Selfish or Selfless?

There is little doubt that it takes someone with a fair sized ego to get into politics.

For someone to believe that they are the best person to lead 340 million Americans and be considered the most powerful person on the planet takes an ego on steroids.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are no exceptions.

They both clearly think very highly of themselves.

Joe Biden became a United States Senator just barely a month after he met the Constitutional minimum age limit of 30 in 1972.

Joe Biden by all measures was a successful politician. Six terms as a Senator. Two terms as Vice President and now sitting in The White House for over three years.

However, if measured by real life standards, Joe Biden was nothing more than a mediocre talent his entire life.

He has tried to burnish his reputation over the years by telling lies about his past.

All of that reinforces what a mediocre talent he is.

Here are just a few of the untruths that Biden has repeated over the years.

Biden has claimed he was a teenage civil rights activist. There is no evidence he did anything to support civil rights when he was younger.

Biden has claimed that he was the first in his family to attend college. He was not. Both his grandfather and father attended college.

Biden has claimed he received an appointment to attend the U.S. Naval Academy to play football.  There is no evidence to support that claim and the dates Biden cites do not match

Biden has claimed he had three undergraduate degrees. He does not.

Biden claims he was named the "outstanding student in the political science department at the University of Delaware".  He was not.

Biden has claimed he went to law school on a full academic scholarship. He received no academic scholarships and had a half scholarship based on financial need.

Biden has claimed he graduated in the top half of his law school class. Biden actually was ranked 76th of 85 students at Syracuse University.

Biden has claimed he was arrested attempting to visit Nelson Mandela in prison in South Africa. It never happened. 

The only two skills that Biden had that were beyond mediocre were the gift of gab and the ability to be a world class backslapper. He shares both of those traits with many politicians.

However, both of those skills have diminished considerably over the years. They do not even rise to the level of mediocrity today in a man who had limited skills beyond that to begin with.

The fact that he is a man with limited skills and abilities is apparent to almost every clear thinking person today. 

Joe Biden is now being pressed to drop out of the Presidential race by many in the media and an increasing number of members of his own Democrat party.

This sudden reversal has nothing to do with concern about Biden's health or the country. 

This is about one thing ---concerns about Biden's polling numbers.

After all, a month ago most of the same people were saying that Biden was "sharp as a tack".

If you doubt that here is a six minute video clip repeating that mantra over and over and over again.

Link: https://twitter.com/BasedMikeLee/status/1807658619481337958

Right now, Biden is digging his heels in.

Biden sent a defiant letter to Congressional Democrats on Monday stating that he had no intention to drop out.

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-sends-letter-democrats-time-questions-end/story?id=111742809

Minutes after his letter became public, a furious Biden launched a full-throated defense of his decision to stay in this race, calling into MSNBC's "Morning Joe."

"The bottom line is, we're not going anywhere. I am not going anywhere!" Biden boomed through the phone.

"I wouldn't be running if I didn't absolutely believe that I am the best candidate to beat Donald Trump in 2024. We had a Democratic nominating process where the voters spoke clearly," he said, well-aware that his political future is at a make or break moment.

After several days on the campaign trail, the president is adamant that voters still support him. And to those party insiders doubting him, the president issued a blunt challenge.

"Watch. Watch. I'm getting so frustrated by the elites - I'm not talking about you guys," he said, referring to hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski, "but the elites in the party. 'Oh, they know so much more.' If any of these guys don't think I should run, run against me. Go ahead - announce for president. Challenge me at the convention," he said.

What I find particularly amusing in that statement is that Biden is now taking on the so-called "party elites".

Of course, the same "party elites" rallied around Biden in early 2020 after the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries indicated that Bernie Sanders was poised to win the Democrat nomination if they did not intercede.

The call went out to the party faithful to rally around Biden to keep Bernie from taking the nomination.

There is no way Biden would have won the nomination without those "party elites".

The same was true earlier this year when the "party elites" rallied around Joe and conspired to keep any legitimate Democrat that might oppose Biden out of the primary contests.

This concerted effort was the main reason that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. had to forego his plans to run in the Democrat primaries and instead mount an independent campaign for President.

It was all due to the elites protecting Biden.

Now that Biden's obvious infirmities are in full views to everyone and he is trailing in the polls, the elites have decided that Joe is more liability than asset.

What is also amusing is the narrative that we keep hearing that Donald Trump is a pathological liar and he is only out for himself, putting his personal interests above the national interests.

Joe Biden repeated this line in his interview with George Stephanopoulos last week when asked if he was really up to the challenge of defeating Trump.

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: They're just wrong. Look, Trump is a pathological liar. Trump is-- he is-- you ever seen anything Trump did that benefited sa-- somebody else and not him? You can't answer, I know.

Trump is a pathological liar?

What I see from Trump are more exaggerations than lies or untruths. 

"It is the greatest ever" "No one has ever seen anything like it" "Nobody could believe it." "It was a beautiful thing".

When I took Commercial Law in law school I learned the term "puffery".

That is what Trump does.

What about Joe?

Saying you were arrested for trying to visit Mandela in jail in South Africa or were the the only student in his law school class to have a full academic scholarship is not puffery.

Is it true that Trump never does anything that benefits someone else and not him?.

I have written previously that that there is no President in my lifetime who has taken office and came out poorer other than Donald J. Trump.

How exactly did Trump benefit by being President?

It is a talking point that is often used by Democrats. However, when pressed, these same people cannot provide any concrete examples of how Trump benefited handsomely by being President.

