That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen

One of the most interesting trends in American politics over the last 25 years has been the shift we have seen in party identification between college and non-college educated voters.

College educated voters tended to be Republicans a generation ago.

Non college educated voters were likely to vote Democrat.

These previous norms have completely flipped.

In fact, the more education someone has the more likely they are to vote Democrat.

You can see how the trend in the party identification among college-educated voters has changed in the chart below.

50% of college-educated voters identified as Republicans in 2000. That number has dropped to 40% in 2020.

Only 39% of college-educated voters identified as Democrats in 2000 compared to 53% in 2020.

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/gop-faces-massive-realignment-it-sheds-college-educated-voters-n1264425

Donald Trump won the majority of non-college educated voters in 2020 51%-48% according to exit polls.

However, Joe Biden won the college-educated vote by 55%-43% overall. 

Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

Trump won white non-college educated by 67%-32%.

Biden's margin narrowed to 51%-48% with white college educated voters.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

The shift of non-college voters to Trump and the Republican party makes sense in that the Democrats generally consistently ignored this group of voters for years.

Democrats did nothing as manufacturing in the United States was hollowed out, the party put more attention to courting minority groups, importing illegal immigrants and pursuing a woke agenda.

The trend to the Republican party among these working class voters started before Donald Trump but it gained real momentum when Trump gave voice to these concerns beginning in Obama's second term.

The shift of college-educated voters to the Democrat party is more puzzling. It is not as easy to understand it logically. In fact, it makes little sense.

Some of it is undoubtedly the result of the increased numbers of younger voters that are college graduates.

I have always believed that academia and young college graduates skew to the liberal side of politics in that they tend to view the world in theoretical and idealistic terms.

Democrats favor policy solutions based on how they think the world should work in theory. This is what college students are taught over and over again in the classroom.

Most liberal ideas are well meaning and well intentioned. In a theoretical laboratory these ideas may make a lot of sense. 

Of course, the real world does not exist in theory. People act and make decisions based on their self interest which can be influenced by incentives and disincentives. A reality where unintended consequences often have much greater effects than the intended consequences.

Republicans look at issues much more based on how the real world really operates in practice. They tend to be more pragmatic and practical in their outlook, This is why voters tend to be more conservative the older they are. Theory is replaced with practical experience and common sense.

What is particularly confounding to me in looking at the political divide today is that most of the major issues today are complex. They are mult-layered and multi-dimensional. There are few simple answers. It requires thinking beyond the first order.

There are visible effects in many policy solutions but there are also many secondary and tertiary effects that are not immediately visible. It requires real critical thinking skills (or plain old common sense) to balance all of this---the SEEN and UNSEEN.

You would think that those who have the most education would possess the critical thinking skills that could best balance the seen and unseen effects in assessing issues of policy involving politics.

Instead, it seems that the more education one has, the greater the likelihood that they do not possess the  level of critical thinking or common sense to see beyond theories to the reality of the real world in which we live.

How is it that high graduates seem to have more common sense than highly educated college and post-college graduates?

How come they seem to see things that their more educated fellow Americans do not?

I wrote about the interesting aspects about various political issues on what is SEEN and UNSEEN ten years ago in these pages.

This might be a good time to revisit that blog post.

What I wrote then seems as true today (if not even more so) as it was in 2014.

Kamala Harris is the embodiment of SEEN thinking. Every policy prescription only considers first-order SEEN effects. There is no consideration of UNSEEN effects.

That type of thinking by our leaders is a sure road to ruin.

In addition, keep in mind how hard Kamala Harris is working in this campaign to keep what she really believes to be UNSEEN.

Why is that?

In this election keep in mind that which is SEEN and that which is UNSEEN.

It will make you a better informed and reasoned voter.

Seen and Unseen (originally published February 20 , 2014)

I came across this insightful observation last week in John Mauldin's Thoughts from the Frontline blog quoting an essay written by Frederic Bastiat in 1850, "That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen".

There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.

In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.

I think this observation also applies in explaining the differences between Democrats and Republicans.

I have always believed that a fundamental difference between a Democrat and Republican is how they view the world. Democrats see the world in much more theoretical and idealistic terms. Republicans tend to be more practical and pragmatic in their outlook.

Democrats want policy solutions based on how they think the world should work in theory. Republicans favor policies based on how the world really works in practice.

Bastiat's essay has given me one more perspective on the difference in thinking between Republicans and Democrats.

Democrats generally confine themselves solely to visible effects. They seem to consider only first-level effects and ignore everything else that might flow from that.  All of their focus is on what they see in front on them. They ignore the unseen issues. Republicans, on the other hand, are considering both the immediate effects and second-level effects. The seen and the unseen.  Especially the unseen effects which should be foreseen.

Let's look at a few issues that show you what I am talking about.

Deficit spending- Democrats focus almost solely on spending more on today's needs that they see. Continuing to borrow and spend money we don't have is totally justified over what that debt will do to unseen generations in the future.

