What's a Grandma x 9?

 For a child there is no better time to have a loving grandmother than at Christmas.

The unconditional love, the treat she sneaks to you that mom would not let you have, the stories of Christmas past.

One of my all-time favorite BeeLine blog posts was on the names that grandmothers go by in this day and age.

Unlike when I grew up when Grandma and Grandpa were more in vogue, it seems to no longer be cool to be so obvious in what you call those older folks in your life.

I have noticed that among Baby Boomers it is decidedly out of the norm to just be old Grandma and Grandpa. Baby Boomer women in particular don't seem to want to be called Grandma. It might have been fine for their Grandmother but it is decidedly not cool for a toddler calling out to "Grandma" at the local store.

I wrote the following blog post almost eight years ago.

At the time, Mrs. BeeLine and I had four grandchildren.

That number has now grown to nine so I have even more experience in the grandfather and grandmother business.

Having just baby sat for two of those grandchildren (ages 5 and 2) for four days while my son and daughter-in-law were on a business/getaway trip, I can also attest that being on the frontlines taking care of younger children is not easy if you are on Social Security.

Hats off to the many grandparents who have stepped into the breach to insure that their grandchildren are well cared for.

However, what name do those children call out when they want their grandparent?

Besides being one of my personal favorites, this blog post also is in the Top 10 for the most views of anything I have ever written since I started writing BeeLine 14 years ago.

Enjoy whether you are a grandparent or not.

What's a Grandma?

(originally published March 5, 2017)

Mrs. BeeLine and I have reached a certain age and station in life that grandchildren are a frequent topic of conversation in our circle of friends and acquaintances.

Before we were grandparents we often heard friends proclaim things like, "My grandson is extremely advanced for his age" or "My 3-year granddaughter has an excellent singing voice" and chuckle to ourselves. Yeah, their grandkids must be from Lake Woebegon. They are all above average.

Of course, now that we are grandparents, we are just as guilty as anyone else when talking about our grandchildren. However, we are careful to qualify all of our statements with something like this.

"We are not saying this just because he is our grandson, but Junior is very insightful for his age.

or

"Our granddaughter has extraordinary eye to hand coordination. You don't see many 2-year old kids who can catch a ball like that and I am not just saying that because she is ours."

Guilty as charged.

It really is true that being a grandparent is the one thing in life that is probably vastly underrated.

Of course, as grandchildren enter your life, so does the question of what those future holders of our federal debt are going to call you.

I have noticed that among Baby Boomers it is decidedly out of the norm to just be old Grandma and Grandpa. Baby Boomer women in particular don't seem to want to be called Grandma. It might have been fine for their Grandmother but it is decidedly not cool for a toddler calling out to "Grandma" at the local store.

Just as the baby name business has become big, so has the grandparent name business.

Mrs. BeeLine spent some time thinking about this topic before our first grandchild was born and decided that BeeBee would be a good name for her. She asked me what I wanted to be called. She was not pleased when I said "I don't care what he calls me. Grandpa is fine."

I was told I was no fun. I already knew that. After all, I write a blog that spends a lot of time on analyzing the problems in the world and in our nation. How much fun can I be?

Mrs. BeeLine ultimately decided that I would be called "BeeBop". She thought that was "fun" and went together well with BeeBee.

My reply was that she was probably right that the name for me made some sense from a 60 year old's perspective, but we were ultimately going to be dealing with a babbling 12 month old as the final arbiter. The kid was going to decide in the end whether he was going to put up with "BeeBop".

Four grandchildren later BeeBee has survived. When they visit our home they even refer to it as visiting the Beehive.

However, BeeBop was not so lucky. As I predicted, our first grandson had other ideas on what he was going to call me. BeeBop might have been suggested to him but what came out of his mouth was BubBub.

NO. I am not a Bubba. I am a BubBub. Of course, that has already been shortened by the oldest grandchild to Bub. BeeBee is sometimes called Beeb.

What other grandparent names are out there? It seems the possible names are endless.

I hear  Nini, Nana, Nonna, Gigi, Mimi and Mamaw quite a bit among my grandmother friends.

Pappy, Poppy. PaPa, PeePaw, Papaw and Hoppa are a few grandfather names among friends.

There are still a few grandma and grandpa or gramms and gramps out there, but not nearly as many as there used to be.

It does make you wonder if we are coming to a point when someone in kindergarten refers to her grandma and all the other kids will not know who she is talking about?

What do you do if you want to come up with your own special grandparent name?

Grandparents.com actually has a list of hundreds of names for you to consider. It is even organized into categories---traditional, trendy, playful, international, celebrity.

As an example, here is the list of trendy grandmother names.

If you are really serious about it, you can buy "The New Grandparents Name Book" by Lin Welford and Skye Bifer. It even gives you ideas on how you can create a custom grandparent name just for yourself.