Trump was a billionaire before he became President. He was a worldwide TV star. He had his own 777 jet. He owned office buildings, hotels, golf courses and casinos around the world. He had once owned a professional football team and even an airline.

His net worth and his company brand suffered because he ran for President and incurred the wrath of so many liberals and leftists who did not like him.

He became the target in numerous legal actions that clearly would never have occurred but for entering politics. In fact, they almost certainly would have not have occurred if he had not announced he was running again in 2024.

If you need any other perspective on that consider the news this week that Boeing will pay a fine to avoid a criminal trial involving its faulty work on its 737 Max airliner.

The fine is less than Trump has to pay for supposedly "overvaluing" properties on his financial statements for loans that were ultimately paid in full and for which the banks used their own appraisers to value the properties supporting the loans.

Further, I would argue that in the decisions he had to make on Covid, following the direction and advice of Dr. Fauci and others to shut down the country, Donald Trump made the single largest decision inimical to his own personal interests as any President since George Washington left Mount Vernon to be the nation's first President.

Almost every cent Trump had to his name was in investments in commercial real estate, hotels and casinos   that he knew would be financially devastated by lockdowns.

However, Trump made the Covid lockdown decision in what he was told was the national interest and against his personal interests despite the fact that his gut clearly told him that this was an unsound policy decision. Trump said at the time he thought Fauci and Deborah Birx were out of their minds when they recommended he shut the country down.

I wrote in April about the enormous wealth that Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell have amassed over their years in Washington.

Does the road to riches run through Washington, D.C.?

It apparently does.

Unless you are Donald J. Trump.

Remember how much we heard that Donald Trump was using The White House to enrich himself?

How did that work out exactly?

When Trump first announced he was running for President in 2015 Forbes magazine estimated his net worth to be $4.5 billion. 

Just before the 2020 election Forbes estimated that Trump's net worth had dropped to $2.5 billion.

There has been no President in my lifetime who saw their wealth suffer after serving in office---except Donald Trump.

Barack Obama and Bill Clinton got enormously wealthy after serving as President. Joe Biden cashed in big time after being Vice President.

As of the fall of 2023 Forbes estimated Trump's net worth at $2,6 billion but he was no longer on the Forbes 400 list of the richest Americans. In 2015 he was #121. 

In ten years since first getting involved in politics Trump has seen his net worth almost cut in half.

Over those same ten years Nancy Pelosi has increased her net worth 8 times and Mitch McConnell has doubled his.

The final scorecard on wealth over the last 10 years or so.

Pelosi              up  700%

McConnell     up  100%

Trump            down 50%

Who has enriched themselves in public office and who has not?

You may or may not like Donald Trump, but the fact is that it is likely that no man who has been President has ever sacrificed so much, for so so little personal benefit, than Donald Trump.

Selfish or selfless?

Which is which?

With everything we have seen with Joe Biden and projecting all of this out over another four years how can it be argued that Joe Biden is selfless and Donald Trump is selfish?

It simply does not compute.

In fact, my guess is that Joe Biden is digging in his heels solely due to self interest.

It has nothing to do with the national interest.

Or even anything having to do with the best interests of his political party.

It is all about Joe and nothing else.

There could be any number of self centered motivations for taking the hard line stance that Biden is taking.

1. Biden knows that if he drops out of the race due to questions about his fitness to campaign for another term it is not a large leap to question whether he is even fit to finish his current term.

2. Biden's inner circle of wife Jill and son Hunter do not want to give up the privileges, perks and power that come with the office. They are not in anyway motivated to tell Joe what he needs to know and hear.

3. The same can be said for Joe's close advisers. They all go from the center of power to nobodies the second Biden exits the race or the Presidency. In fact, those close advisers look to be actually directing most of the policies and positions coming out of The White House right now. Who would give that up voluntarily?

4. Over 50 years in politics, Joe Biden has been accustomed to enjoying financial benefits from the power he wields. The entire Biden family "business" was apparently centered around this. Biden could be taking his defiant position for leverage. He is not going to go unless he is paid handsomely to step away. He knows there are plenty of Democrat "elites" with the money to buy him out. Why would Biden leave without putting some big money in his pockets on the way out? 

All of this puts the Democrats who want Biden to drop out between a rock and a hard place.

Axios published a column on Sunday that I thought did a nice job of putting all of this in perspective.

An unbendable Biden leaves the Democrats with few options.

Biden has the office.

He has a lot of power.

He also controls all of the delegates to the Democrat convention who are the only ones who can really force him out.

Source: https://www.axios.com/2024/07/07/biden-democrats-drop-election-campaign

This is the conclusion of that piece.

The bottom line: Biden holds the power. If he doesn't blink, he'd be daring Democrats to wage a public fight at the convention to undo the will of voters 11 weeks before Election Day. It would tear apart the party, the convention, Biden's legacy. The president believes that in the end, his critics will cave.

 

My take is that if Biden can survive this week he will take the high ground in the fight within his party.

There will be little focus on Biden the following week with the Republican Convention taking place in Milwaukee.

If the Democrats burn two weeks without getting Biden to drop out they might have no choice but stay with Joe.

The calendar does not leave much room to make a change after that.

Last month the DNC stated that they intended to nominate Biden by a virtual roll call vote before the end of July in order to insure he is on every state's ballot due to the Democrat convention being held so late this year (less than 90 days before the November 5 general election date).

In the meantime, every time Joe Biden appears or speaks at an event it is akin to a high wire act performing with no net.

