This and That---December 26, 2025 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.

Gasoline Prices

The so-called media mavens who inhabit New York City, LA and Washington, D.C. scoff at President Trump claims about cheaper gasoline prices. Trump has even alluded to $2 per gallon gasoline in some places. They laugh and call him crazy.

Meanwhile, here are the real facts.

They apparently need to get out of the blue bubble that they live in.

Gasoline prices nationally are the lowest they have been since March, 2021 during the pandemic.

Source: https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts

Average prices in the state of Oklahoma are around $2.25 per gallon.

Source: https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts

Prices below $1.90 per gallon could be found in the suburbs of Dallas, TX on Christmas Eve according to GasBuddy.com.

Source: https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/texas/dallas

$2.00 gas can also be found in my home state of Ohio.

Source: https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/ohio

I saw prices as low as $2.11 the last few days in Cincinnati.

When it is also considered that median household incomes today are about 20% higher than they were four years ago, gasoline prices are taking a smaller share of household income than they were a decade ago.

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA646N

It does not help that home prices and health care costs are through the roof but a key factor that contributed to the increase in most other consumer prices over the last four years has been gasoline and energy costs. 

The fact that gas prices are heading down, even though the media does not want to believe it, is positive news looking to 2026.

Obamacare Subsidies

Congress adjourned for the year without taking any action on extending the additional Covid-era Obamacare subsidies that will expire on December 31.

These additional subsidies were enacted by the Democrats in 2021 as a temporary Covid relief measure.

Although the Democrats set the expiration date in the original legislation they are now blaming Trump and the Republicans for refusing to extend the subsidies beyond 2025.

When Obamacare first went into effect, the federal government (taxpayers) subsidized two-thirds of the healthcare plan costs for those who enrolled. This was a great deal as these people either had to pay 100% of the cost previously or were uninsured.

However, at the same time, the coverage requirements of Obamacare immediately increased the costs of these health plans for individuals.

By 2020, as coverage costs rose the subsidy level had increased to about a 75% subsidy.

The additional Covid-era subsidies that are set to expire on December 31 increased that subsidy to 93% in 2025 meaning that the enrollee only paid 7% of the cost and taxpayers picked up the other 93%.

Expiration of the extra subsidy would reduce the subsidy to an estimated 80% of the full cost.

This is the same subsidy amount provided by the federal government for Medicare Part B premiums and is in line with the 75%-80% cost that most employers subsidize employer provided healthcare.

This raises the question as why the taxpayers should be subsidizing healthcare costs for those on Obamacare plans at a higher level than is being done for those on Medicare and those covered by employer plans?

Source: Paragon Health Institute

Compare the increase in the subsidy levels over time in the chart above by the Pargaon Health Institute.

Billions more have been spent on Obamacare subsidies over the last decade to cover up the true costs to enrollees.

Total Obamacare subsidies were $18 billion in 2014. They were $138 billion in 2025 (an increase of 8x).

The expiration of the additional Covid-era subsidies would still leave almost $110 billion in subsidies for those on Obamacare (an increase of 6x since 2014).

The reality is that the subsidies are just papering over the utter failure of Obamacare and delaying the real reform of healthcare that is necessary.

Demography is Destiny

I often write that demography is destiny.

That was a big focus in my recent blog post on Africa.

Here is another factoid that adds more context to what is going on in the world right now with birth rates.

Only 3% of all births in the world are in North America and 5% in Europe.

85% are in Asia and Africa.

And a lot of those in Asia and Africa (not to mention South America) want to come to North America and Europe.

Warren Buffett likes to say that is you are born in the United States you won the birth lottery.

These numbers prove it.

These numbers also suggest why it makes sense to have a secure border and a sensible (and enforced) immigration policy in the United States.

Demography is Destiny---Part 2

Demography is also destiny in the United States.

An interesting graphic on changes in child population in red states vs. blue states since 2000.

This graph from The Wall Street Journal adds some additional context.

Credit: The Wall Street Journal

There is a 76% chance today that a liberal woman between the ages of 18-35 is childless.

The odds of that happening with a conservative woman of the same age is only about 35%.

What is really astounding is the extent to which that gap has widened over the last 10 years.

Is there a Trump effect in all of this wherein liberal women refuse to date or marry men who are Trump supporters?

Can anyone project where this ends?

Presidential Approval

This is another fact that you undoubtedly did not see in the mainstream media recently.

As of mid-December, Donald Trump had a higher approval rating than either Barack Obama or George W. Bush at the same point in their second terms. This is based on an average of all polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.com.

I hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas!