The negotiations between the United States and Iran concluded in Pakistan yesterday without any resolution for a permanent peace in the Middle East.
It is hard to see this as a surprise.
It is difficult to see Iran agreeing to hand over their nuclear material and agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Any leverage the Iranians have revolves around these two issues.
At the same time, it was impossible to believe that the United States would agree to any terms that did not include these two items.
What now?
Despite the lack of a permanent agreement the two week ceasefire between the two parties is still operative.
Will it hold?
Why did President Trump agree to the temporary ceasefire to begin with?
I believe there were several factors at play.
1. It provided Trump the opportunity to reset the engagement. It was intended to demonstrate that Trump could be reasonable and provide Iran the ability to do the same.
2. The fact that Iran would not budge on any of the major terms also provides the United States a higher moral ground if this goes to another stage.
3. At the same time, it gave U.S. forces the chance to take a breather and reload supplies and armaments for what comes next.
4. It also provided the U.S. the opportunity to see exactly who was left in the Iranian regime that could be considered to be in charge and able to make enforceable decisions.
5. It also gave time to other Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia to develop other routes around the Strait of Hormuz. One report I saw suggests that as much as 80% of the oil that normally ships through the Strait of Hormuz may now be available.
6. Finally, it gave the United States time to gather support from other Middle Eastern countries, European and Asian countries affected by Iran's shutdown of the Hormuz Strait to rally to take control of the Strait and the flow of oil.
Trump stated yesterday that the United States will begin a naval blockade of all ships in and out of the Strait of Hormuz,
This is being done to starve Iran of the revenues they desperately need to keep the regime alive.
It also will squeeze China which is a big buyer of Middle Eastern oil.
One report suggests that Saudi Arabia pushed Trump aggressively to finish the job with Iran.
It remains to be seen how this will end.
Iran is like a wounded and cornered animal.
The Islamists have little to live for if the regime totally collapses.
They have already shown they have little regard for human life, their Arab nations or anything else.
They have proven many times already over the last several months why one else was ever willing to confront the Iranian regime before Trump was willing to do so.
The only way that the United States will not prevail is if Trump and the United States people lack the political will to complete the mission,
It will not be easy seeing that most of our NATO allies have stood idly by and the Democrats and most of the mainstream media are rooting for Iran
Why would they root for a murderous regime that kills thousands of its own people, subjugates women and throws gays from rooftops?
Quite simply, they don't want Iran to lose if it means that Trump wins.
What now?
It likely is a test of wills.
The will of those with Trump Derangement Syndrome to put their hatred of Trump above the interests of world and national security.
The will of the Iranian regime to survive not matter the cost to their people and the world,
The political will of Trump and the American people.
Simply stated, there is a lot riding on the backbone and will of one man--Donald J. Trump--for this to turn out well for the United States and the world.
As I have observed before, you can't be great unless you are not afraid to be great.
That is what Donald Trump must decide on his own to answer the answer the question, What Now?
1. Triple down on the air assaults starting today.
ReplyDelete2. Start taking out their bridges, maybe 20 or 30 every day, until there are none left. If that's what's necessary.
3. Start hammering their cash cow, which of course is their oil production. Take out 4 or 5 of their smallest facilities first and then give them 24 hours, and then work our way up to the biggest ones. If that's what it takes.
4. Keep the straight of Hoemuz sealed up tighter than a frog's a** in a rainstorm until they capitulate.
5. Tell all of our friends in the Middle East, if you can call any of them our friends that is, to fund and supply weapons of all sorts to the good people of Iran.
Let's not forget that the North Vietnamese were ready to throw up the white flag until our ignominious withdrawal from South Vietnam.
They were minutes away from saying yes because we were bombing Hanoi and all of their harbors and every all the other good s*** up north. So let's not stop now. Lay it on 10 times harder, let the Saudis and the others arm the people, and let them set up somebody that they can all live with, which means we could probably all live with them.