Count me as someone who is happy I am  not one of Biden's advisers or a Democrat officeholder holding my breath every time he takes the stage or picks up a microphone.

It promises to make for a lot of entertainment over the next several months.

Biden vs. Trump

Selfish or Selfless?

You decide.

The Fourth Turning Is Here---Part One

I am going to do something I have never done previously with BeeLine.

I am going to do a series of BeeLine posts over the next several weeks that will focus exclusively on The Fourth Turning theory made popular in the 1997 book by Neil Howe and William Strauss.

I have written about The Fourth Turning in these pages a number of times over the years. 

The Fourth Turning represents the "winter" or "crisis" period in human history. There are also Spring, Summer and Fall turnings.

Each turning lasts about 20-25 years.

The entire cycle takes about 80-100 years or a long life of a human being.

If you have not guessed it already...we are in The Fourth Turning.

For most of the last 15 years we have been careening between chaos, craziness and crisis.

The temperature is rising with each passing day.

We are heading to a rendezvous with history whether we want to or not.

Part One that follows below will provide an overview of The Fourth Turning theory.

In Part Two I will write about being in the middle of The Fourth Turning and the lead up to the period of maximum crisis that is predicted to be still ahead of us.

In Part Three I will focus on where we go after The Fourth Turning.

Let's get started.

The Fourth Turning Is Here---Part One

The Fourth Turning refers to the cycles of history. There is a pattern to history. There are four turns much as there are four seasons.  A new era -or turn- occurs about every two decades or so.  As the authors describe it...

At the start of each turning, people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future.  Turnings come in cycles of four.  Each cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly 80 to 100 years. 

The four turnings are much like the seasons. 

There is a Spring which is a High where institutions are strengthening and individualism is weakening and a new civic order is implanting.  This was the period beginning right after WW II to the late 1960's

There is a Summer which is the Awakening.  This is an era of spiritual upheaval when the new civic order comes under attack from a new values regime.  This period began in the late 1960's with the flower children and Vietnam War protests and lasted until the late 1980's.

There is a Fall which is the Unraveling.  This is a period of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions. The old civic order decays and the new values regime firmly implants.  This began in the late 1980's and the authors predicted that it would run for about 20 years.

The Fourth Turning is the Crisis.  It is a decisive era of secular upheaval according to Strauss and Howe. In 1997, they predicted that "sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning."

In hindsight, it is generally acknowledged that The Fourth Turning we are in now began in 2008 with the financial meltdown that occurred at that time.

The Fourth Turning before that began in 1929 with the stock market crash. It ran until 1946 encompassing both the Great Depression and WWII. 

Previous Fourth Turnings centered around the Civil War and the Declaration of Independence and Revolutionary War.

If you do the math you will notice that about 80 years separated all of these Fourth Turning periods.

The point of maximum crisis is usually about 3/4 of the way through the FourthTurning. 

One of the important points that Howe and Strauss make in The Fourth Turning is that history does not necessarily repeat, but it rhymes. Why is that? Because with each succeeding generation the learnings of the past are forgotten or never learned. As a result, there is a tendency to ignore the past lessons of history as previous generations were not there and did not "live it". The same mistakes are made again and again over time.

For example, children who grew up in the Depression did not later become adults who thought the answer to every need was to borrow the money to get what they wanted today. They saved first and then got what they needed tomorrow. 

On the other hand, Baby Boomers, who grew up in an age of prosperity, and accustomed to the wealth produced by their parents' generation, have no perspective on what that time was like. As a result, they have not provided the necessary financial sobriety that society desperately needs today. We see the results of this lack of perspective every day.

What this all means is that history seems to repeat or rhyme because people react in similar ways within each cycle to the events of the world. For example, why did the American Revolution occur in 1776 and not 1756? The British had been ruling the colonies for years. Why did the Civil War erupt in 1861? Slavery had been controversial and a lighting rod issue between the states since the U.S Constitution was written.  Why did those events occur when they did?

When I read this book in 1998 it seemed an audacious prediction.  America was riding high.  The stock market was booming.  The federal budget was in surplus.  The defense budget was being trimmed every year as there seemed to be no real threats to peace.  All seemed right in America.  It was hard to see what  they were talking about.  Yet the book gave me an uneasy feeling and increased my sensitivity to observing the changes that were going on around me.

One of my blog posts in 2011 when I first began writing BeeLine was about the fact that we had entered The Fourth Turning. 

I wrote the following 13 years ago.

I hope you now understand why I believe that The Fourth Turning is one of the most consequential books of our time. To read these pages today that were written a decade and a half ago is chilling. There is no sugar coating it. We are in for a period where the very survival of the society will feel as if it is at stake. It will be high stakes and high risk. Much like the days of the American Revolution, the Civil War or the Depression Years and World War II. These were the other Fourth Turnings in American history. If you do the math you see that these events were all separated by about 80 years. We have entered a similar era according to Strauss and Howe.

What does it all mean? We need to change our approach. We need leaders that will lead. We need to be decisive in confronting our problems. We need to put the public interest ahead of special interests. There will need to be political upheaval and public sacrifice. There will need to be more personal responsibility and personal accountability. We need to de-fund time-encrusted government bureaucracies. We need to promote traditional virtues.

We need to understand there is a role for government to help us navigate the rough waters ahead of us.  There are many things that only government can do.  To get through this period government and our leaders will have to be the force that can galvanize and unite us to meet the challenge.  We cannot survive the crisis if we are all going our separate ways.  To meet the big challenges of the previous Fourth Turnings like the Revolution, the Civil War and World War II it took a strong government to lead and to galvanize the people to meet the crisis and create a new sustainable civic order. 

