I attended a junior high school track meet last week to watch my grandson compete.
He ran the 1600 meters, 400 meters and 4 x 200 meter relay but in between his events I caught some of the high jump competitors.
They all approached the bar and thrust their head and shoulders over the bar going backwards and then pulled their legs over the bar at the end.
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| Credit: https://www.teachpe.com/sports-coaching/athletics/high-jump/high-jump |
It is a vastly different technique than what was used in the high jump when I was in middle school.
When Dick Fosbury was a sophomore in high school he could not clear 5 feet which was the minimum qualifying jump height for many high school meets.
Fosbury high jumped like everyone else did in his sophomore year using the so-called ''straddle method" where he approached the bar and thrust one leg up and over the bar and ended up with his body straddling over the bar as he attempted to get his trailing leg over as well. |
| The Straddle Method Credit: http://www.knowqout.com/sports/the-man-who-took-jumping-to-new-heights/ |
How did he improve so rapidly? He ignored the conventional wisdom and found a better way to clear the bar. His new high jump method became known as the "Fosbury Flop."
This is how Fosbury describes it.
I take off on my right, or outside, foot rather than my left foot. Then I turn my back to the bar, arch my back over the bar and then kick my legs out to clear the bar.”
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| The Fosbury Flop Credit: http://www.knowqout.com/sports/the-man-who-took-jumping-to-new-heights/ |
Five years after Fosbury started experimenting with his new method he won the Gold Medal at the 1968 Olympics in Mexico City.
By the next Olympics, 28 of the 40 competitors were using the Fosbury Flop. Today you don't find anyone doing anything else.
Fosbury's idea and his independence about ignoring conventional wisdom changed the world of high jumping.
I doubt that any of those middle schoolers at the track meet even knew that there was a time when everybody did not high jump the way they were doing it.
Pete Gogolak was another individual thinker who came up with a better way to placekick a football.
Gogolak was the first college football kicker to kick the football soccer style rather than the straight ahead style that had been in use for decades. Rather than use the toe to kick the ball, Gogolak kicked the ball with the instep of his foot similar to the way he had learned to kick a soccer ball in his native Hungary.
Pete Gogolak kicking at Cornell University
Credit: Cornell University Athletic Communications
The rest is history. Gogolak (as well as his younger brother Charlie) went on to the NFL and changed the way the ball was kicked forever. There are no longer any kickers who toe the ball like Lou "The Toe" Groza did.
Fosbury and Gogolak proved that conventional wisdom and consensus are not always correct.
We hear a lot about the the consensus of scientists and others these days.
However, conventional wisdom or consensus is not scientific fact.
A scientific fact is the law of gravity, the boiling point of water or the distance to the moon.
Prior to the 15th century, the consensus of scientists was that the earth was the center of the universe.
In the 18th century, the consensus of medical scientists was that blood letting was the best method to cure illness.
As recently as 35 years ago the consensus was that peptic ulcers were caused by stress. We now know it is caused by bacteria.
I could go on and on. In fact, in most cases like these, the consensus of scientists was proven wrong by one person who did not believe the consensus and proved it wrong.
Much of the success of Elon Musk with Tesla and SpaceX is due to the fact that he is not willing to accept the the constraints of consensus, conventional wisdom or "that is the way it has always been done".
Time and again as challenges were met at SpaceX or Tesla, Elon would be unwilling to accept that something could not be done to solve the problem or improve the process.
Elon Musk believes that anything that is not prohibited by the laws of physics is capable of being accomplished given sufficient knowledge and effort.
Simply stated, if the law of physics does not prevent it, man can attain it. Physics is the only constraint when looking to solve a problem. If physics does not dictate it can't be done, there is a solution.
This philosophy imbues Musk with a unique optimism that allows him and those he leads to overcome incredible obstacles.
For example, consider this image I saw recently about how SpaceX's Raptor engine has evolved under Musk's guidance.
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| Source: https://x.com/GaurabC/status/1915012865075106199 |
The Raptor 3 engine delivers 51% more thrust with 36% less weight than the Raptor 1 engine.
All because Elon would not accept conventional wisdom or traditional thinking.
Our experiences of the last few years should have reinforced the basic truth to beware conventional wisdom and consensus.
Do you remember when the consensus was the best way to treat serious Covid was with a ventilator?
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| Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/03/18/905222/we-need-more-ventilators-heres-what-it-will-take-to-get-them/ |
Hundreds of millions of dollars were spent manufacturing ventilators in early 2020.
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| Source: https://x.com/toobaffled/status/1918079681255096627 |
How often do we hear about the consensus of scientists when it comes to climate change?
Those scientists are telling us that rising CO2 levels are going to warm the planet.
However, in the late 1970's and early 1980's the concerns were just the opposite.
Time magazine's cover story of December 24, 1979 was about the cooling of America.
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| Source: https://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19791224,00.html |
Here is a headline from 1982 about fears that rising carbon dioxide levels could cause another ice age.
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| Credit: https://x.com/JunkScience/status/1918153976932954416 |
What is the next item of consensus or conventional wisdom that could be turned on its head?
I am interested in seeing what HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy finds in his study of the possible causes of autism.
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| Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj0z9nmzvdlo |
The data would seem to suggest that something is not right somewhere.
The consensus is that this is due to genetics or increased awareness in that more cases of autism are being identified and diagnosed than was the case in the past.
It would surprise me if RFK, Jr. can arrive at a satisfactory answer in that short period of time considering the complexity and the wide spectrum of autism cases as well as the entrenched attitudes about the issue today.
For example, consider this headline of last week on the reaction of health experts that HHS is now going to order placebo testing on all new vaccines.
Why would this be alarming?
I think most people assume this is already the standard protocol.
However, this has not typically been done with childhood vaccines.
The argument is that if a new childhood vaccine is developed it is unethical to withhold the vaccine to the placebo test group.
This was also why the Covid vaccine control groups in the clinical test period were cut short which did not allow for a full assessment of possible longer term side effects from these vaccines.
An initial assessment was made that the vaccines were "effective" and it was then determined that all participants in the clinical trial control group should get the vaccine on ethical grounds. This then foreclosed any determination if the vaccines were safe and without side effects for the longer term.
A consensus seems to have also developed during Covid that the Pfizer vaccine was the "better" vaccine.
About 60% more Pfizer Covid vaccines doses were administered in the United States than were Moderna doses.
However, a recent study done involving all Florida adult residents who took the Covid vaccines between December 18, 2020 and August 31, 2021, involving almost 1.5 million matched institutionalized adults who received at least two doses six weeks apart, found the following in a 12 month follow up period.
(All numbers deaths per 100,000)
Covid Mortality Pfizer 55.5 Moderna 29.5
Non-Covid Mortality Pfizer 791.6 Moderna 588.4
Cardiovascular Mortality Pfizer 248.7 Moderna 162.4
All Cause Mortality Pfizer 847.2 Moderna 617.9
Wouldn't it have been nice to have this information earlier?
What was missing from the study was an analysis comparing vaccinated vs. unvaccinated adults. What would that data show?
Of course, we found during Covid that it wasn't just enough to have consensus.
The United States government and many in the mainstream media, and other governments around the world, determined that there was no room for any differences in opinion or dissent on dealing with Covid. Differing views and opinions were censored or labeled as misinformation.
We can only hope that our experience doing Covid is a cautionary tale for the future.
Conventional wisdom and consensus is not always right.
In fact, at times it is 100% wrong.
Dick Fosbury proved that.
So did Pete Gogolak.
Beware conventional wisdom and consensus.
It is only by doing so that societies improve and advance.
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