Covering Up The Cover Up?

Cover ups are bad enough.

How bad is it when the cover ups are being covered up?

That is where we find ourselves today with the mainstream media in the wake of the disclosures by Twitter that it actively worked to cover up the Hunter Biden laptop story in the lead up to the 2020 election.

You may recall that the mainstream media and the major social media companies all refused to cover the Hunter Biden laptop story that was first published by The New York Post on October 14, 2020. The argument  was that the story could not be verified and was most likely a Russian disinformation operation.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbc-cnn-cbs-hunter-biden-laptop-russian-disinformation-media

Twitter and Facebook blocked users from sharing the New York Post story about Hunter's laptop.

Twitter also suspended The New York Post's Twitter account and locked it down because the newspaper would not delete the original tweet about the laptop.

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/jack-dorsey-ny-post-remains-locked-out-twitter-hunter-biden-2020-10

50 former intelligence experts warned that the laptop had all the earmarks of a Russian disinformation campaign which was then repeated and amplified by the media for the last two weeks of the campaign.

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/521823-50-former-intelligence-officials-warn-ny-post-story-sounds-like-russian/

In the last debate, Joe Biden used those "experts" to laugh off any possibility that that the laptop story was credible after Trump challenged him with defending some of the revelations therein (including evidence indicating that Joe Biden was a silent partner in at least one business deal with the Communist Chinese).

This is how Biden responded to the laptop claim in the debate.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/factsfirst/politics/factcheck_036fb62c-377f-4c68-8fa5-b98418e4bb9c

A bunch of garbage? Joe Biden clearly knew it was not a bunch of garbage. That was a flat out lie.

Trump also tried to bring up the Hunter Biden laptop in an interview with Lesley Stahl of CBS News  in the days leading up to the election.

She retorted that the laptop could not be verified. 

Trump appeared on CBS’ "60 minutes" where he addressed Hunter Biden's laptop, which he called "one of the biggest scandals" he’s ever seen. But, anchor Lesley Stahl was insistent that there was no way to conclude the laptop or its contents were real. 

"Excuse me, they found the laptop. Lesley. Listen," Trump said, as Stahl repeatedly interjected that the laptop could not be verified. 

"What can’t be verified?" Trump asked.

"The laptop!," Stahl exclaimed. 

Of course, we now know that the FBI had the actual laptop in its possession since December, 2019.

This fact was known as the computer repair shop owner had given the laptop to the FBI after Hunter Biden had failed to pick it up after being repaired in April, 2019.

CBS could have easily verified its authenticity with the FBI.

In fact, it did independently verify the Hunter Biden laptop contents were legitimate in late November, 2022  more than two years after it said it could not be verified.

Source: https://www.dailywire.com/news/cbs-finally-admits-hunters-laptop-is-real-more-than-two-years-after-the-fact

Of course, The New York Times had already admitted that in March of this year.

Source: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/almost-two-years-after-2020-election-the-new-york-times-discovers-hunter-biden-laptop-and-corruption-investigations-are-real/

 

Twitter, under the ownership of Elon Musk, has now come clean and released a number of internal files showing the lengths that Twitter employees went through to censor and hide the laptop story and the truth.

It was clearly done with the intent to protect Joe Biden.

Evidence is also accumulating that one of the reasons that Twitter did so was due to continual warnings from the FBI to social media companies to beware of attempts at Russian collusion, disinformation and attempts to influence the election.

Is it merely a coincidence that the FBI warned Twitter about a "hack and leak" operation about Hunter Biden before the New York Post story broke?

This is from a New York Post editorial this week.

Talk about spreading “disinfo”! As The Post’s Miranda Devine reports, the FBI specifically warned Twitter to expect a “hack-and-leak” operation by “state actors” involving Hunter Biden, likely in October 2020, a key Twitter official says in a sworn declaration — even though the agency knew very well that info floating around about him was 100% legitimate.

Could evidence of an FBI coverup be any stronger?

Words do not describe how corrupt all of this is.

Watergate was nothing compared to this.

