That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen

One of the most interesting trends in American politics over the last 25 years has been the shift we have seen in party identification between college and non-college educated voters.

College educated voters tended to be Republicans a generation ago.

Non college educated voters were likely to vote Democrat.

These previous norms have completely flipped.

In fact, the more education someone has the more likely they are to vote Democrat.

You can see how the trend in the party identification among college-educated voters has changed in the chart below.

50% of college-educated voters identified as Republicans in 2000. That number has dropped to 40% in 2020.

Only 39% of college-educated voters identified as Democrats in 2000 compared to 53% in 2020.

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/gop-faces-massive-realignment-it-sheds-college-educated-voters-n1264425

Donald Trump won the majority of non-college educated voters in 2020 51%-48% according to exit polls.

However, Joe Biden won the college-educated vote by 55%-43% overall. 

Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

Trump won white non-college educated by 67%-32%.

Biden's margin narrowed to 51%-48% with white college educated voters.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

The shift of non-college voters to Trump and the Republican party makes sense in that the Democrats generally consistently ignored this group of voters for years.

Democrats did nothing as manufacturing in the United States was hollowed out, the party put more attention to courting minority groups, importing illegal immigrants and pursuing a woke agenda.

The trend to the Republican party among these working class voters started before Donald Trump but it gained real momentum when Trump gave voice to these concerns beginning in Obama's second term.

The shift of college-educated voters to the Democrat party is more puzzling. It is not as easy to understand it logically. In fact, it makes little sense.

Some of it is undoubtedly the result of the increased numbers of younger voters that are college graduates.

I have always believed that academia and young college graduates skew to the liberal side of politics in that they tend to view the world in theoretical and idealistic terms.

Democrats favor policy solutions based on how they think the world should work in theory. This is what college students are taught over and over again in the classroom.

Most liberal ideas are well meaning and well intentioned. In a theoretical laboratory these ideas may make a lot of sense. 

Of course, the real world does not exist in theory. People act and make decisions based on their self interest which can be influenced by incentives and disincentives. A reality where unintended consequences often have much greater effects than the intended consequences.

Republicans look at issues much more based on how the real world really operates in practice. They tend to be more pragmatic and practical in their outlook, This is why voters tend to be more conservative the older they are. Theory is replaced with practical experience and common sense.

What is particularly confounding to me in looking at the political divide today is that most of the major issues today are complex. They are mult-layered and multi-dimensional. There are few simple answers. It requires thinking beyond the first order.

There are visible effects in many policy solutions but there are also many secondary and tertiary effects that are not immediately visible. It requires real critical thinking skills (or plain old common sense) to balance all of this---the SEEN and UNSEEN.

You would think that those who have the most education would possess the critical thinking skills that could best balance the seen and unseen effects in assessing issues of policy involving politics.

Instead, it seems that the more education one has, the greater the likelihood that they do not possess the  level of critical thinking or common sense to see beyond theories to the reality of the real world in which we live.

How is it that high graduates seem to have more common sense than highly educated college and post-college graduates?

How come they seem to see things that their more educated fellow Americans do not?

I wrote about the interesting aspects about various political issues on what is SEEN and UNSEEN ten years ago in these pages.

This might be a good time to revisit that blog post.

What I wrote then seems as true today (if not even more so) as it was in 2014.

Kamala Harris is the embodiment of SEEN thinking. Every policy prescription only considers first-order SEEN effects. There is no consideration of UNSEEN effects.

That type of thinking by our leaders is a sure road to ruin.

In addition, keep in mind how hard Kamala Harris is working in this campaign to keep what she really believes to be UNSEEN.

Why is that?

In this election keep in mind that which is SEEN and that which is UNSEEN.

It will make you a better informed and reasoned voter.

Seen and Unseen (originally published February 20 , 2014)

I came across this insightful observation last week in John Mauldin's Thoughts from the Frontline blog quoting an essay written by Frederic Bastiat in 1850, "That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen".