Healthcare reform- Obamacare was justified in Democrat minds in order to solve the immediate problem of uninsured Americans.  They totally ignored the fact that the solution would completely undermine the health care system for unseen millions of Americans who already were satisfied with their coverage.

Minimum wage- Democrats want to raise the minimum wage because they believe it will alleviate the poverty problem they see.  However, they totally ignore the unseen after-effects in that the minimum wage increase will undoubtedly result in long-term job losses. For example, the CBO estimates that raising the minimum wage to $10 per hour could result in the loss of 500,000 jobs by 2016.

Immigration- Democrats want to legalize millions of immigrants who have entered the United States illegally and who we see everyday around us.  However, when calling for this they totally ignore the unseen potential immigrant who has been waiting patiently in line for years to come to this country illegally.  They also don't consider the effects that amnesty will have on encouraging even greater illegal immigration in the future.

Welfare-  Democrats can't do enough to help people in need that they see.  Food stamps, housing assistance, Medicaid, long-term unemployment assistance.  It is natural to want to help people who need the help.  However, what about the unseen problem that in all of this we may also be creating a cycle of dependency?  In the end our compassion may feed the problem rather than solve it.

Abortion- A woman who is pregnant is seen and known.  An unborn baby is unseen and unknown for most Democrats. We see the life affected today with that pregnancy.  The life of that baby's future is unseen.

Gun control-  A person with a gun who uses it in a horrific crime is seen.  Democrats see that.  However, unseen are the millions of guns in the hands of law-abiding Americans as well as the thousands of crimes that may have been deterred by that fact.

Transgenders- (edit-this is a 2024 addition to the list) In their zeal to support "equality" and gain favor with the LGBTQ+ community, Democrats argue that rest rooms need to be open to trangenders, biological men should be able to play women's sports and minors should have irrevocable sex change surgeries. What is unseen is that almost no woman wants a man in her bathroom. allowing biological men to play women sports is unfair, dangerous and inimical to women's rights while promoting life altering sex change operations for minors has untold potential long-term adverse effects over a lifetime. 

My point is that it is easy to see visible effects. They are right in front of you.  However, as Bastiat observed over a century and a half ago, we rarely see single effects, but a series of effects. Good government policy should dictate that we should not be focusing on the seen, but on the unseen.  This is particularly the case with the unseen effects that should be foreseen.

Unfortunately, Democrats consistently seem to be only interested in what they see right in front of them. They seem to believe we live in a simple, superficial, single dimension universe. The fact is that our world is getting more complex everyday and that type of thinking is a sure road to ruin.

As we look at government policy we need to not only consider what we see right in front of us but what is also down the road and around the curve.  It takes deep thinking. On issue after issue it is hard to detect that Democrats see any of it.

This observation might have been unseen to you before.  I hope that you see it now.

Supermen

"All men are created equal." 

This fundamental truth was penned by Thomas Jefferson when he wrote the Declaration of Independence.

Of course, it is also true that all men do not use all of their skills and abilities to achieve extraordinary results in their life.

History shows that their number to be extraordinarily low.

Thomas Jefferson was such a man as was George Washington and Benjamin Franklin.

They all excelled in a number of spheres of life.

When I was a younger I marveled at what a man named Pete Dawkins had accomplished in his life.

How could one man be so good at so many things?

At age 11, Dawkins was successfully treated for a case of polio.

He went to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point where he was a running back on the Army football team from 1956-1958.

He won the Heisman Trophy and Maxwell Award as the top college football player in the nation in 1958.

Credit: https://www.pristineauction.com/a5097373-Pete-Dawkins-Signed-Army-Black-Knights-8x10-Photo-Inscribed-Heisman-58-Beckett-COA

At West Point, Dawkins was the Brigade Commander, was class President and was a Star Man (top 5% of his class) in addition to being the captain of the football team.

A cadet is considered outstanding if he attains one of these positions. Dawkins was the only cadet in history to hold all four at once. 

In addition to all of that, Dawkins also played hockey at West Point where he was an assistant captain.

He is considered the most decorated West Point cadet of all time.

Upon graduation, Dawkins was awarded a Rhodes Scholarship and studied for two years in England at Oxford University.

At Oxford, he took up rugby and became one of the elite players in that game as well.

Upon returning to the United States to serve in the Army, Dawkins finished Infantry and Ranger schools before serving in Vietnam where he earned two Bronze stars.

He later served as a White House Fellow and earned both a Masters Degree and PhD from Princeton University.

He retired from the Army as a Brigadier General after 24 years of service and worked in both investment banking and business consulting.

He later became Chairman and CEO of Primerica, a financial services firm.

Dawkins ran for the U.S. Senate in New Jersey in 1988 and lost to incumbent Democrat Senator Frank Lautenberg by eight points. It was a rare setback in the life of Dawkins who is the oldest living Heisman winner today at age 86.