This is a coverup on top of a coverup.

The FBI had the laptop in 2019.  It had to know its contents were legitimate by October, 2020.

The FBI suggests to social media and mainstream media companies to be wary of foreign actors peddling disinformation.

The New York Post breaks the Hunter Biden story and it is immediately discredited by everyone including 50 former top intelligence experts.

The laptop story is called a lie.

Joe Biden also knew it was a lie.

And the FBI clearly knew it was a lie at the time as they had been in possession of the laptop for over 9 months and had plenty of time to verify its contents.

What does the FBI do knowing the real truth?

NOTHING. 

IT SITS SILENTLY AND ALLOWS THE LIE TO BE PERPETUATED OVER AND OVER AGAIN.

It allows an election to be conducted without disclosing the truth.

An election in which a subsequent poll showed that one is six BIDEN voters stated they would have changed their vote if they had known about the Hunter Biden scandal and others.

Source: https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/24/poll-one-in-six-biden-voters-would-have-changed-their-vote-if-they-had-known-about-scandals-suppressed-by-media/

The FBI has remained silent over the intervening two years.

The FBI appears to have covered up everything.

Mind you this is part of THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE of the United States of America.

This is the chief law enforcement agency in the nation which proudly displays the equal scales of justice in its seal.

This is the agency which is supposed to be committed to fidelity, bravery and integrity.

What is the reaction of the mainstream media and liberal pundits to all of these revelations?

It is almost as if it did not happen.

If any of this is mentioned at all it is positioned as a "nothing burger" or "snoozefest'.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbc-liberal-analysts-complain-hunter-biden-twitter-story-snoozefest-m-meh

Let's recap.

The Hunter Biden story was originally covered up by mainstream news and social media.

The FBI appears to have facilitated the coverup.

At a minimum, it could have come forward two years ago and made clear that the laptop was not a Russian disinformation plant. It had the evidence. It did nothing.

The media and FBI stay silent about all of this for another two years.

The facts come out that the Hunter Biden laptop story was legitimate.

The media gives almost no coverage to the story thereby covering up the cover up.

If it is covered, it is termed a "nothing burger" which then allows them to bury the story and insure it is covered up.

The FBI continues to remain silent and has not made public anything to do with the Hunter Biden laptop (or potential criminal acts exposed therein) although it has been in its possession now for three years.

Is this not covering up the cover up?

The Babylon Bee satirically puts all of this in context.

Of course, the best satire always has a lot of truth in it.

"DNC, Media Collude To Suppress Story About DND, Media Colluding To Suppress Story".

I think that sums it up pretty well. 

Bad does not begin to describe where we are today on fairness, free speech and equal justice under the law in the United States of America.

To have to think about this on December 7, which marks the day that so many men and women embarked on a journey 81 years ago with so much sacrifice to protect these values against authoritarian rule, makes it even worse.

Confusing, Confounding and Contradictory

We all are familiar with the popular narratives that were repeated over and over regarding the Covid vaccines.

Two years ago as the Covid vaccines were just about ready to be rolled out we were told that the vaccines would prevent infection and transmission of the virus. We were promised that the end of the pandemic was at hand if enough people got vaccinated.

A year ago as cases were beginning to rise to unfathomable levels we were told that the vaccines were never intended to stop infection but getting the Covid vaccine would prevent serious disease and hospitalizations.

Do you remember last winter's surge?

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

We were told that our hospital systems would crash if people did not get the vaccine.

We don't hear as much about Covid these days.

CNN, MSNBC and the mainstream media do not display Covid counters continually on their screens.

You would think that life for the most part has returned pretty much to normal based on news reports and our everyday lives.

For example, look at these college students at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio packed in to watch the USA play in the World Cup.

However, if you actually look at the data not much has changed with Covid compared to last year insofar as hospitalizations are concerned.

For example, look at hospitalizations for Covid in New York last year at this time compared to where we are right now.

Covid hospitalizations in New York are actually 55% higher in those age 70+ (the most vaccinated age cohort) than they were are at this time last year.

