LIV Golf---Merge or Die?

LIV golf has just started its fourth season.

Shortly after the LIV golf tour kicked off as a competitor to the PGA Tour in 2022 I wrote a blog post ("Will The LIV Golf Tour Live") assessing its future prospects.

I understood that LIV had the backing of Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) which is the sovereign wealth fund of that oil rich nation. The main objective of the PIF is to diversify the petrodollars coming into other endeavors.

I also recognized that LIV was attracting some big names to its tour by offering huge guarantees for PGA Tour players to defect. 

A lot of money was thrown around by LIV and the Saudis to attract big names like Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau at the outset of the tour.

Those players were each estimated to get money guarantees of over $100 million.

Jon Rahm was brought into LIV in 2024 with an estimated financial package of $300 million.

From the outset it has been difficult for me to understand the financial model that the PIF was using to justify all of this 'investment".

This is what I wrote about LIV golf in July, 2022.

It is tough for me to figure out what is the end game for the Saudis.

If they are investing a billion dollars or more in a fledging golf tour they undoubtedly expect a return on that investment.

They clearly have to expect that the PGA Tour will ultimately pay them off someway (through a legal settlement) or some type of merger will eventually occur that allows them a return on the money they are putting into this.

This has usually been the outcome when other upstart professional leagues (AFL, ABA etc) set out to compete with established pro circuits.

However, it is difficult for me to see there is enough money in the game to justify the high upfront payments that LIV is paying to players.

As I saw it in 2022, LIV had two big problems.

1) Where was LIV going to go to get the big sponsorship deals to rival what the PGA Tour had? This is a big source of revenue for the PGA Tour. If LIV could get some of these dollars to flow their way they would have a chance. Without it, it was hard to see how it would survive on its own.

FedEx, AT&T, RBC, Coca-Cola and all the corporate sponsors are the ultimate key to all of this.

If sponsors decide to start spreading their marketing dollars to include LIV, the PGA Tour is going to have problems.

However, until that happens, LIV's prospects are not good.

Almost three years later LIV has not been able to attract any large sponsors. 

2) Would LIV be able to secure a tv deal to showcase the talents of its players? If not, the players would become increasingly irrelevant due to lack of media exposure.

LIV may have guys who can play the game but it is going to be difficult to get and sustain an audience.

At a minimum, LIV needs a tv deal which it does not have right now. They then need to get people to watch it.

The reality is that the "kingdom" of golf revolves around the four major championships and the PGA Tour. If you are not playing in these events it is going to be hard to maintain relevancy as a competitor.

The LIV players are going to be irrelevant in the golf kingdom despite the fact they are getting paid a lot money by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Brooks Koepka won the PGA Championship in 2023 and Bryson DeChambeau won the U.S. Open last year but for the most part LIV golfers are invisible due to lack of tv exposurse.

LIV did secure a tv deal with the CW Network the last two years but the ratings were abysmal compared to the PGA Tour's numbers. For example, fewer than 100,000 viewers watched Jon Rahm win the 2024 individual championship.

A new tv deal was secured for 2025 with Fox where tournaments will be seen on either the Fox or Fox Sports 1 or 2.

However, the tv ratings are no better this season,

Ratings for the first event in Riyadh were embarrassingly small.

Only 54,000 average viewers watched the final round in Saudi Arabia.

How should we view the first batch of LIV Golf Fox TV ratings?

Well, it depends on what you think about LIV Golf.

Let’s start with what we know. According to multiple sources and as first reported by the Twitter account @YeahClickClack, coverage of LIV Riyadh’s final round on FS1 and FS2 drew audiences of 54,000 and 31,000 average viewers, respectively. According to the same Twitter account, Thursday’s opening-round coverage from Saudi Arabia on FS2 drew 12,000 average viewers.

By comparison, the PGA Tour drew almost 3,000,000 viewers for the final round of the WM Phoenix Open. 

LIV did better with its second tournament in Australia but the ratings are still a fraction of the PGA Tour's.

However, it should be noted that the live coverage was on air very late in the United States Eastern time zone.

What really tells the story of where LIV golf stands is the recent news out of the UK that reported LIV's revenues for 2023 for its non-U.S operations. These represent about half of LIV's events.

Sportcal.com reports that LIV only generated $37 million in total revenues in 2023 and had a net loss of almost $400 million.

It also reports that the Saudi PIF has "invested" close to $4 billion into LIV.

Source: https://www.sportcal.com/financial/liv-golf-hits-the-rough-in-2023-financials-with-non-us-revenue-below-par/

LIV Golf’s UK arm published its financial accounts for the 2023 calendar year this week which are relevant for the entirety of the tour’s non-US business. The highlight – or lowlight – is an overall loss of $395.94 million, $152.2 million more than the $243.7 million loss it made a year prior.

The Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund (PIF) sovereign wealth vehicle has now piled close to $4 billion in investment into the LIV Golf breakaway tour, but losses at the sports property are continuing to mount.

LIV golf is four years into this and has almost no major sponsors, little revenue and almost non-existent tv ratings after spending $4 billion.

They have a handful of golf superstars but hardly anybody sees them play.

The exception is the Adelaide tournament which has drawn well in Australia but that is not enough by itself to justify the PIF investment.

To put into perspective how horrendous the LIV revenue numbers are, consider the fact that Scottie Scheffler, the leading money winner of the PGA Tour in 2024, apparently made more money last year ($102 million) than LIV's total revenue,

Source: https://www.sportico.com/personalities/athletes/2025/scottie-scheffler-pga-tour-golf-earnings-2024-1234827982/

You may recall that it has been almost two years since LIV and the PGA Tour announced a proposed merger.

Source: https://en.as.com/other_sports/why-has-the-pga-tour-liv-golf-merger-taken-so-long-and-when-will-it-happen-n/

However, the two have still not reached any definitive agreement despite a lot of talk.

The PIF must be getting impatient in seeing losses pile up month after month.

The PGA Tour should be in a much better negotiating position than it was in 2023.

However, there is little doubt that the sponsors and fans of the PGA Tour are also getting impatient for some form of reunification of the game's top players.

That is probably a big reason that we saw both sides meet recently with President Trump in an attempt to bring the parties together.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/sports/golf/trump-meets-tiger-woods-part-pga-tour-liv-golf-talks-2025-02-20/

It looks to me that LIV golf must merge soon...or DIE.

LIV golf (the Saudi PIF fund) is too motivated to find a way to get a return on their money to allow it to die right now.

The PGA Tour is also intent on getting some of that Saudi money infused into the PGA Tour.

After all, money talks.

It will be a shock to me if a definitive merger agreement of some sort is not announced by the two parties in the very near future.

Stay tuned.