Mrs. BeeLine could have written that chapter on custom names. It seems that BeeBee is not on any of the lists of Grandma names that I have seen. She truly gave herself a custom name for the unique grandmother she is.

BubBub is not on the list either. Another custom name. However, my grandson came up with that one on his own.

Perhaps my grandson could have written that chapter as well.

Of course, I am not just saying that because I am his grandfather.

The Power of a Preference Cascade

Human beings are social animals.

Societies from the beginning of time have been built upon families, tribes, groups and human relationships.

For most of history these relationships were a critical element in survival. Those that did not congregate and collaborate were at much greater personal risk.

Those who were outliers and did not conform to the customs, conventions and mores of the group were at risk of being shunned and banned.

There remains a strong desire to conform today even if if it is not as crucial to survival as it once was.

For example, take a look at this image of students being led from their school in Madison, Wisconsin after the horrific shooting in that city on Monday that I noticed in coverage of the killings.

I guess you are only cool if you wear pajama bottoms to school.

Source: https://beelineblogger.blogspot.com/2024/12/where-does-trump-stand-on-time.html

The desire to conform is strong in all of us.

This is true even if you privately believe the group is off base or wrong in what they are saying or doing.

It is far easier to conform and not stick your head out from the crowd. Being part of the crowd carries less risk. It is safer to be a part of the crowd so you can avoid being called out or noticed.

You may even "go along to get along" to keep the peace and not make waves.

That describes me during Covid.

I had done all the research and wrote extensively in these pages about the total lack of any evidence that wearing a surgical or cloth mask provided any protective benefits against the Covid virus.

However, despite that knowledge and belief, I dutifully put on a skimpy mask when I went into a grocery or other store during Covid. It just was not worth the dirty looks and scorn I would get if I did not conform to the narrative.

That is an example of what is called Preference Falsification.

My public action was contrary to what my private beliefs were on the benefit of wearing a mask.

Here is an article on Preference Falsification in Psychology Today.

In its worst manifestation, people will even take actions against their own self interest in a false belief in order to gain favor with what they believe to be the majority view.

For example, consider the woke turn that Disney took despite the fact that its core business market was family entertainment.

Source: https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/02/19/disney-a-billion-dollar-casualty-of-woke/

The woes facing Disney illustrate the powerful hold wokeness now has on big corporations. It’s as if Disney’s leaders felt compelled to toe the line on the identitarian agenda. They were prepared to trash the company’s reputation and alienate its fans, seemingly just to signal their allegiance to this new elite ideology.

Or Bud Light deciding it would help their brand identity and sell more beer by featuring a transgender personality in their advertising.

How do we get to a place that big brands like Disney and Bud Light would blow up billions of dollars of company value on actions that were in direct contradiction to the traditional views of its consumer base?

It was preference falsification. Disney and Bud Light were more concerned with attempting to curry favor by aligning with the woke narrative and the elites who promoted it.

The Leftists in America have spent decades bullying people into believing "woke" ideas on race, gender and politics. Constant media repetition amplified those ideas until anyone who might question the narrative thought they were the outlier.  If anyone did voice objection, they were mobbed or canceled which meant that over time fewer and fewer were willing to speak up. 

After awhile most everyone believes the narrative is the majority view, even if it is false.

This is why totalitarian governments spend so much time and effort on propaganda and using the police to crush even minor dissent. They want to create the illusion that all is well and make sure that anyone who might dissent does not understand the full extent that fellow citizens similarly dislike the regime. This is why preference falsification is such a powerful force.

However, even more powerful is a preference cascade.

A preference cascade occurs when the false spell is broken and masses of the discontented who believed they were alone come to realize that their beliefs are widely shared.

This is when revolutions occur or when a massive change in public attitudes becomes apparent.

Preference falsification may build slowly and stealthily.

However, a preference cascade occurs quickly when the falsification unwinds suddenly and causes a rapid transformation of society around the new found shared majority beliefs surprising outside observers and citizens alike.

The seminal academic work on preference falsifications and preference cascades is contained in a book written by economist Timur Kuran that was originally published in 1995.

Source: https://www.amazon.com/Private-Truths-Public-Lies-Falsification/dp/0674707583

I have come across a large number of people since the election remark how they feel as if something fundamental has changed in the last month.

The best explanation for that is the power of a preference cascade.

Donald Trump winning the recent election with a popular majority was an important turning point.

It showed to a number of people that they were not crazy. They were not alone. They were not misinformed. They do not have to remain silent for fear of being marginalized or maligned.

By the same token, it has caused those who relentlessly pushed the woke agenda, DEI, open borders, antisemitism and the like that they hold minority views. It has been a humbling experience and to this point it appears that they do not quite know how to react.

The realization that the Trump voters are in the majority and the Democrats on their heals is a powerful combination and we seem to be in the midst of preference cascade that may lead us into further transformation in society.

Of course, there is little doubt that Donald Trump is most responsible for this massive change in psychology.