We are on a path for a rendezvous with history according to Strauss and Howe.  We have entered The Fourth Turning just as they predicted.  We now need to prove that we are as worthy as our forefathers in meeting the challenge in that rendezvous.  We each will have a role to play.  Are you worthy?

Barack Obama was elected right after the financial meltdown occurred in 2008 signaling the beginning of The Fourth Turning. He ran on a platform that promised he would be the leader that brought us together and would unite us and galvanize us to meet our challenges. Instead, he was largely responsible for further dividing us and fanning the flames of divisions between the races, between rich and poor and spending more time apologizing for America than defending it.

Donald Trump followed Obama and was elected with messages that were almost exactly on point with the major themes that Howe and Strauss wrote about in 1997 that a Fourth Turning leader would likely need to lead the country.. 

The quotes on the left are taken directly from the book of what important themes might be expected from a Fourth Turning leader. My comments on the right are from a blog post in May, 2016 at the time that Trump was just wrapping up the GOP nomination that year entitled "Has The Fourth Turning Brought Us Trump?".

Eight years later that blog post remains one of the five most popular posts I have written over the years based on the number of views.

"Decisive action".  There is very little gray in Trump's outlook.

"Assert public authority."  Think about Trump's views on eminent domain.

"Aggravate rather than alleviate societal pressures." Trump's views and statements on immigration.

"Reverse the decline of the middle class."  His major voting target is forgotten working class voters.

"De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies."  His call to consider the de-funding of NATO.

"Promote traditional values."  "Make America Great Again." 

"More isolationist."  Very consistent with his views on the Middle East.

"Less globally dependent".  His views on NAFTA, China, Japan on trade.

"Defense and Infrastructure."  Two of Trump's favorite topics in every speech. 

Trump did win that election but the establishment and media conspiracy on Russian collusion and all the rest hampered almost all of his efforts to be the transformational leader that he was positioned to be and that the times required.

Trump is now on the ballot again. The voters will also be given a second (third?) chance at the ballot box along with the opportunity to send a real message to the political and media establishment.

I have never forgotten what Howe and Strauss wrote in their book 27 years ago about the leadership required in The Fourth Turning.

"In recent years, many Americans have despaired that their nation no longer produces leaders who can galvanize and inspire. Yet it is the turning, not the nation, that elevates great people to the apex of power. Lincoln and FDR are both cases in point. Both had to wait for the Crisis to hit. An Unraveling (the Third Turning) is an era when most people of intelligence, vision and integrity do not seek (much less get elected to) high public offices.

 After the Fourth Turning arrives, however, a Lincoln-like leader will be more likely to seek office, and a Lincoln-like leader could be exactly what America needs, wants and gets."

Can Trump be that leader if given another chance?

I don't know. 

I am not saying Trump is another Lincoln or even FDR.

However, I do know that the above description does not in any way describe Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg or Gretchen Whitmer nor does it describe what we saw from Barack Obama in eight years.

Like it or not, Donald Trump may be our only chance to survive The Fourth Turning. 

It is late in The Fourth Turning, We are already 16 years in. 

As I stated above, the maximum point of crisis and risk typically arises about 3/4 of the way through The Fourth Turning. 

If Howe and Strauss are right we are the cusp of seeing it unfold. The chances are high that we will reach that point of maximum crisis in the next four years. In each of the previous Fourth Turnings a point was reached in which there was a real question of whether the society we lived in could survive. 

The British could have put down the Revolution and America could have remained a British colony. 

Abraham Lincoln could have let the Confederate states secede and the United States would have been permanently severed.

The United States could have remained an isolationist nation and allowed Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan to run roughshod over their neighbors and the rest of the world.

None of this happened because in each case our leaders and the American people rose to meet the challenge by sacrificing and working together for our future.

We are very close to that point where our society will either survive or become a footnote in history.

Yes, the stakes are that high if Howe and Strauss are anywhere close to predicting what is to come based on the cycles of history.

Reaching a critical crisis point in this Fourth Turning, similar to what we saw with the Revolutionary War, Civil War or World War II, is not inevitable.

After all, history is not made by events but by the reaction of leaders and the populace to the events.

We may be able to steer our way around the events before us.

However, that will require a very steady hand at the wheel.

There are many uncertainties ahead of us but what is certain is that we do not have a steady hand at the wheel right now.

That conclusion has become indisputable over the last ten days.

May God bless the United States of America. 

Polling Potpourri---July 5, 2024 Edition

A week has passed since the Biden-Trump debate.

It is unclear what the Biden campaign's strategy was thinking in challenging Donald Trump to the early debate. They cut the deal with CNN bypassing the Debate Commission, picked the moderators and established the rules (length of debate, muted mics etc).

What is clear is that the debate was an unmitigated disaster for Biden.

That is being reflected in the latest polls.

The two latest national polls released by The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal both show Trump up 6 points on Biden in a head to head match up.

Theses are the numbers in The New York Times poll.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/poll-debate-biden-trump.html

This graphic shows how The Wall Street Journal poll matching Trump and Biden has changed over time.

It is important to remember that in 2020 Joe Biden won the national popular vote by 5 points and still barely won the electoral college vote.

A 10 point swing to Trump is massive when viewed from that perspective.

In that the electoral college vote is all that matters, it is important to look at individual state polls for a better understanding of where the race stands.

State polls taken after the debate offer no better news for Biden.