I don't know that I have ever seen a better resume than that of Peter Dawkins.

A true Superman.

There are many who will not want to admit it but Donald J. Trump also has to be considered a Superman.

How many people can you name that have achieved the level of success he has in the three different areas during their lifetimes--- business, entertainment and politics?

A billionaire businessman. The star of a top-rated television show. President of the United States.

On the Forbes 400 list for wealth. On a list of just 46 Presidents of the United States. Recognized with a star on Hollywood Boulevard along with Marilyn Monroe, Walt Disney, Lucille Ball and Tom Cruise among others..

This is a picture I took of Trump's star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame when I was in Los Angeles recently.

Pick any three major areas of endeavor and give me another name or two that compares with what Trump has done over his lifetime. It is not an easy task. 

If you think of someone, please list them in the comments section.

This brings us to Elon Musk.

As I have written before, when the definitive history of the early 21st Century is written I will be surprised if Elon Musk is not considered the most consequential person of this period.

Musk may yet have the potential to be remembered as the most consequential individual in the history of mankind short of Jesus Christ.

Musk developed and marketed the first popular mass-produced electric vehicle---the Tesla

Leveraging off of Tesla he has created an energy storage business for homes and huge "megapacks" for utilities that extend the usefulness of solar and wind-powered generators.  Some analysts value that Tesla Energy business at $600 billion of value by itself.

Musk created SpaceX with the audacious goal of colonizing Mars. In the process he has basically taken over the U.S. space program. SpaceX is on track to carry 90% of all earth payloads in the world into space orbit this year. It is even more impressive when you consider the fact that he is competing against government controlled space programs such as China, Russia, Japan and India.

Musk developed the Starlink communication system that allows for any cellphone in the world to be connected to the internet. There are more than 6,400 Starlink satellites in orbit already that have been launched by SpaceX. I recently was able to stay connected 24/7 while on a ship in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

Musk is also working on autonomous driving, humanoid robots, robotaxis, electric semi trucks, advanced artificial intelligence applications, implanted chips to cure paralysis and much more in addition to owning the preeminent free speech platform ("X") in the world.

It seems that the fact that Elon Musk bought Twitter to protect free speech is the reason that the liberals and progressives have now made Elon public enemy #1 after Donald Trump.

This tweet on X below sums it up pretty well I believe.

The rocket he launched was larger than the Saturn V rocket that sent men to the moon with over 2.5 times the thrust and power. 

Musk also attended the Trump rally in Butler. PA which seems to be another reason for Democrats to hate him.

If you have not seen the launch and catch of the Starship Super Heavy booster I recommend you view this three minute highlight reel.

It is one of the most astounding engineering feats in the history of man.

If you want to have a glimpse of what else Musk is working on this is a 7 minute video of Elon explaining his robotaxi, robovan and humanoid robots at an event he held last week in LA.

Link: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/videos/see-teslas-musk-introduce-new-cybercab-robotaxi/

Elon Musk is literally transforming the world around us before our eyes.

You would think that he would be getting all of the encouragement and support he could from our government officials.

You would be wrong.

Last December the FCC rejected Starlink's proposal to provide broadband services to rural areas in the United States. 

       

Source: https://www.aha.org/news/headline/2023-12-13-fcc-rejects-starlink-bid-bring-broadband-services-rural-areas

The Federal Communications Commission Dec. 12 rejected an application by Starlink for nearly $900 million in Rural Digital Opportunity Funds to bring broadband services to rural locations, including health care facilities, concluding the application failed to demonstrate the company could deliver the promised service.

The FCC said this in December but it is Starlink that is providing the necessary broadband access in the isolated and devastated sections of western North Carolina in the wake of Hurricane Helene?

Something does not add up here.

In the meantime, Biden/Harris received $42 billion in allocated funds from Congress in 2021 and have yet to connect one single household to broadband in the United States under the program.

Source: https://reason.com/2024/06/27/why-has-joe-bidens-42-billion-broadband-program-not-connected-one-single-household/

At the same time. Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota stated last week that Minnesota is providing $52 million in state grants to expand broadband access to over 7,500 homes and businesses in the state.

Let's do the math.

$52 million for 7.500 homes and businesses is almost $7,000 per hookup.

The cost of a Starlink terminal installed in a home is only $349 in hardware costs.

Source: https://www.starlink.com/us/residential

Perhaps Tim Walz and Kamala Harris need to be introduced to Elon Musk?

If you do not think politics is involved here, also consider the fact that the state of California just refused permission for Musk's SpaceX program to expand launches in that state because they don't like his politics and his tweets.

Even more incredibly, the Biden/Harris Department of Justice is suing SpaceX for alleged discrimination in not hiring asylum seekers and refugees from countries such as Afghanistan, Haiti and Venezuela

Source: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-spacex-discriminating-against-asylees-and-refugees-hiring

I think that those working at SpaceX are doing a pretty good job without the extra help.