He was the one man who was not afraid to stand up and speak his mind going all the way back to 2015.

Make no mistake that a big reason that the Democrats, Big Government and Big Media attacked Trump so viciously over the last decade is that he was such a threat to the preference falsification narrative they were using to maintain power.

The same is true for Elon Musk after he bought Twitter. When Musk committed Twitter (now X) to being the free speech outlet when every other major social media and Big Media platform was promoting the preference falsification narrative, it opened up more eyes and became harder to keep the false illusion alive.

We are in a different place today primarily due to Trump and Musk.

We don't yet know where all of this will lead.

However, do not underestimate the power of a preference cascade.

Where Does Trump Stand On Time?

Where does Donald Trump stand on time?

Last week the President-elect stated that he would work with Republicans to eliminate Daylight Saving Time( "DST").

However, in 2019 Trump suggested that he would sign a bill ("The Sunshine Protection Act") sponsored by Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott and Representative Vern Buchanan of Florida that would make Daylight Saving Time permanent.

The Sunshine Protection Act has been introduced in each of the last four sessions of Congress but has never been able to get the necessary support to pass.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunshine_Protection_Act

There are strong constituencies on both sides of the time issue.

Advocates of DST argue that it results in decreased crime, less frequent traffic incidents, longer evening outdoor recreation hours and reduced energy consumption.

Those who favor standard time claim it is more beneficial to our health as it better matches the natural circadian cycle of humans. It provides a better opportunity to take advantage of increased exposure to beneficial morning sunlight. It provides a safer environment for children going to school and for early morning worker commutes. The farming community also generally favors standard time as much of their work is done in the early morning hours.

However, going to standard time year round would push sunrise times in much of the country before 5:00 am in June. I am not sure how popular that would be.

Source: https://x.com/KOCOdamonlane/status/1868130056104513675

The only thing that most everyone agrees on is that they don't like changing their clocks two times a year and would prefer one time for the whole year.

My first memory of DST is when I was about 5 years old.  We lived just outside of Akron, Ohio and my grandparents lived in Cleveland. Cleveland was on DST but Akron was not so there was always a lot of discussion about what time is was whenever we planned a visit.  Even to a 5 year old that was very confusing.

This confusion reigned across the United States in the 1950's and 1960's because each locality could adopt, start and end DST as it wanted to.  In fact, on one bus route between West Virginia and Ohio, passengers had to change their watches seven times in 35 miles.  In Iowa, 23 different pairs of DST start and end dates were in effect in one year.

All of this chaos finally led Congress to pass a law in 1966 establishing set rules for observing DST nationally. This law established DST as the national standard beginning on the last Sunday of April and ending on the last Sunday in October-exactly six months in duration.  However, it permitted any state to exempt itself from DST by passing a state law. 

This was later amended to allow any state to make this distinction based on time zones in the state.  This resulted in Indiana (part Eastern and Central time) to split between standard and daylight time until the state finally went to DST uniformly in 2005. Right now Arizona and Hawaii are the only states that do not observe DST.

The law was later amended for DST to begin on the second Sunday in March and end on the first Sunday in November. We are using it the majority of the year.

Therefore, it is already difficult to understand why DST is not considered the standard and rename Standard Time Daylight Lost Time?

Congress once before passed a law to make DST permanent back in 1974 but the law was repealed before it went into full effect. due to public opposition.

The Emergency Daylight Saving Time Energy Conservation Act enacted year-round daylight saving time for a two-year experiment from January 6, 1974, to April 7, 1975, but Congress later ended the experiment early on October 27, 1974, and did not make it permanent due to unfavorable public opinion, especially regarding concerns about children walking to school and waiting for school buses on dark winter mornings.

You can see why those dark winter mornings are a concern if DST would be in effect year around by considering the sunrise times on January 1 in various major cities if that became a reality.

Source: https://www.foxweather.com/lifestyle/permanent-daylight-saving-time-9am-sunrise-winter

Source: https://www.foxweather.com/lifestyle/permanent-daylight-saving-time-9am-sunrise-winter

Source: https://www.foxweather.com/lifestyle/permanent-daylight-saving-time-9am-sunrise-winter

Permanent Daylight Saving Time would see large portions of the United States see over 100 days each year where the sun did not rise until after 8am.

Credit: https://x.com/bnkwupt/status/1853173071051739261

Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) stated she will work with anyone to make DST permanent in response to Trump stating he was in favor of eliminating it.

However, you have to wonder whether her constituents in Seattle will support her when they realize they will not see the sun until 900am in the dead of winter and after 8am for one-third of the year?

A YouGov poll last year on the issue of Daylight Saving Time found that a large majority of Americans wanted to eliminate the changing of clocks every year.

62% would like to see the changing of clocks eliminated.