A New Hampshire poll taken after the debate shows Trump leading Biden by 2 points in that state.

Biden won New Hampshire by 7 points in 2020.

A second poll in New Jersey within a week shows Trump up by 2 points over Biden in that traditional blue state.

Nevada is supposed to be a swing state but a poll conducted in that state after the debate has Trump +10 head to head versus Biden.

It is interesting to look at the internals in that poll and compare them to 2020 whien Biden won by 2 points in Nevada.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/poll-debate-biden-trump.html

Trump is running 39 points ahead of where he was in 2020 with Hispanics!

It does not appear that the open border policy has been a winner for Biden.

Trump has also gained 23 points with Independents and 14 points with Democrats while retaining all of the Republican voters who were with him in 2020 in Nevada.

An internal Democrat poll was leaked after the debate (by someone in the Democrat party that wants Biden to drop out?) that shows Trump with pretty big leads in all of the swing states after the debate. 

More concerning for Democrats is that the polling shows Trump with small leads in New Hampshire, Virginia and New Mexico which were thought to be safe blue states.

The debate by itself seems to have cost Biden about 2 points across the board.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/poll-debate-biden-trump.html

This is what a +6 point popular vote margin for Trump would likely mean insofar as the electoral college vote is concerned.

Note this leaves New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico and Maine as toss ups.

For context, Barack Obama had 332 electoral votes in 2012 and 365 in 2008.

The question remains whether Joe Biden is going to drop out of the race in light of these weak polling numbers.

Of course, underlying all of this seems to be a very weak, old man with diminished capabilities.

How old? Consider this fun fact that I came across on X.

80% of voters in The Wall Street Journal poll stated they believe that Biden is too old to run for a second term.

At this point, Biden is adamant that he is staying in the race.

However, he appears to have lost his defenders in the media many of which are now questioning his fitness for office.

Let it not be forgotten that a couple of weeks ago the same people were calling video clips of Biden mumbling, stumbling and wandering around as "cheap fakes" and reporting that Biden was "sharp as a tack."

Credit: https://twitter.com/megbasham/status/1806689942287880555/photo/1

Various Democrat political pundits are also off of the Biden train.

I particularly liked the comment of James Carville, who was Bill Clinton's political strategist, on Biden.

Source: https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1807097410256081262

That is consistent with what I have been saying for well over a year

I just do not see how Biden will be on the ballot in November.

The latest poll results suggest that to ignore the obvious is a very risky proposition for the Democrats.

Despite the obvious, there have only been a few Democrat officeholders who have thus far been brave enough to ask Biden to drop out.

Keep an eye on whether that changes in coming days. Losing the support of prominent Democrats would sound the death knell on Biden's campaign.

I also believe that a threat of the invocation of the 25th Amendment to remove Biden from office might play into this.

If Biden will not voluntarily drop out of the race I can see key Democrats telling Biden that they will declare him unfit and unable to discharge the duties and responsibilities of the Presidency and elevate Kamala Harris.

This would be a nuclear option that would undoubtedly cause Biden to announce he was dropping out of the race in order to save face and the remaining six months of his term.

You can be sure that there are plenty of discussions of various options and alternatives going on behind the scenes and out of public view right now by Democrats on what to do about "the Biden problem".

Democrat CNN political analyst Van Jones confirms the truth on air.

Link: https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1808669930738569521

For a number of reasons, Kamala Harris appears to be the only viable option the Democrats have to replace Biden on the ticket.

You can also be sure that it would be the preferred strategy of the Democrats to be able to remove Biden from office now and let her run as an incumbent.

I have seen mixed polling on whether Kamala improves Democrat chances in November.

A CNN poll performed after the debate shows Trump with a 6 point lead over Biden.

That poll also suggests that Kamala Harris is the best option among other Democrats that might replace Biden. She trails Trump by only 2 points compared to the 6 point deficit the Biden has.

A contrary view on Kamala Harris is reflected in a Daily Mail survey that shows Trump +5 against Biden but seeing that margin expand to +11 points versus Harris.

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13593757/president-kamala-harris-biden-replace-poll-trump.html?ico=related-replace

The Daily Mail poll also surveyed voters on a Trump-Michelle Obama race. Trump has the same margin (+5) against Michelle as he does against Biden.

All of the polling points to a Democrat party in panic and beset by chaos.

What I find most interesting is that a year ago all of the political pundits predicted that would be case if the Republicans nominated Donald Trump.

It was said that would create deep divisions in the party that would create insurmountable obstacles to mounting a challenge to Joe Biden in 2024.

That was then...this is now.

Buckle up for an interesting ride to November.

The Fragile Generation

The Federal Reserve Bank and it regional affiliates employ an army of PhD economists and statisticians to conduct surveys and analyze data on the current economic status and future prospects of the nation.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia periodically conducts what they refer to as a LIFE Survey report that collects data on four major information categories from consumers involving Labor, Income, Finances and Expectations.

Source: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/consumer-finance/reports/life-survey/cfi-life-report-apr-2024.pdf

The most recent LIFE survey from April was recently released and it contains some interesting insights.

One of the areas the Fed is interested in the Labor category are various impediments that might affect an individual remaining in the workforce or, if unemployed, looking for a job.

Look at these responses by age group as to concerns that employees have involving work.

42.1% of those employed in the age 18-35 age group are concerned about being exposed to illness at work?

That compares to only 29.9% of 35-55 year olds, 21.4% of 56-65 year olds and 11.9% of those age 65+.

What has the Covid hysteria done to the minds of young people?