There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.

In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.

I think this observation also applies in explaining the differences between Democrats and Republicans.

I have always believed that a fundamental difference between a Democrat and Republican is how they view the world. Democrats see the world in much more theoretical and idealistic terms. Republicans tend to be more practical and pragmatic in their outlook.

Democrats want policy solutions based on how they think the world should work in theory. Republicans favor policies based on how the world really works in practice.

Bastiat's essay has given me one more perspective on the difference in thinking between Republicans and Democrats.

Democrats generally confine themselves solely to visible effects. They seem to consider only first-level effects and ignore everything else that might flow from that.  All of their focus is on what they see in front on them. They ignore the unseen issues. Republicans, on the other hand, are considering both the immediate effects and second-level effects. The seen and the unseen.  Especially the unseen effects which should be foreseen.

Let's look at a few issues that show you what I am talking about.

Deficit spending- Democrats focus almost solely on spending more on today's needs that they see. Continuing to borrow and spend money we don't have is totally justified over what that debt will do to unseen generations in the future.

Healthcare reform- Obamacare was justified in Democrat minds in order to solve the immediate problem of uninsured Americans.  They totally ignored the fact that the solution would completely undermine the health care system for unseen millions of Americans who already were satisfied with their coverage.

Minimum wage- Democrats want to raise the minimum wage because they believe it will alleviate the poverty problem they see.  However, they totally ignore the unseen after-effects in that the minimum wage increase will undoubtedly result in long-term job losses. For example, the CBO estimates that raising the minimum wage to $10 per hour could result in the loss of 500,000 jobs by 2016.

Immigration- Democrats want to legalize millions of immigrants who have entered the United States illegally and who we see everyday around us.  However, when calling for this they totally ignore the unseen potential immigrant who has been waiting patiently in line for years to come to this country illegally.  They also don't consider the effects that amnesty will have on encouraging even greater illegal immigration in the future.

Welfare-  Democrats can't do enough to help people in need that they see.  Food stamps, housing assistance, Medicaid, long-term unemployment assistance.  It is natural to want to help people who need the help.  However, what about the unseen problem that in all of this we may also be creating a cycle of dependency?  In the end our compassion may feed the problem rather than solve it.

Abortion- A woman who is pregnant is seen and known.  An unborn baby is unseen and unknown for most Democrats. We see the life affected today with that pregnancy.  The life of that baby's future is unseen.

Gun control-  A person with a gun who uses it in a horrific crime is seen.  Democrats see that.  However, unseen are the millions of guns in the hands of law-abiding Americans as well as the thousands of crimes that may have been deterred by that fact.

Transgenders- (edit-this is a 2024 addition to the list) In their zeal to support "equality" and gain favor with the LGBTQ+ community, Democrats argue that rest rooms need to be open to trangenders, biological men should be able to play women's sports and minors should have irrevocable sex change surgeries. What is unseen is that almost no woman wants a man in her bathroom. allowing biological men to play women sports is unfair, dangerous and inimical to women's rights while promoting life altering sex change operations for minors has untold potential long-term adverse effects over a lifetime. 

My point is that it is easy to see visible effects. They are right in front of you.  However, as Bastiat observed over a century and a half ago, we rarely see single effects, but a series of effects. Good government policy should dictate that we should not be focusing on the seen, but on the unseen.  This is particularly the case with the unseen effects that should be foreseen.

Unfortunately, Democrats consistently seem to be only interested in what they see right in front of them. They seem to believe we live in a simple, superficial, single dimension universe. The fact is that our world is getting more complex everyday and that type of thinking is a sure road to ruin.

As we look at government policy we need to not only consider what we see right in front of us but what is also down the road and around the curve.  It takes deep thinking. On issue after issue it is hard to detect that Democrats see any of it.

This observation might have been unseen to you before.  I hope that you see it now.