The all ages average is also higher this year than it was at this time last year in New York.

This is in a state in which 88% of everyone 18-64 has been fully vaccinated and 95% of those age 65+ are.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-covid-cases.html

The same is true in Florida in which 93% of those over age 65+ have been fully vaccinated and 74% of those 18-64 are.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/florida-covid-cases.html

The national numbers also show that new hospital admissions for Covid for those age 70+ are higher now than they were at this time last year although the all age average is down slightly.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

How do you explain it based on everything that was "sold" to the American people on what the Covid vaccines would do?

The good news is that Covid deaths have not followed the upwards trajectory that hospitalizations have.

In fact, the 7-day average of deaths (250 per day) is near the lowest level it has been since the beginning of the pandemic.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

This could be due to the vaccines.

It also might be due to better treatment protocols, a less virulent variation of Covid circulating or improved natural herd immunity.

Whatever the cause it is good news.

What is also interesting is looking at the current Covid deaths (7-day average) in the least vaccinated state (Alabama) compared to Puerto Rico that has a higher overall vaccination rate than any state.

Puerto Rico has over 3 times the death per capita than Alabama has right now. It also has over 3 times the cases per capita and 3 times the test positivity. Hospital rates are about the same.

81% of the population is fully vaccinated in Puerto Rico compared to 52% in Alabama.

Puerto Rico is also first in booster shots and Alabama is last.

The numbers tell a different story than the narrative would suggest.

How is this possible with what we have been told?

As far as the hospital system collapsing because of Covid, look at the chart from HHS below.

Total inpatient hospital beds utilized over the last two years have been remarkably stable.

What is most interesting is that staffed inpatient beds have declined by 100,000 (13% reduction) over the last two years in the midst of the Covid pandemic.

Note that hospitalizations for influenza is making a comeback after practically disappearing over the last two years.

Credit: https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1599114096082767873/photo/1

A few data points to further prove that this has surely been the most confusing, confounding and contradictory pandemic in human history.

Comedian Ben Glieb sums it up pretty well in this monologue.

(Click here if the video above does not play in your browser)

(Hat tip reader Michael D.)

This and That---December 2, 2022 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.

Personal Savings

The personal savings rate is in free fall as a result of the expiration of Covid relief programs and inflation that has squeezed the household budgets of Americans.

The personal savings rate has never been lower.

Things were great two years ago as government checks filled bank accounts while no one had anywhere to spend the money due to lockdowns.

It is a different story today.

Personal savings of $4.85 billion was registered in 2020's second quarter. Last quarter the personal savings of Americans had dropped to only $685 million according to the Federal Reserve.

Personal savings has disappeared as real personal disposable income has gone negative like nothing we have seen.

How is the consumer still spending?

Credit cards to the rescue.

How long can this continue?

Home Sales

U.S. pending home sales are also in the midst of their biggest decline in over 20 years.

The declines have been faster and deeper than what was witnessed in the 2009-2011 financial crisis.

Credit: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-pending-home-sales-plunge-biggest-annual-drop-ever

Unemployment

The unemployment rate has not nudged up yet but that might be about to change.

Challenger (an executive recruiting specialist) maintains a database that tracks job layoff announcements. This index typically is ahead of the actual unemployment claims that follow the layoffs.

The Challenger index is forecasting bad news over the next few months.

Credit: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/continuing-jobless-claims-hit-10-month-highs-layoffs-exploded-november

 

In addition, the latest ADP jobs employment report shows that 100,000 manufacturing jobs were lost last month. Professional and business services lost another 77,000 jobs.

The good news is that there were a lot more bartenders, waitress and hotel hospitality jobs being filled.

All will be good for them until the credit cards max out.

Credit: https://twitter.com/DontWalkRUN/status/1597976685487738881

Overall net employment growth is slowing according to ADP.

Credit: https://twitter.com/CortesSteve/status/1598026014701268993

How long before it goes negative?

It's About the Environment?