In over 40 years of work I don't remember having one thought about being exposed to illness at work.

If anything, would it not be logical that the older you are the more you would be concerned about exposure to illness at work.

This data is completely upside down compared to standard logic.

The survey also finds that same level of concern in those who are not employed but looking for employment.

46.4% of 18-35 year olds looking for employment state they are concerned about being exposed to illness at work.

That contrasts with 37.9% for those ages 36-55.

The sample size for those looking for work after age 55 must have been too small to show the responses for these age groups.

In looking at the data, young workers have also concerns about every question posed to them at considerably higher levels than older age cohorts on a range of issues---child care, senior care, employer shutting down, employer's ability to stay in business, being laid off or access to reliable transportation. 

Have we created a generation of neurotic young people consumed with anxiety, worry and fear about almost everything?

You can't help but consider the contrast of the responses of the 18-35 year olds in that survey with those individuals of a similar age who stormed the Normandy beaches 80 years ago

I wonder how many of these young men were concerned about exposure to illness at work?

Source: https://www.nationalww2museum.org/visit/museum-campus-guide/louisiana-memorial-pavilion/d-day-invasion-normandy

Looking deeper in the data of the LIFE Survey there is another data element that should give pause to generations of all ages.

The survey asked individuals whether they were unable to pay all or some of their bills.

64.8% of respondents say they are not able to pay all or some of their bills.

Interestingly, the 18-35 year olds are in the best position on this question 

However, among those age 66+ an astounding 74.6% state they cannot pay all their bills right now.

Among those making $150,000+ per year, 63.4% say they cannot pay all of their bills. This is not much different than the 67.4% of those earning less than $40,000 per year.

I guess this proves the old adage that your financial situation is not so much determined by how much you make but how you spend it.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Consumer Finance Institute LIFE Survey Data

A fragile generation and a potentially fragile economy?

What could go wrong?

Five Facts From June, 2024

BeeLine is rooted in facts and data. It is the foundation from which everything I write is based.

Five facts from BeeLine posts in June and in my research during the past month that I thought were particularly salient, surprising, or stupefying.

In a world in which opinions seem to be based more on feelings, emotions and prevailing narratives it might make sense to put more focus on straightforward facts, data and truths. 

Consider these facts and data and consider the context they provide to the larger issues of our world today.

A Generational Divide

It is common to see divides in attitudes, beliefs and values between older and younger generations.

This has been true since the beginning of time.

However, have we ever seen divisions this large on values that are so fundamental to the future of a society?

When you have these large divides in attitudes on fundamental values such as whether America is the best place to live or the importance of having children, the survival of the society becomes an open question.

Ronald Reagan once famously said that "freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction."

It is not the only thing that is one generation away from disappearing.

Job Growth in Context

Joe Biden likes to talk about the job growth the U.S. has seen during his administration.

Of course, most of the jobs were "bounce back" jobs that merely came back after being lost during the Covid shutdown.

What he also does not mention is who is getting the new net growth jobs.

All of the job growth in recent years has gone to foreign born workers.

It is true that some of this is due to the fact that native-born boomers are aging out of the workforce.

However, their children and grandchildren are not taking those jobs.

In the last four years, the number of foreign born workers has increased by approximately 4 million workers while the number of native born workers has been flat. 

Over the last two years, the vast majority of these foreign born workers have been illegal immigrants.

A growing economy has masked the potential societal issues with this trend.

However, a slowing economy and a future recession will be a different story.

We may not see a recession next month or even within the next year. However, we will see one in the foreseeable future. 

We will then see the full force of the compounding effects of illegal immigration when millions who want to work can't find a job--both natives and immigrants--legal and illegal.

Illegal Immigration Is A Huge Issue For Voters 

Illegal Immigration is a huge issue for voters in 2024.

How do I know that?

This poll speaks volumes.

This is the second poll in the last several months that showed similar results.

62% of all voters state that they support a federal policy to deport all undocumented immigrants.

A majority of all Hispanic voters support it as well.

It is surprising that such a significant majority of registered voters are in agreement on what would be considered as about as hard line position as you could get on this issue.

I think it shows the depth of frustration and concern that voters have about the border invasion under Biden.

I spoke with a Trump supporter recently who told me he wished that Trump would soften his views about deporting illegals. He said he thought it would not play with swing voters.

I asked him if he was aware of this polling. He was not. This poll shows that even Moderate and Independent voters support deportation by 60% or more.

However, the main reason that Trump should not soften his views is that if he is elected with this as his position it gives him political power to implement strong measures on illegal immigration.

Trump may not be able to do everything he wants but if you run on an issue and win it gives legitimacy to implementing that policy or something close. This is the political capital that comes from the votes of the people.

Israel/Palestine Peace?

Anyone who believes that there will be peace between Israel and Palestine anytime soon might want to take a look at this recent poll of Palestinians.

Even though Gaza has been decimated by Israel in the war with Hamas, by a margin of 67%-24%, Palestinians still believe that Hamas will be victorious in the war.

The breakdown of the numbers do show that Palestinians living in Gaza are much more in touch with reality than those in the West Bank. Those living in Gaza only believe that Hamas will be victorious by a 48%-25% margin. The number of Gazan's who believe Hamas will win in the end has also declined over the last three months.

Those living in the West Bank, and more isolated from the war, are much more optimistic for Hamas.

More troubling for the future of a peaceful solution is the fact that by large measures the Palestinians believe the only way for them to reach their goals is through armed struggle.

It 

It does not provide much hope for any negotiated peaceful, two-state solution for stability between Israel and the Palestinians.