In addition, who thinks it is a great idea to hire non-citizens from these countries to work on the sensitive technology that SpaceX is developing and deploying?

This guy on X puts all of what Elon Musk is doing in perspective.

(Click to enlarge)

Source: https://x.com/Devon_Eriksen_/status/1845479747020640570

This is why I believe that Elon Musk is the most consequential individual of this era.

Can you imagine shutting all of this innovation down because of politics?

Can you imagine having the opportunity to have this man working for free to recommend better and more efficient ways to run the federal government?

Musk has made that offer to Donald Trump.

It is not often that a Superman comes along to save the day.

It is even rarer to have two Supermen on the same team that are dedicated to making America and the world greater.

Forget about the politics.

The 2024 vote is most assuredly about our future.

All men are created equal.

However, some just get far more done than others.

You might not choose either of these men to be your pastor or have them marry your daughter.

However, when it comes to your future and that of your children and grandchildren, is there any better choice before you?

Let's start a SpaceX type countdown.

5, 4, 3, 2, 1....before liberal brains explode after reading this blog post and seeing these images.

Credit: Craiyon.com

This and That----October 11, 2024 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.

Fair Share Backfire

In my last blog post ("Truth About Taxes") I wrote about the plan by Kamala Harris to tax the rich.

Her plan appears to be to either enact a tax on unrealized gains or the net worth of the wealthy.

Kamala claims it would be done in order to insure that billionaires pay their "fair share".

Norway is one of the few countries in the world that still has a wealth tax.

Most countries who tried it have abandoned the idea because it resulted in the mass exodus of capital from their country.

In the mid-1990's as many as 12 countries imposed wealth taxes. That number is now down to 4---Columbia, Norway, Spain and Switzerland.

It seems that people with a lot of money have options about where they live and invest their money.

Norway increased its wealth tax to 1.1% annually after Norway's Labor Party made good on a 2021 election promise to increase the taxes on the rich.

In the year after the wealth tax increase, 30 of Norway's richest people left the country. That was more than in the previous 13 years combined.

Source: https://aier.org/article/norways-wealth-tax-is-backfiring-are-americans-paying-attention/

The wealth tax increase was supposed to raise tax revenues by $150 million annually.

The most recent estimate is that the wealth tax is now brining in $594 million less (a 40% decrease) than it did before the tax was increased. This is due to the $54 billion that wealthy Norwegians took with them when they left the county.

The problem with any tax proposal is that you are dealing with human beings that react to incentives and disincentives that destroy most static economic models. People are going to do what is in their economic self interest. They could care less about the fiscal interests of government.

Does Kamala Harris understand this? I know Donald Trump does.

Massachusetts---What Is Going On?

Massachusetts is one of the most reliably liberal states in the union.

It has only voted for the Republican candidate once in the last 40 years.

Source: https://www.270towin.com/states/Massachusetts

It is sure to do so again in 2024 in that Donald Trump was only able to garner 32% of the vote in Massachusetts in 2020.

Massachusetts has a population of 7 million.

However, over 37% of that population. (2.6+ million ) has an active EBT (food stamp) card.

More astounding is the fact that the number of EBT cards in that state has increased by 35% in the last year alone.

I can only draw two conclusions from this data.

Bidenomics has either failed the state completely or the fact that Massachusetts is a sanctuary state has not proven to be a very smart decision for the taxpayers of the state.

Is it any wonder that Republicans have little chance in Massachusetts when almost 40% of the population is dependent on the welfare state?

What did I say about incentives above?

Dependency on the Government

Speaking about dependency, here is an interesting graphic showing the change in the percentage in the population that is dependent on government transfers as a share of total personal income.

In 1970, there were only small pockets (yellow) in the United States where people were dependent on government transfers for 25% or more of their personal income.

In 2022, the exact opposite was true. The small pockets (green) were those areas that were not relying on government transfers for more than 15% of their income.

Credit: https://x.com/StephenMoore/status/1842176853236126111

Is it any wonder that we have $2 trillion annual federal deficits for as far as the eye can see?

What Media Bias?

Compare the New York Times coverage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 vs. Hurricane Helene in 2024.

What could be the reason?

A Bad Dad Day for Tropicana x 2

Did anyone else notice that Wednesday turned out to be a bad day for anything named Tropicana?

The day started in Las Vegas where the iconic Tropicana Hotel was imploded to make way for a new ballpark for the Philadelphia, Kansas City, Oakland, Sacramento, Las Vegas Athletics.

Source: https://www.the-sun.com/news/12632605/las-vegas-tropicana-hotel-implodes/

Credit: AP

The day ended with Tropicana Field, the home of the Tampa Bay Rays, having its roof ripped off by Hurricane Milton.

Source: https://nypost.com/2024/10/10/sports/tropicana-field-roof-ripped-off-destroyed-during-hurricane-milton-in-st-petersburg/

Northern Lights

Picture of Northern Lights taken last night in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Truth About Taxes

There is no issue that Kamala Harris and the Democrats demagogue more on than the subject of taxes.

