The Collapse of Connection

There has been an enormous decline in the percentage of seniors in high school who say that they have consumed alcoholic drinks.

From over 90% in the 1980's to less than 50% today.

On its face, this should be viewed as a positive development.

However, this trend in likely not because teens are more health conscious.

They just are not hanging out with friends.

They are not socializing and making connections with others.

They are not dating as much and not having sex.

More than 50% of high school students had engaged in sex in 1991.

Less than one-third have today.

They are not even driving as much.

Only 25% of 16 year-olds have a driver's license.

 

That is about half of what it was in 1981.

Even more surprising to me, only 60% of 18 year olds were licensed drivers.

And only 80% of adults in their 20's had a driver's license in 2021.

I guess it is great that young adults are not drinking and driving and having sex.

However, what are the implications and why has so much changed in the last 30-40 years?

The reasons for the collapse in connection is undoubtedly multi-faceted.

However, it is hard to overlook the fact that the trends accelerated after the introduction of smartphones in 2008.

Almost half of teenagers say they are online "almost constantly."

That is double what it was ten years ago.

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/teens-and-internet-device-access-fact-sheet/

It goes without saying that if you have your head buried in your phone you are not going to be connecting very much with other human beings.

You also apparently are not very motivated to get your driver's license.

It must just be easier to use your phone and have an Uber take you where you want to go.

The use of smartphones and internet usage is also a reason why most marriages today result from meeting others online than through traditional connections such as via friends, work, school or the bar scene.

Notice how the personal connections (friends, family and neighbors) that used to dominate the "meet market" have dropped the most.

When you are not in the real world interacting with others there is a lot that is missing in the formative period that used to transform adolescents into adults.

Adjusting to life as an adult has never been easy. 

Dealing with social hierarchy, responsibility, accountability, rejection, shame, courage and all the rest.

Living life and having to deal with other human beings provided a lot of these lessons in the past during the adolescent years.

The collapse of connections is delaying this maturation process.

It is also delaying marriages.

Later marriages also reduces the overall fertility rate.

The biological clock of a woman is immutable.

Consider fertility rates in the United States over time.

Source: https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2055408053952860331

This graph tells us there will be a lot fewer children in primary and secondary schools in the coming years.

Colleges are going to come under increasing pressure due to fewer prospective students, due not only to lower birth rates beginning in 2008, but also increasing questions about the value proposition of college considering its high costs and uncertain job prospects.

The Financial Times recently did an article that suggests that fertility rates around the world have

 collapsed in the wake of the introduction of the smartphone.

Perhaps it is merely correlation rather than causation but there seems to be no denying that the collapse of connection is also having an effect on the collapse in birth rates.

From the article.

Nathan Hudson and Hernan Moscoso-Boedo of the University of Cincinnati published a paper last month looking at birth rates through the lens of the rollout of 4G mobile networks in the US and UK.

The number of births fell first and fastest in the areas that received high-speed mobile connectivity earliest. The authors argue that smartphones have transformed how young people spend time with one another, sharply reducing in-person socialising and leading to the collapse in their fertility.

FT research indicates the same trend has affected other countries.

For example, US, British and Australian birth rates for teens and young adults were broadly flat during the early 2000s but began to fall markedly from 2007.

The same slide began in France and Poland around 2009, and in Mexico, Morocco and Indonesia around 2012. What had been steady declines in fertility in Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal became precipitous drops between 2013 and 2015.

All of these inflection points coincided with the mass adoption of smartphones in local markets — as measured by Google searches for mobile apps.

In country after country the birth rate plunged after the introduction of smartphones, no matter what the previous trend was. The younger the age group, the more pronounced the downturn — a mirror image of smartphone usage patterns.

Melissa Kearney, professor of economics at the University of Notre Dame, says it is “quite plausible that the modern digital media environment has had profound effects on society that have led to a decline in romantic coupling”.

Indeed, Hudson and Moscoso-Boedo’s thesis that the key factor is less time spent socialising in person is supported by evidence from dozens of countries. In South Korea young adult in-person socialising has halved in 20 years.

“To meet a person you are going to marry requires filtering through a lot of people,” says demographer Lyman Stone. “If you socialise much less, it takes you much longer to find a match if you find one at all.”

He adds: “If you spend lots of time socialising with your peers in the real world, your standards [for a potential partner] are anchored in the real world. If you spend your time on Instagram, your standards are anchored to an artificial sense of what is normal.”

It is useful to consider the total implications of all of this and where the trends take us.

1. Collapse of Connection

2. Collapse of Coupling

3. Collapse of Children

4. Collapse of Civilization

If you doubt it, consider this eye opening factoid about where Thailand ends up if it continues with its current 0.8 fertility rate.

You don't need to get to 200 years to find out.

The civilization will be gone long before then.

An 0.8 fertility rate will result in a reduction in the population of a civilization of 60%-80% within two generations.

By that time most of the connections humans have may be limited to their personal robots.

Source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/robot-personhood-rights-responsibility-safety-europe-1.4044741