DC Crime Crackdown

President Trump is taking a lot of heat from Democrats on his crackdown on crime in Washington, DC.

Democrats claim that this is another example of an unhinged Trump being a dictator.

They say that everything is fine in the nation's capital and crime has been dropping the last few years so this crackdown on crime is unnecessary.

That claim might be more credible if a police commander in the city had not just been placed on leave for deliberately falsifying crime data.

Credit: https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1954935183511343318

However, even if you agree that DC crime rates have improved, it seems that the city has a long way to go in comparison with other world capitals.

Credit: https://x.com/AAGDhillon/status/1953518617124818948

It is also interesting to see the underlying statistics involving homicides in Washington, DC.

The National Institute for Criminal Justice Reform prepared a "Gun Violence Problem Analysis" of all homicides in the city between January, 2021 and December, 2022. that was published last year.

This is a breakdown on the homicides and non-fatal shootings in DC for that period by sex and race

Source: https://nicjr.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/DC-GVPA-1.2024.pdf

A few key points on the data involving homicides.

96% of the suspects were male.

88% of the victims were male.

96% of the suspects were Black.

95% of the victims were Black,

Blacks make up 46% of DC's population but 96% of the homicide suspects.

Whites make up 38% of the population but only 1.3% of the suspects.

Hispanics comprise 11% of the population but only 1.7% of the suspects.

Asians are 11% of the population but just 0.9% of the suspects.

Homicides and shootings are overwhelmingly Black on Black violence.

The other interesting factoid in the report is the extent to which both suspects and victims in homicides in D.C. had been previously arrested.

The average for both was 9.7 arrests!

Source: https://nicjr.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/DC-GVPA-1.2024.pdf

This data suggests that a disproportionate amount of serious crimes are committed by a small number of criminals.

This is not something that is unique to Washington, DC.

In fact, a past study showed that of those admitted to state prisons in 2014, over 80% had been arrested more than 3 times before the crime that put them in prison.

Less than 5% of those admitted to prison had been arrested only the one time that led to the prison sentence.

The median number of arrests was 9!

Source: https://inquisitivebird.xyz/p/the-case-for-prisons

This data suggests if we got the very worse offenders off the streets of D.C. and other major cities in the United States, crime rates might drop by as much as 80%.

Yes, there was a logical rationale for the "three strikes laws" that were enacted in a number of states in the 1990's.

The National Institute for Criminal Justice Reform report also "included small group and individual interviews with more than 70 MPD officers selected for their particular knowledge and expertise of gun violence throughout DC." 

The police officers were asked what would be most helpful in breaking the cycle of crime and violence in DC.

The biggest factor seemed to center around "a feeling of impunity among many people on the streets that may be encouraging criminal behavior."

Numerous officers throughout the District also identified two issues that combine to create the feeling of impunity among people who engage in violence that have emboldened them to commit further acts of violence: a high bar for making arrests and a reduction in proactive policing.

The first issue is the feeling from officers that the criminal justice system is broken in theDistrict. They cited an extremely high bar for making arrests, claiming it has been elevated to a beyond a reasonable doubt standard usually reserved for convictions in court. Officers also complained of some cases not being charged or when they are, the defendant being allowed togo home to await court proceedings.

The second issue officers noted was a significant reduction in proactive policing due to what  they describe as a police department and DC Council that have made policy decisions that create strict rules where officers fear being disciplined or even fired for violating the new rules.For instance, the District enacted a unique consent search law that requires an officer to read a legal rights statement before conducting a consent search. There is also a relatively high threshold for when officers are allowed to chase a suspect in a vehicle, which officers claim has nearly ended vehicle chases.

In other words, the DC government has not shown the will to do what its own police officers suggest would make the biggest difference in combating crime and violence in the city.

President Trump has the will to do it.

There is also little doubt that his efforts will show results.

And this is undoubtedly the real reason that Democrats are complaining about Trump's actions.

They simply cannot afford success by Trump in DC like he had on the border.