Here is what Kamala Harris said on 60 Minutes this week in an interview with Bill Whitaker when questioned about how she planned to pay for her spending plans.

"Well, one of the things I'm going to make sure that the richest among us who can afford it pay their fair share in taxes. It is not right that teachers and nurses and firefighters are paying a higher tax rate than billionaires and the biggest corporations. And I plan on making that fair."

She says that Donald Trump blew up the federal deficit with tax cuts for the rich.

We often hear that the Trump tax cuts that were passed in 2017 only benefited the rich.

She says that billionaires pay a lower tax rate than firefighters nurses and teachers.

She says that she is going to make sure the rich pay their fair share so that she can pay for her liberal fantasies.

Let's consider some truths about taxes.

Did Donald Trump cause the deficit to rise because of tax cuts?

The truth is that federal tax revenues increased from $3.32 trillion in fiscal year 2017 (the year before the Trump tax cuts took effect) to $4.90 trillion five years later in fiscal year 2022.

That is an increase of almost 50% in revenues over the five-year period.

How many Americans saw their personal incomes increase almost 50% over that time?

What about federal spending?

Federal government spending was $3.98 trillion in fiscal year 2017.

By 2022 it had grown to $6.27 trillion. This was actually down from the $6.55 trillion it was in 2021 due to Covid spending. However, even now that we are beyond Covid, spending in 2024 is going to come in at close to $7 trillion.

We are currently looking at $2 trillion annual federal deficits for as far as the eye can see.

How can Kamala Harris and the Democrats say that the Trump tax cuts blew up the federal deficit?

The truth is that increased spending, inflation and interest rate increases on the federal debt (due to inflation) have been the primary reasons that the federal deficit has grown.

The Biden/Harris agenda has contributed far more to the budget deficit than any Trump tax cuts.

Did the Trump tax cuts only benefit the rich?

Nothing could be further from the truth.

In the first full year of the Trump tax cuts an analysis of the IRS data showed the following.

Taxpayers with adjusted gross income (AGI) of $15,000-$50,000 enjoyed an average tax cut of 16%-26% between what they paid before the Trump tax cut and what they paid after.

Taxpayers with AGI of $50,000-$100,000 received an average tax break of 15%-17%.

Those earning $100,000-$500,000 received an average tax cut of around 9%.

The average tax cut for those earning $1 million or more was less than 6%.

Do billionaires pay a lower tax rate than the middle class?

Let's look at the latest data on the projected distribution of income, taxes and average tax rates for 2024 as compiled by the Joint Committee on Taxation.

A few truths from that data.

* On incomes below $60,000 the average income tax rate is negative. These taxpayers are getting more back from the federal government in refundable tax credits than they are paying in income taxes.

*The average income tax rate for those with incomes between $60,000-$80,000 and $80,000-$100,000 (the likely incomes levels for most teachers, firefighters etc) is 1.5% and 2.7% respectively.

*The average income tax rates for those with incomes of $1,000,000 or more is 24.8%---10 times the average income tax rate of those middle class teachers and nurses.

*The most obvious measure of paying a "fair share" of income taxes would be calculated in such a way that the share of taxes collected would be equal to the share of income of each income group. For example, a group earning 10% of the income would logically pay 10% of the total taxes. 

However, under the current income tax system in the United States, for all income groups below $200,000 their share of income taxes is less than their share of income. Such is the case with the progressive income tax system we have. The tax rate increases at higher levels of income.

For example, those earning $1 million or more per year have 15.5% of the share of income but are paying 39% of the income tax burden.

Those earning $500,000 or more have 23% of the share of total income but are paying 54% of the total income tax burden.  

The top 2% of income earners are bearing 54% of the federal income tax burden.

What is a fair share?

*Even if the taxes on millionaire earners were doubled it would only bring in $800 billion in added revenues.  That is not even equal to half of our current annual budget deficit. Kamala says that she is only going to raise taxes on BILLIONAIRES. The math simply does not work unless she is intent on confiscating most of their wealth.

* I also found it interesting in looking at the data that it is projected that 1 million tax returns are expected to be filed in 2024 with incomes of $1 million or more. I don't know that there could be a better testament on the privilege it is to live in a country founded on capitalism and the free enterprise system than that statistic.

That is equal to 0.6% of all tax returns filed.

Put another way, in a city where 10,000 tax returns are filed, 60 would have incomes greater than $1 million. 

Where is this possible anywhere else in the world than the United States of America? 

Considering all of the above, how is it that Kamala Harris and the Democrats can claim that billionaires are paying a lower tax rate than those in the middle class?

The only way they can do it is by counting unrealized gains as income. Of course, the increase in value of shares of stock, a home, a farm or a piece of art is not income. However, the Democrats want to pretend it is. More than that, they actually want to start taxing these unrealized gains as income.

