When you hear many people talk about their disapproval of President Trump today they will often cite either gasoline prices or food prices.
I thought I would go back in time and look at prices for these commodities today compared to what they were four years ago.
We often hear people claim that prices have never been higher.
These people have fallen victim to recency bias.
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| Source: Google AI |
We tend to overvalue recent events or data compared to older, more comprehensive historical data.
For example. let's look at oil prices that have gotten a lot of attention since the Iran War began.
Crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) has recently been trading at around $69/barrel after briefly breaking $100.
Four years ago crude oil was over $100/barrel for an extended period of time in 2022.
Notice that the price of oil is also lower right now that it was at almost anytime in the three years from 2022 to 2024.
It also goes without saying that we would not be in this position were it not for the shale oil revolution that President Trump and the Republicans supported but which was opposed by almost every Democrat politician over the last decade.
We would be in very bad shape if we had not followed Trump's advice to "Drill, Baby, Drill".
(You can read about what The Shale Revolution has meant to the United States in a blog post I wrote in May.)
That would be true even if there were no problems in the Strait of Hormuz today.
Do you also remember this statement by Joe Biden in 2019 when he was running for the Democrat nomination for President?
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| Source: https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-7837265/We-jail-Biden-wants-prosecute-fossil-fuel-executives-environment-damage.html |
Of course, there is typically a lag effect between commodity prices and when they reach the consumer.
Refining, transportation and distribution costs get added to the commodity cost of oil as the product moves to the retail market.
The regular price of gasoline has come down from the highs of a couple months ago but would appear to have more room to fall based on current commodity prices that will eventually work their way into the refining system.
However, the national retail price of gasoline is still 29% below what it was at its height in 2022.
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| Source: https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts |
Food prices are a mixed bag.
Commodity prices for dairy products are down from where they were four years ago.
Milk -19.5% compared to four years ago.
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| Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/milk |
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| Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cheese |
The same is even truer for poultry and eggs, especially compared to the price spike that occurred in late 2024 and early 2025 due to the bird flu panic when millions and millions of chickens were euthanized.
Commodity prices for eggs are down 90% from a year ago.
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| Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us |
However, commodity prices for beef are way up as anyone who likes ground beef and steaks can attest.
Live cattle prices are up over 80% compared to four years ago.
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| Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/live-cattle |
This has driven the national city average price for ground beef per pound from $4.89 four years ago to $6.75 in May, 2026 per BLS. data.
Keep in mind that is a 38% increase compared to a 80% increase in the underlying commodity price.
That tells me to expect even higher beef prices in the near future.
On the other hand, the lower commodity prices we are seeing now in other food items should result in lower grocery prices in the near future than we are seeing right now.
For example, despite the huge drop in commodity egg prices the retail price of eggs in grocery stores have not fallen at the same rate.
The national city average in May was $2.19 per dozen.
That is 25% lower than July, 2022 and 39% cheaper than a year ago.
Nevertheless, eggs at the grocery are not down 80-90% over these periods as are the underlying commodity prices.
Part of the reason is that labor and other overhead costs in the grocery system have risen substantially as a result of the high inflation during the 2022-2023 period.
Labor costs, in particular, are not going to reverse. Those additional costs are now baked into the system. Pay and benefits increases that were given the last few years are not going to be taken away.
You can also bet that grocers are not as willing to lower prices as quickly as they were to raise them as their costs first went up.
As shoppers got more accustomed to paying $3.00-$4.00/ dozen for eggs it is easier to price those eggs in the $2.00-$2.50 range rather than return to the $1.50 range they were before the spike in prices.
It is also important to remember in all of this that the cost of food as a percent of personal disposable income is about as low as it has ever been.
Food (both at home and away from home) takes a smaller percent of disposable income than it did in 2022-2024.
The only time it was lower in history was in the period right before and during Covid.
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| Source: https://www-tx.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/76967 |
The share of disposable personal income spent for gasoline is also near historic lows.
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| Source: https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/consumer-gas-affordability.pdf |
I understand that people remember when gas was $2.00 gallon, you could buy a dozen eggs for $1.50 and might find a clearance price on bread at Kroger for 99 cents.
However, the reality is that all of those prices were during Trump's first term.
We are not likely returning to those prices unless we find ourselves in a worldwide recession and no one should be rooting for that.
Covid, the money printing that ensued and the inflation that inevitably followed brought us to where we are today.
However, the fact is that most everyone in history, and anyone living anywhere else in the world today, would gladly take the food and gas prices (and incomes) that many Americans are complaining about.
It is easy (especially for those who dislike him to begin with) to disapprove of President Trump for current gas and food prices.
It is much more difficult to put all of this in historical perspective and context.
However, if you allow recency bias to control you, it is distorting your decision making ability and views about the reality around you..
It is just one more example of why I often say "context is everything when assessing anything".
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