benefits during Covid and decided they no longer wanted to work?

Is it after-effects of Covid? However, if this is the cause why did disabilities not begin increasing until a year after Covid first appeared on the scene?

Does it have something to do with the vaccine?

My hope is that a thorough investigation of the causes of the excess deaths and increased disabilities would conclude this is all related to Covid, the lockdowns and the after-effects rather than the vaccines.

However, the data suggests that something is wrong somewhere.

We need to find out what it is.

Is there a reason why there is not more curiosity and vigor being directed at finding the answer?

Could it be that those in charge at the CDC, NIH and FDA do not want to know the answer?