Biden/Harris had previously proposed a minimum tax of 20% on the unrealized "income" of billionaires in their 2024 budget request to Congress. 

For example, a tech founder owns $1 billion in stock and the stock increases in value to $1.5 billion during the year, they would owe a tax of up to $100 million on the $500 million paper gain – even if they didn’t sell a single share.

Of course, where do they get the cash to pay the tax if all of their wealth is wrapped up in the stock?

What if the stock goes down in price the next year?

How do you even calculate the unrealized gains in privately-held stock, or art or real property each year without a subjective and expensive appraisal?

The truth is that administrative complexity is a major reason that UNREALIZED gains are not considered income under the Internal Revenue Code. This is also the norm around the world 

France instituted a wealth tax in 2000. It eventually led to the exodus of 42,000 millionaires from the country and French President Macron eliminated it in 2018. All that remains is a real estate wealth tax that only applies at rate of .5%-1.5% on real estate values above EUR 1.3 million.

One of the other reasons is that taxing such gains would likely be UNCONSTITUTIONAL (See my discussion of this topic in a blog post I wrote in 2019, "Wealth Tax-Unworkable and Unconstitutional" when Bernie Harris and Elizabeth Warren were pushing the same agenda that Harris is in taxing wealth rather than just income.)

However, obeying the Constitution is not something Biden and Harris have considered an obstacle in the past (e.g. student loan forgiveness, suppression of free speech, etc.)

It is also apparently lost on Biden, Harris and the Democrats on what such a "tax the rich" system would do to create disincentives to creating further wealth and opportunities for the public at large.

The truth about taxes when it comes to Democrats is that no matter what anyone pays it is never enough.

The truth is also that any new tax is always just going to be imposed on "the rich''.

That is the case until those taxes are also not enough and the new tax is soon applied to everyone.

Watch your wallet.

It most assuredly will not be safe if Kamala Harris has anything to do with it.

That is real truth you can believe in.

Vance and Vivek

The general election is 29 days away and the outcome of the Presidential race is uncertain.

What is certain is that J.D.Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy have established themselves as the two brightest stars in politics over the course of the Presidential campaign.

J.D.Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy

This is particularly interesting in that a year ago almost no one knew anything about either of them.

Vance had just taken office as a Senator from Ohio (his first political race) in January, 2023.

Ramaswamy had entered the Presidential race as the longest of long shots in that he had no political background or experience at all.

Both J.D. and Vivek have demonstrated over the last year that they have two qualities that are foundational for success in any sphere of life.

People who are successful must either be extremely competent or have the ability to make connections with others.

It is almost impossible to succeed at anything unless you have one of these traits.

The rare person is someone who is both very competent and extremely adept at making connections with other people.

Vance and Vivek have both of those skills.

They are both very intelligent and understand the details of public policy.

However, they have also shown that they also have the ability to connect with the public in communicating in such a way that they can take complicated issues and simplify their messages for the masses.

What is mosts interesting to me is taking a little deeper look at both young men.

The first thing that stands out is how young both Vance and Vivek are. 

Vivek is only 39 and Vance just turned 40. 

They are also both Republicans. There is no one in the Democrat party that I can think of that is remotely in the same class as J.D. and Vivek are considering their ages.

They are both from Ohio.

In fact, Vance and Vivek grew up and went to high school within 30 miles of each other.

J.D. Vance went to Middletown H.S. in Middletown, Ohio and Vivek graduated from St. Xavier H.S. in Cincinnati, Ohio.

They both come from non-traditional family backgrounds far removed from anything like the Bush family.

Vivek is the son of two Indian immigrants who did not come to the United States until they had finished their educations in India.

Vance was raised for the most part by his grandmother as his single mother struggled with addiction and relationship issues during much of his childhood. His grandmother had come north to Ohio as a teenage bride from the hills of Kentucky as her husband looked for work in the steel mills of Ohio.

There could not be much better evidence that the American Dream is still alive than to look at the career trajectories of J.D. and Vivek.

Vance and Ramaswamy both ended up at Yale University law school where they were classmates. Both graduated in the class of 2013 along with Vance's wife, Usha.

In fact, J.D. and Usha's 4-year old son is also named Vivek.

There is no indication that the young Vivek was named for Ramaswamy but the older Vivek has stated that Usha was a family friend before she met J.D.

Both Vance and Vivek were also very successful in the private sector before entering the political arena. Whether Donald Trump wins of loses it is already assured that Vance and Vivek are big winners this year.

A Trump win puts J.D. Vance a heartbeat away from the Presidency.

However, even with a Trump defeat Vance has positioned himself to be a frontrunner for 2028 while he returns to the U.S. Senate.

Vivek will likely have the opportunity to serve in the Trump administration in some capacity if Trump wins. 

I personally would like to see Vivek in the role of Press Secretary where his excellent communication skills would be best utilized.