Source: https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/etwjvohrxx/Daylight_Saving_Time_Toplines_Crosstabs.pdf

Of those who wanted to eliminate the time changes each year, Daylight Saving Time was the preferred option over Standard Time by a 50%-31% margin.

Source: https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/etwjvohrxx/Daylight_Saving_Time_Toplines_Crosstabs.pdf

Where does Trump stand on time?

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out as there are strong opinions on both sides.

The only clear consensus is people do not like changing their clocks.

Considering all of the above, if I were Trump I would attempt to work out a compromise solution.

Why not consider permanently adjusting all of the time zones forward by half an hour? That buys some extra daylight at the end of the day but would not disrupt the morning to the extent it is with the hour time change.

For those who think that is not possible, 30 minute offsets are being used in other parts of the world.

For example, India, the most populous country in the world, uses a 30 minute offset. Both Newfoundland and Venezuela in the Western Hemisphere are also on 30 minute offsets.

Source: https://www.timeanddate.com/time/time-zones-interesting.html

A compromise on time sounds like it has potential to be in the spirt of "The Art of the Deal" that Trump is famous for.

Is there any place left for compromise among us?

Can we start with our time?

The 2024 Decade

Although this quote is attributed to Lenin there is no proof that he actually uttered these exact words.

However, it is undoubtedly a true statement.

You need look no further than what we have witnessed in the last year.

The problem is that when you are in the middle of a period like we have been it is easy to lose your perspective.

Let's turn the clock back one year in time.

Donald Trump had been personally charged with 88 criminal offenses in four criminal cases.

Source: https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/trumps-91-criminal-charges-and-where-they-stand/

As the Republican primaries were about to begin in early 2024 it was thought by many that Donald Trump could not survive and defend himself against these charges.

Many believed that Trump was more likely to be in prison by the end of 2024 than elected President of the United States for a second time.

Except for the highly questionable New York verdict brought by New York City D.A. Alvin Bragg, all of the other cases have imploded. 

The New York verdict is now effectively dead as Trump assumes the Presidency and that case will likely be overturned on appeal.

Trump defied all odds and was elected President of the United States.

He was effectively acquitted on all charges by the largest jury pool in history.

He ends the year as Time's Person of the Year.

A year ago we were told almost daily how sharp Joe Biden was and that he was in total command of all his faculties.

We were told by his Press Secretary that she would put Biden's stamina up against anyone.

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4319305-jean-pierre-biden-stamina-age-axelrod/

“I would put the president’s stamina, the president’s wisdom, ability to get this done on behalf of the American people, against anyone,” she added. “Anyone, on any day of the week.”

His Democrat allies and those close to him told us he was ''sharp as a tack"

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4319305-jean-pierre-biden-stamina-age-axelrod/

MSNBC commentator Joe Scarborough told us last March that Biden was the absolutely best he had ever been.

Source: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/daily-memo/2909317/the-best-biden-ever/

We were told that videos of Biden's bumbles, stumbles and stuttering nonsense were "deep fakes."

Source: https://abc3340.com/news/nation-world/white-house-claims-recent-viral-videos-of-biden-are-actually-deepfakes-president-joe-biden-karine-jean-pierre-normandy-france-apulia-italy-g7-summit-2024-election-politics

However, two weeks after the headline above appeared,  the real Joe Biden was exposed in the Trump-Biden debate that ultimately led to the Democrats forcing Biden off the ticket.

Biden was replaced by Kamala Harris.

However, a year ago there were many Democrats who were not interested in getting Biden to step aside. They wanted Biden to replace the unpopular Kamala Harris with another VP candidate.

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-shouldnt-ditch-joe-bidenthey-should-replace-kamala-harris-opinion-1809699

Source: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/09/the-case-for-biden-to-drop-kamala-harris.html

There were those arguing in The Washington Post to drop Harris as VP as late as early July of this year---less than three weeks before Biden dropped out.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/04/biden-harris-1968-nixon-convention/

Of course, Kamala Harris was anointed to become the Democrat candidate without the vote of one Democrat primary voter and was immediately hailed as a "joyful warrior" by Big Media.

Those early, heady days of her campaign, which were powered by unending positive media coverage, turned somber as Kamala proved over and over again that she could not handle the most basic questions and had trouble explaining where she stood on almost all issues.

Today it appears that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are not even on speaking terms anymore.

Source: https://nypost.com/2024/12/09/us-news/joe-jill-biden-ignore-kamala-harris-at-kennedy-center-honors/

A year ago Robert F. Kennedy. Jr. had just announced he was abandoning his effort to run for the Democrat nomination for President after being continually rebuffed by the Democrat establishment who did not want Biden to be challenged.

In October, 2023 RFK.Jr. stated that he would run as an Independent instead and work to get on the Presidential ballot in as many states as possible.

Source: https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2023/10/09/robert-f--kennedy-jr--expected-to-drop-democratic-primary-bid-and-launch-independent-or-third-party-run

That did not stop the DNC from then working to challenge Kennedy's efforts to qualify for many of the state ballots because they believed his candidacy would hurt Biden.