In order to transition away from fossil fuels, and rely on solar, wind and electric vehicles, is going to require a tremendous amount of copper. This is a key resource in all of these so-called "green energy" initiatives.

For context, over the last 5,000 years, humans have mined 700 million tons of copper.

To meet the energy transition targets that have been established by the climate change lobby, it will require another 700 million tons of copper to be be mined over the next 22 years.

It also takes, on average, 16 years of lead time to open a copper mine in the United States considering regulatory and other issues.

Cobalt, graphite, lithium, nickel and vanadium are other metals that are required for green technologies.

Compare the requirements for these key minerals to known reserves.

It seems that something does not add up in all of this.

Credit: https://twitter.com/BrianGitt/status/1595063248092819456

I have no doubt that tremendous innovations and advancements will be made in the future.

More reserves will be found. Better extraction techniques will be discovered. Alternative metals will be utilized.

However, to have any government mandating the abolition of energy sources that work well today for things that are unproven is a recipe for disaster.

What is the greater potential disaster?

Climate change?

The response to perceived climate change?

Climate Change?

What is going on right now with temperatures around the world?

The United States.

These charts compare actual temperatures compared to averages (green/blue colder, orange, yellow warmer).

Europe.

India.

Australia.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/30/australia-weather-second-wettest-spring-ever-coldest-in-decades

Remember that all of the alarm about climate change was originally supposed to be because increased carbon emissions were going to raise temperatures, melt the ice caps, flood coastal areas and cause droughts that would curtail food supplies.

Now these same charts are used by many to argue that climate change is occurring.

Yes it is. As it has since the dawn of time with man or without.

Covid, China and a Tripledemic?

If you have not been paying attention lately a lot has changed with Covid.

Cases are soaring in China compared to what has been reported in the past.

Covid cases per million people in China are still a fraction of what is being seen in countries such as Australia, Germany, Japan and the United States.

However, the ability of China to maintain low case numbers has come at a tremendous loss of freedom to the Chinese people under the Zero Covid policies of the Chinese Communist Party.

The significant question to be answered over the next few weeks is whether China will be able to continue to pursue the lockdowns and mandates associated with its Zero Covid policies in the face of emerging protests by the masses.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/26/china/china-protests-xinjiang-fire-shanghai-intl-hnk

What is also interesting is that each of the biggest global adversaries of the United States (China, Russia and Iran) are embroiled in large protests by its citizens related to government policies.

These are authoritarian governments.

It takes real courage to take to the streets and protest what government leaders are doing. It literally could be the last thing that you do.

It shows the level of frustration and anger boiling beneath the surface with the people in these countries.

Could the United States find some way to take advantage of this situation and give these people some hope for freedom?

Color me less than optimistic with the current administration in charge.

In the meantime, in the United States, influenza and the respiratory virus RSV are much more prevalent after being almost undetectable for the better part of the last two years.

For example, hospitalizations for influenza for those age 65+ were almost non-existent for weeks 40-45 (red line in the chart below) in 2020 and 2021.

That is no longer the case. 

The traditional flu season is yet to come. However, flu cases are already exploding. Will this trend continue or is this season just early this year?

A similar pattern is seen in RSV hospitalizations.

There were very few hospitalizations in the 2020/2021 (blue dotted line) and 2021/2022 (thin green line) seasons but there has been an explosion in RSV thus far this season (bold green line)

 

Why?

Did viral interference with Covid outcompete these other viruses in the last two years and they have no come back with a vengeance?

Did Covid policies such as lockdowns, masking etc. result in immune suppression such that the immune systems of people are not as well primed to fight off the flu and RSV as before?

Did the Covid vaccines cause some type of immune suppression that is making vaccinated people more vulnerable to other diseases?

A Midwestern Doctor discusses the possibilities in a substack post that might be of interest.

While the flu and RSV are in a resurgent trend, Covid has thus far settled down in the United States compared to the last two years at this time.

If you look again at the chart above comparing cases in Australia, Japan and Germany you will also see that the United States case counts are much better than in these other counties.

It should be noted that all of these countries also have much higher vaccination rates than the United States.

