The Power of a Preference Cascade

Human beings are social animals.

Societies from the beginning of time have been built upon families, tribes, groups and human relationships.

For most of history these relationships were a critical element in survival. Those that did not congregate and collaborate were at much greater personal risk.

Those who were outliers and did not conform to the customs, conventions and mores of the group were at risk of being shunned and banned.

There remains a strong desire to conform today even if if it is not as crucial to survival as it once was.

For example, take a look at this image of students being led from their school in Madison, Wisconsin after the horrific shooting in that city on Monday that I noticed in coverage of the killings.

I guess you are only cool if you wear pajama bottoms to school.

Source: https://beelineblogger.blogspot.com/2024/12/where-does-trump-stand-on-time.html

The desire to conform is strong in all of us.

This is true even if you privately believe the group is off base or wrong in what they are saying or doing.

It is far easier to conform and not stick your head out from the crowd. Being part of the crowd carries less risk. It is safer to be a part of the crowd so you can avoid being called out or noticed.

You may even "go along to get along" to keep the peace and not make waves.

That describes me during Covid.

I had done all the research and wrote extensively in these pages about the total lack of any evidence that wearing a surgical or cloth mask provided any protective benefits against the Covid virus.

However, despite that knowledge and belief, I dutifully put on a skimpy mask when I went into a grocery or other store during Covid. It just was not worth the dirty looks and scorn I would get if I did not conform to the narrative.

That is an example of what is called Preference Falsification.

My public action was contrary to what my private beliefs were on the benefit of wearing a mask.

Here is an article on Preference Falsification in Psychology Today.

In its worst manifestation, people will even take actions against their own self interest in a false belief in order to gain favor with what they believe to be the majority view.

For example, consider the woke turn that Disney took despite the fact that its core business market was family entertainment.

Source: https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/02/19/disney-a-billion-dollar-casualty-of-woke/

The woes facing Disney illustrate the powerful hold wokeness now has on big corporations. It’s as if Disney’s leaders felt compelled to toe the line on the identitarian agenda. They were prepared to trash the company’s reputation and alienate its fans, seemingly just to signal their allegiance to this new elite ideology.

Or Bud Light deciding it would help their brand identity and sell more beer by featuring a transgender personality in their advertising.

How do we get to a place that big brands like Disney and Bud Light would blow up billions of dollars of company value on actions that were in direct contradiction to the traditional views of its consumer base?

It was preference falsification. Disney and Bud Light were more concerned with attempting to curry favor by aligning with the woke narrative and the elites who promoted it.

The Leftists in America have spent decades bullying people into believing "woke" ideas on race, gender and politics. Constant media repetition amplified those ideas until anyone who might question the narrative thought they were the outlier.  If anyone did voice objection, they were mobbed or canceled which meant that over time fewer and fewer were willing to speak up. 

After awhile most everyone believes the narrative is the majority view, even if it is false.

This is why totalitarian governments spend so much time and effort on propaganda and using the police to crush even minor dissent. They want to create the illusion that all is well and make sure that anyone who might dissent does not understand the full extent that fellow citizens similarly dislike the regime. This is why preference falsification is such a powerful force.

However, even more powerful is a preference cascade.

A preference cascade occurs when the false spell is broken and masses of the discontented who believed they were alone come to realize that their beliefs are widely shared.

This is when revolutions occur or when a massive change in public attitudes becomes apparent.

Preference falsification may build slowly and stealthily.

However, a preference cascade occurs quickly when the falsification unwinds suddenly and causes a rapid transformation of society around the new found shared majority beliefs surprising outside observers and citizens alike.

The seminal academic work on preference falsifications and preference cascades is contained in a book written by economist Timur Kuran that was originally published in 1995.

Source: https://www.amazon.com/Private-Truths-Public-Lies-Falsification/dp/0674707583

I have come across a large number of people since the election remark how they feel as if something fundamental has changed in the last month.

The best explanation for that is the power of a preference cascade.

Donald Trump winning the recent election with a popular majority was an important turning point.

It showed to a number of people that they were not crazy. They were not alone. They were not misinformed. They do not have to remain silent for fear of being marginalized or maligned.

By the same token, it has caused those who relentlessly pushed the woke agenda, DEI, open borders, antisemitism and the like that they hold minority views. It has been a humbling experience and to this point it appears that they do not quite know how to react.

The realization that the Trump voters are in the majority and the Democrats on their heals is a powerful combination and we seem to be in the midst of preference cascade that may lead us into further transformation in society.

Of course, there is little doubt that Donald Trump is most responsible for this massive change in psychology.

He was the one man who was not afraid to stand up and speak his mind going all the way back to 2015.

Make no mistake that a big reason that the Democrats, Big Government and Big Media attacked Trump so viciously over the last decade is that he was such a threat to the preference falsification narrative they were using to maintain power.

The same is true for Elon Musk after he bought Twitter. When Musk committed Twitter (now X) to being the free speech outlet when every other major social media and Big Media platform was promoting the preference falsification narrative, it opened up more eyes and became harder to keep the false illusion alive.

We are in a different place today primarily due to Trump and Musk.

We don't yet know where all of this will lead.

However, do not underestimate the power of a preference cascade.