RFK. Jr. ultimately endorsed Trump and attempted to take his name off the ballot in all states only to have the DNC fight tooth and nail to keep his name on the ballot in a bid to hurt Trump.

Of course, the Democrats did all of that while they shouted that Trump was "a threat to democracy"!

RFK. Jr, clearly made the right call as he is now poised to become the new Secretary of Health and Human Services and will be the primary overseer of Big Pharma and Big Food which Kennedy has had a long-term interest in investigating 

A year ago Joe Biden was telling us that his son Hunter was the smartest man he knew and had done nothing wrong. 

During the past year a jury convicted Hunter on federal gun charges and he pleaded guilty to federal tax evasion and fraud charges. 

After repeatedly saying he would not pardon his son, Joe Biden recently did it anyway.

The pardon did not just extend to those crimes but any other crimes that Hunter may have committed for the last decade.

Soure: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-broke-a-promise-pardoning-his-son-hunter-raising-questions-about-his-legacy

 

A lot has changed in the last year with the Bidens.

A year ago Israel was just getting started in trying to destroy the Hamas leadership in Gaza that had planned and executed the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.

Almost all of the top leaders of Hamas that were in power a year ago have since been eliminated including Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif.

A year ago Hezbollah, which primarily operates out of Lebanon, was in the beginning stages of attempting to draw Israel into a two-front war.

This is what Israel has done to the military chain of command of Hezbollah this year.

Credit: https://x.com/SpencerGuard/status/1862653005579133232

Iran attacked Israel twice with a mix of drones and ballistic missiles.

That did not turn out well for the mullahs.

Israel has taken out all of Iran's air defense systems and Iran is now a sitting duck should Israel decide to do even more to the Iranian regime.

In Syria, the Assad regime was overthrown by an Islamist force within the last few weeks.

However, in a proactive move that has not received anywhere the media attention it deserves, Israel used 350 aircraft to totally wipe out all of the advanced and strategic capabilities of the Syrian military.

The Israelis took out Syria's fighter jets, helicopter gunships, radars, missile batteries, ships, weapon production sites, weapons warehouses, Scud missiles. cruise missile and more.

The Islamists who are taking over are going to have to start over with nothing but the rifles on their backs.

The Middle East is a far different place than it was at this time last year due to the actions of Israel in confronting the threats against it.

Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria have all been effectively neutralized.

With all of these Iranian proxies in disarray Iran is increasingly isolated.

It will not get any better for Iran when Trump enters the White House.

At the same time, all of the college protestors who a year ago were trying to stop Israel from defending itself seem to be awfully quiet lately. 

What a difference a year makes.

Let's not forget the major changes we have also witnessed in the cultural wars.

A year ago it looked like Daniel Penny would be the victim of a liberal New York City jury in the criminal homicide charges that D.A, Alvin Bragg brought against him for protecting passengers on a New York subway from a threatening, crazed man.

Penny just walked away as a free man. Would that have been possible last year?

It was just over a year ago that Bud Light was attempting to promote its brand with transgender personality Dylan Mulvaney.

Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bud-light-draws-backlash-after-promoting-trans-activist-dylan-mulvaney-but-marketing-pros-say-its-a-smart-move-9c9becac

It did not go well for Bud Light. 

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/29/business/bud-light-boycott-ab-inbev-sales/index.html

Bud Light is now running ads with this guy.

Comedian Shane Gillis in Bud Light commercial

In the meantime, companies and universities that a year ago were advancing DEI programs are suddenly in retreat.

Companies such as Walmart, Ford, Lowes, Toyota, Tractor Supply and Harley Davidson have all backed away from DEI initiatives.

The last year has also seen more and more universities dismantling DEI programs and offices.

Source: https://www.chronicle.com/article/tracking-higher-eds-dismantling-of-dei

 The change in how these programs are viewed has been astounding.

More than 200 universities in 30 states so far this year have eliminated, cut back, or changed their DEI efforts, according to an article in The Chronicle of Higher Education.

The same can be said about views on the issue of biological men participating in women's sports.

Lia Thomas was being celebrated a year ago after winning the 2022 NCAA women's 500 meter championship. Thomas had been swimming on the University of Pennsylvania men's swim team earlier in her college career as William Thomas.

2024 saw many women athletes standing up and refusing to compete against biological men competing as transgender women.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/sports/3rd-college-volleyball-team-refuses-compete-against-transgender-opponent-forfeiting-game

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/US/dozen-female-athletes-sue-ncaa-transgender-participation-policy/story?id=108185214

The LPGA and USGA implemented a new ban on transgender golfers participating in their events.

In the case of the LPGA, this was a reversal of a prior rule that had allowed transgenders to compete for the last 15 years.