That makes it difficult to argue that the lower case counts are due to vaccinations.

It seems much more likely that natural immunity has been more responsible for the decline.

New reported cases are now about 50% of what they were at this time last year and 25% of what they were two years ago.

Of course, cases surged in each of those years in December in the wake of Thanksgiving gatherings and colder weather causing more people to stay indoors.

Will we see a tripledemic of Covid, influenza and RSV in the coming months?

Dr. Fauci and Biden Covid Advisor Dr. Ashish Jha have hit the airwaves hard over the last week warning about a possible tripledemic this winter.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/27/white-house-fauci-jha-covid-vaccines

It seems that the only real advice they have is for everyone to get vaccinated with the new bivalent Covid booster and a flu shot. There is no vaccine for RSV.

To be fair, Dr. Fauci did tell everyone that they should take a Covid test before going to any Thanksgiving gatherings. How many of you did that?

Source: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/11/22/anthony-fauci-urges-americans-to-get-covid-tests-before-thanksgiving-everybody-should-be-vaccinated/

Of course, when Fauci says "everybody should be vaccinated" he is talking about the full five doses, including the new bivalent Covid booster, and this year's flu vaccine.

The American people don't seem to be buying what they are selling.

Only 11% of Americans have gotten the new Covid booster.

The number of flu doses administered is the lowest it has been in recent memory,

Only 42 million doses had been administered by the end of October according to the CDC. By comparison, 62 million doses of flu vaccine had been administered by that time in 2020.

What has caused this change?

Could it be that our public health authorities have lost a substantial amount of credibility over the last two years with ineffective, and what turned out to be inaccurate statements, about our Covid response and the efficacy of the vaccines?

Will we see a tripledemic?

I have no doubt that we will see all three surge at some point this winter.

However, I doubt we will see all three peak at the same time. My belief is that viral interference will prevent all three from being dominant simultaneously.

An increasing number of epidemiologists subscribe to that view.

That was very much a minority view when I first advanced that theory as to why the seasonal flu had seemingly disappeared with the emergence of Covid in 2020.

You may recall that in October, 2020 Dr. Fauci was warning that we would be facing a twindemic in the 2020/2021 season caused by Covid and the flu.

I questioned that view based on the data I was seeing around the world, most particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, that was just coming out of its winter flu season. Flu had practically disappeared there while Covid was present.

I wrote the following on October 19, 2020 regarding viral interference.

It will also be interesting to see if we see a twindemic in the United States that Dr. Fauci and other experts are predicting.

This data indicates to me that Covid may be in some way blocking the flu virus from replicating in the population. It is almost as if Covid is bigger and stronger so that the flu cannot get established in the community when Covid is present.

As always, we will find out together what happens in China with Covid and the United States with any tripledemic.

I am not a betting man but I would not wager much on whether Dr. Fauci and friends are any better at predicting a tripledemic than they were a twindemic.

Or anything else that he was so famously wrong about over the last three years.

I wish Dr. Fauci a very happy and healthy retirement.

He says he is merely transitioning to another chapter in his career.

Perhaps he is thinking he can lend a hand to the Chinese.

It seems he might have had some experience in doing that previously.

Source: https://nypost.com/2021/10/21/nih-admits-us-funded-gain-of-function-in-wuhan-despite-faucis-repeated-denials/

400 Years---A Divergent Path

The first Thanksgiving was held in 1621.

The Pilgrims had experienced an enormously challenging first year in the New World after landing at Plymouth Rock a year earlier.

In their first two months, half of the Pilgrims died during the harsh winter.

Their first year of farming (1621) was disappointing. Those that remained after that first year were just thankful to be alive at that first Thanksgiving.

The following year (1622) was not much better. There was stealing and hoarding among the ranks because the harvest was still meager.

Entering 1623, the leaders of the Pilgrims knew that the status quo would no longer suffice.

Major changes were necessary if they were to survive and succeed in their new home.

The Pilgrims had come to America with an agreement that they would function as what we would call today a "socialist commune". What they each produced individually was put into a common warehouse from which each family then took out their individual needs as determined by the Governor.