Unfortunately, it appears the only way to achieve peace is the total submission and humiliation of Hamas.

Any desire to wage war among the Palestinian people has to be totally wiped away by totally breaking their will.

We have seen this before.

We saw it in the Civil War and we saw it in World II with Germany and Japan.

It is harsh. It is heartbreaking. However, it appears to be the only way to restore humanity in a place where it clearly has been lost.

Trump/Biden Debate 

Polling is starting to come in after the Trump/Biden debate last week.

CBS News had a poll that asked the question as to who won the debate.

Forget about the Democrats who thought Biden won by a 39%-16% margin.

Or the Republicans who declared Trump the winner by 93%-1%.

Independents favored Trump 61%-8%!

I don't believe I have ever seen a more lopsided result from Independent voters on any issue or opinion.

There is a lot of contradictory reporting right now on whether Biden will stay in the race.

Some are adamant he will drop out of the race.

Others are reporting that his family has urged him to stay the course.

There is only one logical answer but logic will not necessarily drive this decision.

There are too many close to Biden who will lose a lot if he is no longer in office.

The only thing that is certain is that time is running short to make a switch.

They cannot "wait and see" very long to see if the polls improve.

Several key states have strict rules and deadlines on whether a candidate can be replaced on the ballot once certified. These include critical swing states such as Wisconsin and Nevada.

There are also legal restrictions on transferring the campaign funds raised for the Biden/Harris campaign to another candidate other than Kamala Harris.

Every day a decision is delayed introduces more problems if Biden would step aside at this late date.

No Way To Spin It

I have watched a lot of debates in my time.

It is customary to have a spin room for comments after the debate so that the supporters of the candidate can spin the narrative of how great their guy or gal was on the stage.

They never fail in spinning something good about the debate performance.

That was not possible last night with Joe Biden.

There was no way to spin it into a positive.

In fact, it was hard to find anyone who was even willing to be in that spin room.

There was no way to spin it.

Even the headlines in the anti-Trump Drudge Report left no doubt.

Biden put on a 90 minute show of why he has no business being President or running for another term.

The Democrat establishment is in full meltdown mode after the debate.

Trump was far from perfect in his performance.

Trump could have benefited from participating in some debates during the primary season.

He missed several opportunities to make points in the debate.

I thought his closing was particularly weak.

However, none of that is going to be remembered due to Biden's disastrous performance.

I wrote this in my pre-debate preview earlier this week.

Biden has a very low bar to clear in this debate due to those expectations.

However, it is hard to imagine anyone who is less prepared to be standing behind a podium for an hour and a half devoid of a teleprompter and note cards than Joe Biden.

Any public speaking appearance he has done in the last three years have been heavily scripted and he has rarely been placed in a situation where he has had to make extemporaneous remarks.

Over most of the past four years Biden has almost never been put in a position where he has had to think on his feet and react to unscripted questions or scrutiny.

He has been protected by his staff to the extent he often tells reporters "they will not allow me to answer questions" pointing to the staff.

Frank Luntz is known for putting together focus groups of undecided voters for debates like this got a comment from one of the participants that sums up the night pretty well.

They suggested how very low that bar was for Biden.

Biden just needed to show up and look alive.

He could not even do that.

What is even more telling in all of this is the following.

Biden picked CNN to host the debate.

He picked the moderators.

He chose the format.

He chose the date.

He spent the last week totally out of public view working exclusively on debate prep at Camp David.

If this is what you get from Biden with all of that planning and preparation what do you get from him when a real national emergency emerges that requires sharp thinking and reasoned decisions in a short time period? 

I would expect that we will see increasing calls from prominent Democrats and media pundits for Biden to   step aside for 2024 in the coming days.

We may even see some calls for invocation of the 25th Amendment for removal of Biden due to Presidential disability.

It will not be easy for Biden to recover from this.

All of this also makes the prediction I made in January, 2023 that I thought there was only a 1% chance that both Biden and Trump would be on the November, 2024 ballot pretty good.

I also believed that there was a greater chance that Biden would not be on the ticket than Trump.

That bet has not looked very good as the 2024 election date got closer and closer.

However, I did not back away from that prediction.

I remained convinced that at some point the Democrats would be forced to push Biden out of the race due to poor polling numbers and/or his mumbling, bumbling performance as President.

The Democrats simply cannot afford to let Biden take the entire party down in 2024.

My prediction looks a lot better right now than it ever did.

We are now less than  90 days away from when early voting will start in some states and less than 130 days until Election Day.

There are now only 52 days until the Democrat convention.

Democrats who have stated for months that Trump is a threat to democracy look like they may have to nominate a candidate without ever garnering one vote in the primaries.

The candidate will be chosen by about 4,000 Democrat party delegates who are currently pledged to support Biden.

Why is this happening? 

It is because Democrats chose to protect Joe Biden and ignore his infirmities and effectively prohibit anyone from challenging him during the primary process.

The Democrats have a. real mess on their hands.

However, it is all self-inflicted.

Sir Walter Scott's words were never more apt than today.

A tangled web.

That is the only way to describe what Biden, his allies and †he Democrat party have foisted on the American people.

There is no other way to spin it.

A Debate For The Aged

 Tomorrow night's Presidential election debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden could go down as a "Debate For The Ages".

It involves what is effectively two incumbents squaring off in a debate that is being held months earlier than usual. 

I would expect there would be a large tv audience as this is a rare opportunity to see both candidates on the same stage interacting with each other.