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/lpga-usga-announce-new-eligibility-rules-transgender-golfers-rcna182884

So much has changed in the last 12 months.

It seems as if a decade has passed.

What has caused the change?

Has there been a change in the cosmos or geo magnetic forces?

Is it a direct result of the powerful influence of Donald Trump?

Or is Donald Trump merely the man of the hour again because he is unafraid to confront many of the issues that Americans and others around the world believe should be addressed?

What we have seen over the last 12 months may only be a precursor to much more happening as we enter 2025.

We may truly see weeks in which decades happen.

Buckle up.

There is much that can happen.

Thomas Sowell put it so well in the quote below.

At 94 years of age, Sowell is still dispensing sage advice

We have been living in a world that was based on what sounded good.

We seem to have reached the point where the people want to return to a world based on what works.

And there is no better person to lead an effort that focuses on what works rather than what sounds good than Donald J. Trump.

Thinking They Know Better

Since my last blog post that highlighted the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, the suspected killer has been captured and identified as 26 year-old Luigi Mangione.

Mangione holds bachelor's and master's degrees from the University of Pennsylvania.

News reports indicate that he was motivated to allegedly kill Thompson over contempt for corporate America and frustration with the American health care system.

Mangione had several handwritten pages on him that expressed a "disdain for corporate America" and indicated "he's frustrated with the health care system in the United States," NYPD Chief of Detective Joe Kenny told ABC News' "Good Morning America" on Tuesday.

Mangione appears to have become radicalized after dealing with a painful back issue that led to what looks to have been a spinal fusion operation.

Source: https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-a-freak-accident-turned-luigi-mangione-into-vengeful-murder-suspect/

It is not clear why he took out his frustrations on UHC because the x-ray indicates that he had back surgery.

Did UHC deny the procedure and Mangione had to cover it himself?

Did Mangione have to go through too many hoops to get the surgery covered?

Is Mangione unhappy with the surgery's result and decided it is UHC's fault for approving it?

Was it something else involving a family member?

It would not be out of the ordinary for an insurance company to question the necessity of a back surgery on an otherwise healthy 25 or 26 year old.

Back surgeries are notoriously risky procedures. The intervention often does more harm than good.

The general rule I have always heard is that resorting to back surgery should be the absolute last resort for anyone dealing with back pain.

I heard an orthopedic surgeon comment that back surgeries end up helping the patient 1/3 of the time, makes no difference in 1/3 of cases and actually worsens the situation 1/3 of the time. Those are not great odds, especially for a young man.

We will hopefully get more answers about Mangione's motives in due course.

However, what is known is that Mangione was an intelligent young man from a family of money and privilege.

His family had extensive real estate interests and owned a senior living care company

He was valedictorian at a $40,000 per year private school in Baltimore.

He has two Ivy League degrees.

How could a young man with such promise go off the rails and be accused of taking the life of an innocent man on a New York City street over health insurance?

Of course, what is really revolting about all of this are the many who are making Mangione to be some sort of folk hero.

Threats have come in against the McDonald's restaurant in Altoona, PA where Mangione was captured after an employee called police about the suspicious man that looked like the NYC person of interest.

Threats have also been made against the arresting officers.

You also have former Washington Post columnist Taylor Lorenz stating that she felt "joy" on hearing about the murder of Brian Thompson.

Link: https://x.com/ianmSC/status/1866296282215842158

Lorenz goes on to claim that "tens of thousands of Americans" are being killed each year by greedy healthcare executives denying care. Therefore, it can considered that the murder of Thompson was a form of justice according to Lorenz.

What???

Does she have any idea what she is saying?

Feeling "joy" or "justice" about the murder of an innocent man?

Claiming tens of thousands are dying each year due to denial of care by health insurance companies?

Yes, there are denials from time to time. There has to be a gatekeeper or arbiter of some type of health providers or they would have free rein to do and charge almost anything they wanted to.

However, where are the "tens of thousands of deaths"?

Could there be a few legitimate cases? Yes, that undoubtedly could be true.  But tens of thousands?

Further, is Ms. Lornenz aware that 75% of the 3.1 million deaths in the United States in 2023 were of people over the age of 65 all of which are covered under Medicare?

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7331a1.htm

Is she going to start blaming the U.S. government next for denial of care here as well?

Of course, you also have politicians like Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA) come out of the woodwork after this tragedy and start arguing that we need "Medicare for All".

Rep. Khanna believes that he knows what the country needs but he does not know the difference between REVENUES and PROFITS?

The seven largest private health insurers had $1.4 trillion in REVENUES last year, not profits.

PROFITS of the industry were $ 71 billion.

For the record. Khanna corrected his tweet after being called out for his total lack of economic or healthcare literacy.

However, those $71 billion in profits represent only about 1.5% of the $4.5 trillion that was spent on health care in the United States in 2023.

Keep in mind that this is a guy who represents Silicon Valley in Congress, went to Yale Law School and thinks he knows better than anyone about what "we" need. 