As you might expect, while everyone took what they needed, many did not do their fair share of work.

It was clear entering 1623 that changes had to made if the Pilgrims were going to survive and prosper.

As a result, in 1623, after two years of failure, the Pilgrims abandoned the status quo and went in another direction. 

The change in direction that the Pilgrims made is an interesting story if you were not aware of it before.

I first wrote about it in these pages back in 2013.

It is a more interesting story right now considering the parallels between 1622 and 2022 and the status quo election we have just experienced.

After two years of failures, the Pilgrims recognized that the status quo had to change 

In 2022, where we have just completed a status quo election after two years of failures that are hard to ignore, we apparently are on another path.

400 years later we know the Pilgrims made the right choice.

Will the same be said in the history books about the decisions that were made in 2022?

Pilgrims, Prosperity And Poverty

(originally published November 28, 2013)

I am thankful for many things.  My family. My friends. My job. I could go on and on. The list is very long.

I am most thankful I was born in the United States of America.  A country founded on the concept of individual rights and freedom.  A country that has embraced the idea of economic freedom, property rights, and capitalism.

Of course, I was born at a different time than where we seem to be today in our attitudes about some of these ideals. Will our young people be as thankful as I am about their country of birth?  I certainly hope so.  However, it amazes me how we fail to accept the reality of the failings and foibles of the human condition throughout history. As a result, the same mistakes and missteps plague us no matter how many times the history lesson is taught.

Look no further than Venezuela.  What was once the one of the most prosperous South American countries now languishes under a socialist regime despite rich natural resources.  Communist North Korea can't feed its own people while South Korea is giving a tablet computer to every school child. 

Taiwan flourished in freedom while Red China floundered for decades before it embraced capitalist-based economic reforms. The same was true for East and West Germany.  In all of these cases there was no difference in the people.  They were literally blood brothers and sisters.  It was the governmental system and philosophy that made the difference between prosperity and poverty for the nation's people.

Speaking of history, let's revisit the story of the Pilgrims and the origins of Thanksgiving Day. The story as I learned it in school was about a group of rugged individuals who set sail on The Mayflower in 1620 seeking religious freedom in America.  They encountered many hardships that first year but thanks to help from Indians and the Grace of God (I am sure this is no longer mentioned in the textbooks) they reaped a bountiful harvest in the following year and gave thanksgiving with a giant feast.

The First Thanksgiving At Plymouth, Jennie Augusta Brownscombe

The real story is much more enlightening.  It also shows that there is absolutely no question about which system works best to provide the most prosperity for the most people and limits poverty.  There should be no debate. There is absolutely no question.  It has been shown to be true over and over again. However, over and over, we see those who think there is a better, more humane, way to best provide for people in a society.

The real story of the Pilgrims was written by William Bradford who was the leader of the Plymouth Colony from 1621-1657.  He wrote "Of Plymouth Plantation" to chronicle the story of the Pilgrims and it is recognized today as the most complete authoritative source on the subject.

One of the best summaries I have read about the Pilgrim story was written by Dr. Judd W. Patton, "The Pilgrim Story: Vital Insights And Lessons For Today".

Let's start at the beginning.  When the Pilgrims decided to go to America they had a problem not uncommon to many of us. They did not have enough money. They lacked the funds to sail to America, equip and establish their colony.  As a result, they got financial help from some investors who financed New World adventures in return for a share of what the colonists made through farming, fishing, trade and other working endeavors.

The contract between the Adventurers (Investors) and the Pilgrims consisted of ten points. The most critical of which stated, “That all such persons as are of this colony are to have their meat, drink, apparel, and all provisions out of the common stock and goods of the said colony.” 

Today we would call this a socialist commune. In other words, the Pilgrims accepted the socialist principle, “from each according to his ability, to each according to his need.” Each person was to place his production into the common warehouse and receive back, through the Governor, only what he needed for himself or his family. The surplus after seven years was to be divided equally, along with the houses, lands, and chattels, “betwixt the Adventurers and Planters.” 