It is unlikely that Ramaswamy would serve more than a year or so with Trump in that recent polling in Ohio indicates that he is the favorite of GOP voters in the state for the gubernatorial office in 2026.

Source: https://ohio.news/articles/trump-keeps-lead-in-ohio-as-moreno-closes-on-brown-and-vivek-leads-governors-race-new-polls-signal-national-realignment

Of note, Vivek is preferred by large margins compared to a number of long-time Ohio Republican politicians such as Lt. Governor  Jon Husted, Attorney General Dave Yost and former Congressman and 2022 GOP gubernatorial contender Jim Renacci.

A Trump loss would allow Vivek to immediately begin raising money and begin his campaign for Governor.

Vance and Vivek.

2024 has been a very good year for both young men.

Heads they win. Tails they also win no matter what happens in November.

The future may even be brighter for these products of the Buckeye state.

Hurricane Helene

The aftermath of the effects of Hurricane Helene on the Appalachian regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina are gut wrenching.

Even worse seems to be the response of federal authorities for assistance to those in so much need.

I well remember the media condemnation of the George W. Bush administration response after Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans.

We are seeing relatively sparse coverage of the Helene disaster compared to what we saw with Katrina in 2005.

We are also seeing very little criticism of the federal response to Helene or of the Biden/Harris administration in comparison to Bush and Katrina.

It could be the coverage is diminished because we are dealing with largely rural areas that are spread out compared with Helene to the relative ease to cover New Orleans with Katrina.

It could also be that the media does not want to shine a light on the failures going on with Helene to harm the chances of Kamala and the Democrats next month.

What is most disturbing is the confession by Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas that more disaster relief funding will not be forthcoming because FEMA  does not have the funding to do so.

Keep in mind that FEMA has an annual budget of over $30 billion and has almost 15,000 full-time equivalent employees.

What is the problem?

It seems that Biden and Harris have been using FEMA money to house and shelter the illegal immigrants who took advantage of the Biden/ Harris open border policy over the last several years.

Credit: https://x.com/BreannaMorello/status/1841811723507880393

In total, almost $1 billion of FEMA funds were siphoned away to take care of illegals which has left little for the U.S. citizens affected by Helene to help them recover from the disaster.

$641 million was spent on illegals from FEMA just this year and another $350 million was spent last year.

What makes all of this so unfathomable is that Biden and Harris created a man-made disaster at the border and then raided the FEMA funds meant for natural disasters like Helene to pay the costs associated with the border invasion they caused.

It is beyond me how in any sane world the people responsible for any of this could in any way have any prayer to continue in office. 

I have written several times in these pages before about the compounding effects of illegal immigration.

There is no better example of that in what we are seeing transpire in the aftermath with Helene.

That $1 billion in FEMA funds should be readily available to deploy to help Helene's victims recover.

The fact that it is not available is a direct result of the illegal immigration that has taken place over the last four years.

Illegals have been given a higher priority than U.S. citizens.

It is unconscionable.

Even more disturbing is the suggestion from some that Biden/Harris are slow walking the relief to the affected area in North Carolina since it is largely made up of counties that voted heavily for Trump in 2020.

Buncombe county (Asheville) is one of the outliers here in that Biden won 60%-39% with a 34,000 vote margin.

We are also hearing the familiar refrain from Democrats in the aftermath of Helene that all of this was due to climate change.

The scale of this disaster from the hurricane and flooding this far inland is something few of us have seen in our lifetimes.

However, this area of the country has seen similar flooding in the past.

For example, Asheville, NC saw similar flooding in 1916 and 1940.

This is a picture from the 1916 flood which many state was worse for the city than what we have seen with Helene.

Credit: https://x.com/JunkScience/status/1841882646294724973

Note that the picture above is from an article written last year.

Here is the front page of the local paper reporting on the flood in 1916.

Credit: https://x.com/TonyClimate/status/1840806236616273943

What were the carbon emissions in 1916?

You may recall Al Gore telling us right after Hurricane Katrina that powerful hurricanes would become the norm rather than the exception.

Can you find the climate change in this table or evidence that hurricanes have gotten more prevalent or stronger compared to what we saw before 1950 when man-made carbon emissions really started to increase? 

In fact, the trend has actually been the opposite since the 1930's based on this analysis by climatologist and former NASA scientist Dr. Roy Spencer .

Unfortunately, we have had to deal with hurricanes and floods since the beginning of time on earth.

Natural disasters are a part of life. Man is not capable of controlling the forces of nature.

However, man-made disasters such as the border invasion under Biden/Harris should never have occurred.

And the victims of Helene are paying an even greater price because of it.

May they be in everyone's thoughts and prayers as they attempt to rebuild their lives.

It's Criminal

Whenever I have heard Donald Trump talk about the illegal immigrant invasion he refers to the fact that a large number of the migrants have come from jails in their home counties.

He refers to many of the invaders as drug dealers, murderers and rapists.

I always thought that this was Donald Trump using puffery or exaggeration to make his case.