While politicians like Khanna are so concerned about profits by private health insurance companies, they don't show the same level of concern that Medicare and Medicaid are reported to lose well over $100 billon to fraud each year. A number well in excess of any "profits" by private health insurers.

Taxpayers are losing more than $100 billion a year to Medicare and Medicaid fraud, according to estimates from the National Health Care Anti-Fraud Association.

“That’s probably a conservative number,” Pérez Aybar said. “When we think about all lines of business in Medicare and Medicaid, that’s probably a drop in the bucket.”

A big reason for this is the incentives are simply not aligned properly with a government program that is attempting to manage trillions of dollars in payments.

A trio of elites from academia. big media and politics who think they know better than anyone else but clearly don't have the slightest clue about what they are saying or doing.

Luigi Mangione.

Taylor Lorenz.

Ro Khanna.

Is it any wonder that the majority of Americans spoke up in November and signaled they have had enough of being told about what they need and what to believe from the so-called "elite" class.

Are Health Insurance Executives To Blame?

The murder of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson in New York City last week has gotten a lot of attention on social media.

No motive for the murder is known right now but many have speculated it was due to the fact that Thompson was the head of an "evil" insurance company that put profits ahead of people. That line of reasoning suggests that Thompson was murdered because his company denied care to either the assassin or someone close to the murderer.

When all the facts are in we may find that the killing of United Healthcare's CEO had nothing to do with this position. However, the fact that so many are citing insurance coverage and care issues as a possible motive is very, very troubling as it shows how little most people understand about the economics of health care insurance and coverage.

I oversaw employee benefits and the health insurance program for two Fortune 500 companies in my career so I know something about the system of health care coverage in the United States.

Despite the complaints that are often voiced about the US. system, there is little question it is the highest quality and most accessible health care system in the world.

A primary reason for that is that much of it is supported by the private sector.

Health insurance companies are often made to be the villains in the system but they play an important role  in balancing accessibility and affordability.

Government controlled health programs such as those in much of Europe and Canada primarily control costs by limiting accessibility. That is why it might take many months to get care for things like hip replacements in some countries if you are not denied altogether because of your age or other conditions.

It is also a fact that the United States health system could not operate without the private sector subsidizing hospital, physician and other costs that are vastly underpaid by Medicare and Medicaid.

If you doubt that compare the reimbursement rates on what Medicare and Medicaid pay on different services compared to the rates that private insurers are paying.

Almost every hospital in the United States would be forced out of business if they had to operate with the Medicare and Medicaid payment schedules.

My two employers used both Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield and United Healthcare in the delivery of health care to our employees.

However, in that they were large employers, these companies did not provide any healthcare insurance for our employees. Both companies in which I managed the benefits function were self-insured. We only used these companies for administrative services to pay claims, provide standard medical necessity oversight and the like for which we paid a set monthly fee per employee. All the claims came back directly to the company. 

This was a surprise to most employees when they found out the reality of the insurance pool. In effect, all employees and family members were in their own insurance pool. If their fellow employee had a heart attack, was injured a major accident or had a premature baby, everyone was effectively paying a portion of the bill.

It is just one of many facts that most people do not understand about the delivery of their health care.

The other big one is how claims costs are distributed in any large health insurance pool.

The reality is that most people have very little in healthcare costs in a given year.  A handful of people will have enormous costs.  A few will have very large costs.  The majority will have almost no costs.

For example, the bottom half of a population will only consume about 3% of the costs of the group.

The top half will consume 97%.

The top 5% will consume 50% of the total health care costs.

The top 1% will consume 20% of the total costs.

This is why most people will gamble if left to their own devices if they are faced with expensive health care insurance. They will simply not part with their money today against the chance that they might get sick tomorrow. That is basic human nature.  Live for today and think about that other stuff tomorrow.

In fact, most people will pay no more than 20% of the true cost of health insurance without showing significant resistance to its cost. It is not a coincidence that many corporate plans (and even Medicare Part B premiums) charge 20% of the full cost of premium to the enrollee.

This is why Obamacare failed to attract the young and healthy to its risk pools. The insurance costs too much (even with generous subsidies) for the young.

Some of those "dancing on the grave" of Brian Thompson suggest that this would have never happened or things would be so much better if we had "Medicare for All".

One thing is for sure---if the government is the one denying care it makes it almost impossible to complain.

What do you do if your hip replacement is denied in Canada or the government tells you that you have to wait months for a heart bypass or cancer treatment?

There is nothing you can do but find your way to the United States.

In Canada, it is against the law to even go outside the system in your own province and personally pay for a necessary procedure on your own in that nation. Some are now getting around this by traveling to another province to seek care at a private clinic.

While healthcare insurance and coverage is in the news I thought it also might be a good time to republish a blog post I wrote in 2019 to provide context on healthcare costs as well as possible paths forward to improve affordability.