The first year after they set sail for America was particularly difficult.  The voyage itself took sixty-six days. They landed first on Cape Cod even though they had intended to reach the mouth of the Hudson River.  They spent another month sailing the coast of Cape Cod until they finally decided to settle in Plymouth at the site of an old Indian village on December 21, 1620.

Within two months, half of their numbers died. Of the 24 families who had set sail, only four were untouched by death that first year.  Four other families were wiped out completely.  Those that made it to that first Thanksgiving were thankful.  However, it wasn't necessarily because of a bountiful harvest. They were just happy to have survived.

Contrary to legend the harvests were extremely poor in 1621 and 1622. It was normal to be hungry. Governor Bradford referred to 1621 as the “the small harvest” year.  Yet he notes that in “the summer there was no want.” Thankful for what God had given them, Governor Bradford declared a three-day feast for the purpose of prayer and celebration. We all know it as the first New England Thanksgiving – apparently observed in late summer.

Things were marginally better in 1622. The harvest was a little better but many Pilgrims held back and did not work as hard as others.  There was stealing and hoarding. Bradford and the other Pilgrim leaders recognized that this would continue unless they changed the system.  What could they do to prevent another poor harvest?

This is how Governor Bradford tells it in "Of Plymouth Plantation".

“So they began to think how they might raise as much corn as they could, and obtain a better crop than they had done, that they might not still languish in misery. At length, after much debate of things, the Governor (with the advice of the chiefest amongst them) gave way that they should set corn every man for his own particular, and in that regard trust to themselves; in all other things to go on in the general way as before. And so assigned to every family a parcel of land…This had very good success, for it made all hands very industrious, so as much more corn was planted than otherwise…The women now went willingly into the field, and took the little ones with them to set corn; which before would allege weakness and inability; whom to have compelled would have been thought great tyranny and oppression.”

The socialist system was discarded and replaced with a system that was built on individual property rights and that put the trust in individual initiative to take care of the common good of the colony.

How did that work out?

In 1621, the Pilgrims planted only 26 acres. Sixty acres were planted in 1622.  But in 1623, spurred on by individual enterprise, 184 acres were planted!  Somehow those who alleged weakness and inability became healthy and strong. It’s amazing what incentive will do to improve bad attitudes!

However, the Pilgrims still had their challenges. The summer of 1623 was hot and dry. For almost two months there was no rain. Their crops were in jeopardy. Governor Bradford did not lose faith.

Governor Bradford then set a “solemn day of humiliation (fasting) to seek the Lord by humble and fervent prayer in this great distress.” Their prayers were answered. By evening it began to rain. It revived the corn and other fruits. Even the Indians were astonished. The soft showers continued along with beautiful fair weather. The result was a “fruitful and liberal harvest …for which mercy they also set apart a day of thanksgiving.”

By the fall of 1624, the colonists were able to export a full boat load of corn! And the Pilgrims settled with the Adventurers. They purchased the Adventurers stock in the colony and completed the transition to private property and free markets.

The rest is history.  The experience of the Pilgrims went a long way to forming the values and principles upon which our Founding Fathers created a new nation unlike anything the world had ever seen before. It came to be the most prosperous and powerful country ever known to mankind. For that I am forever thankful to the Pilgrims and the others who endured trials and tribulations to give me the life I have today.

As we celebrate Thanksgiving it is useful to remember the Pilgrims and what their experience can teach us.  I think Dr. Patton summarizes the lessons pretty well.

The Pilgrim experience dating from 1623 was and is yet a prototype for the United States of America.  They learned the hard way that: (1) Socialism does not work; it diminishes individual initiative and enterprise; (2) Socialism is not a Godly economic system; and (3) Famine and drought can be used by God to humble a people and set them on a proper course.  The Pilgrims responded.  The real question today is:  Can Americans learn these vital insights from the Pilgrims or must we too face famine and drought in the coming years?

Happy Thanksgiving!