Donald Trump is known to exaggerate from time to time. 

"It was the most beautiful thing ever."

"It was a perfect phone call."

I thought the same was true in Trump's description of the illegals.

Yes, they should not be here. They have broken the law and gotten in front of others who are obeying the law to gain residency in the United States. However, they are trying to escape bad situations in their home countries. The fault does not completely fall on them for coming here. Most of it is on those in our own government who left the border completely open and did not enforce the law.

A report issued last week by the Biden's administration own Deputy Director of ICE has caused me to not doubt Trump when he talks about illegal immigration.

The report details the number of illegals that were detained and released in the country who have been convicted of crimes or have pending criminal charges pending.

The numbers are SHOCKING.

These are just the number for those who have been convicted of crimes.

13,099 murderers

2,521 kidnappers

9,461 sex offenders

15,811 rapists

10.031 robbers

2,200 prostitutes

56,533 drug dealers

62,231 assault convictions

In total, 425,431 convicted criminals have been encountered at the border and released to go free.

Another 222,141 illegal immigrants encountered at the border and released into the United States have pending criminal charges outstanding.

All of this from people who are not supposed to be in the United States at all!

You can see all the data for yourself below which was contained in a letter from the Deputy Director of ICE (Patrick J. Lechleitner) to Representative Tony Gonzales.

If you watch the mainstream media networks and have not seen the story you can be assured that it was not your fault.

When the report came out on Friday it seems that they decided that this data was not newsworthy to share with you.

I wonder why?

 

Link: https://x.com/TPostMillennial/status/1840152495492083805

A familiar narrative from Democrats when attempting to defend the uncontrolled illegal immigration into the United States the last four years is to say that illegals commit crimes at a rate no higher than native born citizens.

Let's look at that statement in more detail.

In 2023, 34% of all criminal sentences for federal crimes were for non-citizens.

Source:  https://www.ussc.gov/research/quick-facts/federally-sentenced-non-us-citizens

88% of these criminal sentences were for illegal aliens. Only 9% were for legal aliens.

The latest Census Bureau estimate is that non-citizens make up 14% of the U.S. population. Illegal aliens commit a disproportionate number of federal crimes relative to their population size.

These statistics also do not include crimes committed at the state and local level.

Let's take a look at the specific crime statistics in the ICE report and put them in context.

13,099 convicted murderers and 1,845 pending criminal charges for illegals who were released into the country after initially being detained.

15,831 convicted rapists and 4,250 pending criminal actions for sexual assaults for illegals released into the country.

In the United States, there are 163,000 people in prison currently for murder and 168,000 for rape and sexual assault.

This is in comparison to a total population of about 340 million.

The incidence rate for a conviction for murder is about .00047941.

For rape/sexual assault it is .00049412.

No one really knows how many illegals have entered the United States the last few years.

The best estimate is that approximately 10 million have entered during the Biden administration.

Based on that number, the incidence that a murderer is among that illegal group based on the ICE data is .0014944.

That is over 3 times compared to that of the U.S. population at large.

 

For rape and sexual assault, the incidence of a rapist among the illegals detained and released by ICE is over 4 times the general U.S. rate.

The Biden/Harris administration has literally opened our borders and purposely allowed known criminals to enter the United States without a second thought.

It is difficult to fathom how they could allow any of these criminals to enter the country when they knew of the criminal records at the time these illegals were originally detained. However, despite this, these criminals were not blocked from entering the country and were released into the country with U.S. taxpayers footing the bill for their housing, food and health care.

What is worse we now have Kamala Harris on the campaign trail telling us she knows how to fix the border.

I guess she kept it a secret for the last four years.

I have written before about the compounding effects of illegal immigration.

We have not begun to see the full effects that this uncontrolled immigration will have on our society in the future.

The immigration laws were established to provide order for our society. The laws were considered necessary to provide for the entrance of an established number of immigrants annually that could be assimilated without disrupting and degrading the experience of U.S. citizens and others who are rightfully here.

The compounding effects of uncontrolled immigration is the reason that the immigration laws were put on the books in the first place.

When the law is ignored or not enforced, chaos is sure to follow due to the compounding effects of large numbers of people the society is not prepared for.

Adding too many immigrants, too quickly, puts added pressure on the social order if those immigrant numbers outpace the ability to integrate and assimilate them into the general population.

If you doubt any of this consider the horrific effects of Hurricane Helene on the people in the lower Appalachian area recently.

It is going to take billions and billions of dollars to rebuild the lives of the people in this region.

Money that would be more available if it had not been spent on millions of illegal immigrants.

To make matters worse, some of the illegals have made the problem even worse by descending on the flood areas and looting what little the people of these areas had left.

Do these look like "good old Southern boys"?

What more can you say?

It's criminal what has been done and what is being done to the United States of America by both the illegals and Biden and Harris.

Just one more reason that the 2024 election is undoubtedly the most consequential election in the history of the United States.