Nothing has really changed regarding the substance of what I wrote over five years ago. 

However, everything has gotten a LOT more expensive.

The bottom line is this----there will be no gain in making healthcare more affordable without a lot of pain.

And the pain that the Thompson family is going through right now should not be part of any of this.

No Gain Without A Lot Of Pain

(originally published April 14, 2019)

"Medicare for All" has become a popular theme for many Democrats and that party's Presidential candidates.

Bernie Sanders introduced his proposal last week. Predictably, it is short on details and makes no mention of how it would be paid for.

It is claimed that going to a government-run single payer program will massively reduce administrative expenses and lower health care costs for the American public. In so doing, private insurance companies, and their "obscene profits", will be eliminated from the system.

I have written before how the facts about healthcare costs are often much different than is portrayed by politicians and understood by most of the public at large.

For example, one fact that is often overlooked is that the average cost per day for a hospital stay is actually higher in a non-profit hospital than in a for-profit hospital. The costs are also higher in a state/local government run hospital than a for-profit one. I wrote about this in 2013 but it is still true today.

This is exactly the opposite of what Democrats would have you believe when they argue that healthcare should be a not-for-profit government function. They argue government or non-profits are able to deliver healthcare better and cheaper as there is no profit motive adding to costs.

Here are the latest average costs per inpatient day for hospitals based on ownership according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. All of the other charts below are also from the KFF with the exception of the out-of-pocket expenditures by country comparison chart which is based on WHO data.

When you consider that hospital costs are the largest component of national health expenditures, it would seem to be a pretty significant fact that for-profit hospitals are over 20% less costly than non-profits.

Why is this? I explained in my previous post.

A big reason for the higher costs with non-profit hospitals is the lack of accountability. They are not accountable to tax collectors, shareholders, and most particularly, patients (due to our third party payment system where it is rare that the bill is paid by the person receiving the treatment).

How about another fact that most people are not aware of? Many complain about high deductible plans today, which has meant more out-of-pocket spending by patients. However, the reality is that out of pocket costs still make up only 11% of total U.S. health care expenditures in the United States. In 1970, it was 33%.

Americans are also paying less of the total share of national health expenditures in out-of-pocket expenses than other countries.

How much better can it get on this score? Would "Medicare for All" lower these "out of pocket" costs? Our out of pocket costs are already lower than in the "socialist" systems.

Let's also look at the components of U.S. national health care expenditures to determine how big the effect would be if we could reduce administrative costs (including all private insurance profits) from the system.

Here is where the $3.5 trillion in healthcare expenditures went in 2017 that represented about 18% of the entire GDP of the country.

Hospitals account for 33% of all costs. Physicians and clinics are 20%. Drugs are relatively small at 10%.

Administrative costs (included in other health costs above) make up just 7.4% of total costs. This includes all private and public plan administrative expenses and all the profits of the private insurance companies. 92.6% of healthcare costs would remain even if you removed all private insurance companies and administrators in the system.

In other words, you could eliminate all the administrative costs that are being paid for by all the private insurance plans, Medicare and Medicaid and you would only save about one year of health care inflation.

Granted, there are internal administrative costs in the costs of each hospital and medical provider but it strains credulity to believe that this alone is going to significantly lower healthcare costs in the United States.

Total expenditures per capita have increased 30-fold since 1970. Adjusted for inflation, costs have increased 6-fold!

What can be done? There is no easy answer despite what glib politicians might tell you. In fact, as I have written before in my post "Why Is Health Care So Expensive", everything suggests that the problem will get even worse no matter what the policymakers do. Every factor is trending against controlling health care costs.

More and more medical technology becomes available everyday. Americans have rebelled against every attempt to limit choice in selecting doctors, hospitals, etc. Americans are getting older. Americans are not getting any healthier and the United States still has more money to spend on healthcare than any other country. Attempts to control costs are akin to trying to change course heading into a Category 5 hurricane.

How could health care costs take a smaller bite of our economy and household budgets?

There are only three options.

1. Hospitals, doctors and other providers have to make less money.

2. Patients need to see their care rationed or limited in some way.

3. We all need to get a lot healthier.

"Medicare for All" sounds great as a theory. 56% in a recent poll stated they favored the idea. They liked the idea of guaranteed health insurance (71% favor) and eliminating health insurance premiums and reduced out of pocket expenses (67%),

However, support collapses when people hear exactly how the plan would have to work--eliminate private health insurance (37%), require most people to pay taxes (37%), threaten current Medicare (32%) and delays in getting medical tests and treatments (26%).

The bottom line is this.

There will be no gains in controlling healthcare costs without a lot of pain on someone...and most likely, everyone.

Don't let any politician convince you otherwise.

If you want to actually consider a system of healthcare that might work at controlling costs, while serving the American people better, read my previous blog post "Revolutionary Replacement".