Hope Is Not Enough

It was announced last week that the FDA has approved two new Covid vaccine boosters---a Pfizer and Moderna version.

Source: https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2024/08/22/nx-s1-5082372/updated-covid-vaccines-fda-approved

These vaccines were developed to target the KP.2 variant which is in the Omicron group.

However, the Covid cases now circulating have already been overtaken by even newer variants.

As you can see, the KP.2 variant only represents about 3% of current Covid cases according to CDC data.

The KP.3 and KP3.1.1 now account for over 50% of Covid cases.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-summary

The article following the headline reported that the vaccine has been approved on a HOPE.

Both target strains have already been overtaken by even newer variants, but they’re all still part of the omicron group. The hope is the vaccines are close enough to boost immunity and protect people through the rest of the surprisingly big summer wave and the surge expected this winter.

Is "hope" enough when it comes to a medical intervention that may have benefits but could also have risks?

The FDA announcement on the new Covid boosters comes shortly after both Joe Biden and Dr. Anthony Fauci were reported to have contracted Covid recently. It was the third infection for both.

In Fauci's case it came after having received six shots of the Covid vaccine since they were first made available.

Link: https://x.com/nataliegwinters/status/1822998724387241993

It was then reported that Fauci was hospitalized for a week with West Nile Virus shortly after his bout with Covid.

Source: https://apnews.com/article/fauci-west-nile-virus-mosquito-georgetown-33ba3fdf19025d6a4e2b5b29139f6973

Is this mere coincidence?

Or does it have something to do with a suppressed immune system due to Covid, Fauci's age or the vaccine doses he took over time?

It would be nice to know but there continues to be little interest about looking into that last possibility to this day.

However, not having any real answers does not stop the FDA, the CDC and others continuing to tell people to take the shots based on HOPE.

Despite what the authorities may say about the vaccines, it is apparent that most people around the world have made their own judgment regarding the effectiveness and advisability of taking the vaccine.

You could say they have lost hope in the effectiveness of the Covid vaccines.

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Daily vaccine doses administered in the United States is not even reported by the CDC any longer. It stopped reporting that data over a year ago.

However, the CDC does report cumulative vaccine doses that have been given for Covid and the flu during the current flu season from September thru May.

Only 13% of those 18 and over (34 million/260 million) took the Covid vaccine in the United States during the last year.

By comparison, about 80% took at least one dose of the Covid vaccine in the 2021-2022 period.

Of course, a not insignificant portion of those were due to the force of mandates.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/coverage/covidvaxview/interactive/adult-vaccinations-administered.html

It is interesting to note that there were almost 30 million more flu shot vaccines administered this season than there were Covid vaccines---63 million compared to 34 million.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/dashboard/vaccination-administered.html

However, it appears that distrust in the Covid vaccine has caused more people to also become skeptical about the benefits of the flu vaccine over the last three years.

Flu vaccine doses that were administered dropped by 22% between the 2020-2021 season and 2023-2024.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/dashboard/vaccination-administered.html

Has the lack of trust that the public has in what they were told about the Covid vaccines resulted in more skepticism about the value of other vaccines?

That is the reason that a foundation of trust is so critical in our governmental institutions if we are to have a well functioning society.

One person who has been very skeptical of the government institutions that oversee the nation's health standards is Robert F; Kennedy, Jr. 

Kennedy has been particularly critical of the FDA, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the CDC for the unhealthy symbiotic relationship between these agencies and the corporate interests they are supposed to regulate and oversee.

The endorsement that RFK, Jr. has provided to Trump and the apparent commitment that Trump has made to include RFK in his administration, if he is elected, holds promise that we will see more accountability in this area.

Consider the comments that Kennedy made in the announcement endorsing Trump.

”These agencies—the FDA, USDA, and CDC—are all controlled by giant for-profit corporations. Seventy-five percent of the FDA funding doesn't come from taxpayers; it comes from pharma, and pharma executives, consultants, and lobbyists cycle in and out of these agencies. With President Trump's backing, I'm going to change that. We're going to staff these agencies with honest scientists and doctors who are free from industry funding. We're going to make sure the decisions of consumers, doctors and patients are informed by unbiased science.”

There is a debate about whether the endorsement of Trump and the fact that Kennedy is taking his name off of the ballot in the swing states will benefit Trump or Harris more in the coming election,

I am of the mind that it is a net benefit to Trump based on two factors.

1) Trump lost some support he had in 2016 and 2020 to those that were unhappy with his Covid response, particularly his support for the vaccines. This was especially true regarding Trump's unwillingness to admit that Operation Warp Speed was not the success he claimed it to be. Getting RFK.Jr. on board should bring those voters back to him.

2) RFK, Jr. joining Trump clearly shows that the Democrat party of his father and uncle no longer exists. There are obviously traditional Democrats who have become disenchanted with what the Democrat party has become but to this point were not comfortable in voting for a Republican. Kennedy was the alternative for them this election. The Kennedy endorsement of Trump may be the final push those voters needed to finally break the ties they had to the past.

We will see what the polls say over the next week or so.

One thing is for sure. The timing of the RFK, Jr. endorsement has muted any post-convention momentum for Harris.

The Trump campaign's pollster indicates that they expect that RFK being out of the race will benefit Trump by 1%-2% at the margin in the swing states.

That might not seem a lot but consider the small margins that Trump lost the following states by in 2020.

Arizona            .4%

Georgia             .3%

Michigan         2.8%

Nevada              2.4%

Pennsylvania    1.2%

Wisconsin           .6%

However, just like the deployment of the vaccine, hope is not generally enough when it comes to winning elections (with the obvious exception of the 2008 election of Barack Obama's "Hope and Change" election).

The 2024 election promises to be extraordinarily close.

A slip of the tongue or external event that no one expects could easily decide the race one way or the other.

Kamala's camp is managing her campaign to avoid a slip of the tongue at all costs sheltering her from any unscripted appearances before the media or the voters. Her campaign strategy is apparently based on "Hope and Joy"

We are beyond the Democrat convention and Kamala still does not have any policy statements or positions on any issues on her campaign website.

Can she get away with running for President without the voters knowing anything about what she really believes or what her agenda will be for the next four years?

Will the new Covid vaccines get any acceptance from the public?

Hope is not enough.

Many seem to have also uttered this phrase but it is hard to ignore it coming from a coach who always preached preparation, a focus on fundamentals and execution to his players.