The Law of Gravity

Sir Isaac Newton is credited with formulating the law of gravity after watching an apple fall from a tree.

He asked why the apple had fallen straight down rather than sideways, or even upwards?

The law of gravity encompasses apples on a tree to satellites shot into space.

What goes up eventually comes down.

We have witnessed the same general rule with great empires, powerful corporations and economic conditions.

It is difficult to continue to ascend or to maintain a high standing over time.

Gravity eventually rules.

Look no further than what we have witnessed with cryptocurrency company FTX in the last week or so.

Its FTT crypto token has lost over 98% of its "value" in a little over a year. It is essentially trading where it was when it was introduced.

It is estimated that investors have lost BILLIONS and BILLIONS of dollars.

It has been reported that the top 50 customers of FTX alone have lost over $3 billion. 

Gravity at work.

As we are about to start another year how much will the law of gravity apply to other issues that might be important to us?

A couple of charts to suggest that the forces of gravity may come into play.

The ratio of US housing costs to income.

If we do not see incomes rise substantially or lower mortgage rates, housing prices will be falling in 2023.

Mortgage demand has already fallen to the lowest level since 1997.

Credit card and other consumer debt have expanded massively over the last year.

This indicates that the consumer is under a great deal of pressure and consumer spending may have to tighten considerably in 2023.

Consumers loans (blue line) and personal saving (red line).

To make matters worse, the average interest rate on credit card debt has risen to the highest level since this measure was first tracked beginning in 1994.

In the meantime, retail inventories have grown substantially (up over 20%+) over the last year as supply chain issues improved. Retailers have a glut of inventory just as consumers are starting to come under pressure.

This may mean more holiday sales than last year as retailers try to turn that inventory to cash.

Source: https://www.axios.com/2022/11/18/holiday-shopping-sales-discounts-supply-chains

Further good news is that unemployment is near the lower end of historical averages.

However, this is partially due to changes in the workforce which is seeing thousands of older baby boomers retire and a lack of younger workers filling the labor force gap.

Consider the growth in the labor force over the decades.

The civilian labor force in the 2020's is growing on average at only .3% per year.

This is a mere fraction of the 2.6% it was growing at in the 1970's.

The large increase in the 1970's was caused by baby boomers entering the workforce.

The small increase in the labor supply in the 2020's is due to those same baby boomers retiring.

Declining birth rates over the last 50 years are the reason.

There is another country that is going to see huge impacts on its workforce in the future due to declining birth rates.

China has quickly become a demographic disaster.

Births have dropped by over 40% in the last five years. 

This is AFTER China abandoned its one-child policy and already in deep demographic trouble due to an imbalance between young men and women.

Source: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1590088023064154113/photo/1

You have to wonder how long it will be before the Communists in China are in the bedrooms of its citizens forcing them to procreate?

Where else do I see a threat of the law of gravity in the United States in 2023?

I suggest keeping a close eye on layoffs at the major social media/internet companies.

They went on a hiring binge over the last decade and it intensified when the Covid pandemic and lockdowns greatly benefitted their business models.

Meta (formerly Facebook) would have to layoff over half of its current workforce to get back to 2018 employment levels. That is 36,000 employees.

Credit: https://twitter.com/eladgil/status/1589271330255699972

Alphabet (formerly Google) would have to reduce employment by almost 58,000 employees to get back to 2018 levels.

Credit: https://twitter.com/eladgil/status/1589271330255699972

 

Layoffs have already started at Amazon.

Its employment at the end of 2021 had doubled in the two years of Covid from 800,000 to 1,600,000 employees.

Source: https://www.statista.com/chart/7581/amazons-global-workforce/

Of course, Elon Musk has already started to lay people off at Twitter.

50% of its employees were laid off in the first couple of weeks after Elon acquired the company.

Twitter had about 7.500 employees before the layoffs began.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-exec-says-50-employees-lost-jobs-following-acquisition-2022-11-04/

I don't know where the law of gravity will have the largest impact in 2023.

However, you can expect that it will.

It may be wise to keep a parachute close by should you need it.