This debate is also unusual in that even though it is a CNN event with their moderators, it will be televised on a number of tv networks beyond CNN as it is being made available as a public service by the network. 

As a result, Fox News, ABC News, CBS News, NBC News and NewsNation are all planning to air the CNN debate on their networks.

Variety reports that the financial incentive for the networks picking up the CNN feed involves the ability to sell two planned three-and-a-half minute commercial breaks with their own ads, not to mention their own pre- and post-event programming,

This much tv coverage on that many networks should give the debate a lot of viewer interest.

That is particularly important for both sides as they attempt to persuade undecided voters who are also likely to be those who don't follow politics as closely as committed Democrats and Republicans. The debate is a unique opportunity to capture their interest as few other events will during the campaign.

Debates usually take place no earlier than late September. Most are scheduled for October.

This debate is taking place before either candidate has even been officially nominated.

It also might very well be the sole debate between Biden and Trump (more on that below).

However, it will most likely be remembered as "A Debate For The Aged" as it involves the two oldest candidates to ever be on the Presidential ballot.

Trump just turned 78 this month and Biden will be 82 in November.

Credit: https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/biden-trump-debate-cnn-tv-news-scramble-1236044525/

It also involves two candidates neither of which have appeared on a debate stage for nearly four years.

Neither candidate participated in primary debates. Biden did not because he was an incumbent that was not seriously challenged by any Democrat. Trump simply refused to debate since he had a commanding lead in the polls from the beginning. He saw no upside in debating. 

This is highly unusual in the modern era where candidates must endure multiple debates while running for their party's nomination.

For example, in 2016, Donald Trump participated in 12 primary debates.

Joe Biden took part in 11 primary debates in 2020 despite the schedule being curtailed by Covid.

I have to believe that neither candidate is going to be at the top of their game due to the fact that they have not been in the arena and are not battle tested recently.

This might pose more of a problem for Trump in that expectations are going to be very low for Biden entering the debate due to his frequent stumbles and mumbles in public appearances.

Biden has a very low bar to clear in this debate due to those expectations.

However, it is hard to imagine anyone who is less prepared to be standing behind a podium for an hour and a half devoid of a teleprompter and note cards than Joe Biden.

Any public speaking appearance he has done in the last three years have been heavily scripted and he has rarely been placed in a situation where he has had to make extemporaneous remarks.

Over most of the past four years Biden has almost never been put in a position where he has had to think on his feet and react to unscripted questions or scrutiny.

He has been protected by his staff to the extent he often tells reporters "they will not allow me to answer questions" pointing to the staff.

He is the President of the United States!. He can't answer a question if he wants to? Who is really in charge?

Of course, I am assuming that the CNN moderators are going to play in straight and not slant the tone or the questions to the benefit of Biden. That is a distainct possibility considering the known bias that both Jake Tapper and Dana Bash have had for Trump in the past.

I would hope that CNN has not given the questions to Biden's team in advance.

At one time it would have been unthinkable for a "journalist" to do anything like that.

However, we know that CNN"s Donna Brazille fed debate questions to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Source: https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donna-brazile-wikileaks-fallout-230553

Considering the animus that those at CNN have for Trump it is a legitimate concern.

Although Trump has not done any debates recently, he is constantly doing rallies and long media interviews that are largely unscripted. He can talk at length on a number of issues without notes.

Will Biden be able to rise to the occasion with so much at stake?

His handlers clearly want him to appear vigorous and in command of the issues.

Trump's handlers have to be hoping that he stays disciplined in his message and measured in his comportment during the night. 

When this debate was scheduled I surmised that the early date before the convention made me believe that the debate is a test of Biden's abilities.

This is what I wrote about the debate shortly after it was first proposed.

Biden was only willing to debate in June (before the conventions) and in early September (two months before Election Day).

These dates tell me that the Biden team did not want any debate close to the election from which there could be no recovery from a bad debate performance.

The June debate also suggests that a bad performance by Biden could result in calls to have him step aside and be replaced at the Democratic convention in August

What other reason could there be to have a debate beforer the conventions and more than four months before the election?

The September debate also provides an exit ramp in that pulling the plug on Biden at that early date  provides time to replace him before ballots are printed and early voting begins.

Early voting begins as early as September 20 in several states. 

In fact, it would not surprise me that Democrat party insiders were already working to persuade Biden to step aside and he resisted. The early dates of the debates might have been established as a compromise for Biden to prove to the insiders that he could hold his own against Trump. 

Biden might have told them that if he couldn't handle the debates, he would step aside and the party could insert their favored candidate.

However, if he proved he could go toe to toe with Trump, they would shut up and leave him alone.

This debate may determine whether Biden stays on the ballot this year.

In any event, even though a second debate has been proposed for early September, I don't think we will see Trump and Biden on the same debate stage again.

I am of the belief that there will likely only be one "Debate For The Aged".

Why do I say that?

Let's consider several possibilities.

1. Biden does very poorly at the debate. This leads to calls by Democrats for him to be replaced. 

    He is replaced by another candidate (Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton etc).

    There is no second debate with Trump and Biden.

2. Biden gives a passable debate performance and there are no calls to replace him on the ballot.

    If Biden performs at any level that is acceptable his team will simply not want to risk a second debate.

    There is no second debate with Trump and Biden.

3. Biden gives a marginal debate performance that is not enough to force him out of the race.

    However, Trump is the clear winner in the debate.

    There is no second debate as Trump has no motivation to do another debate if he leads in the polls. 

The odds suggest that one of these scenarios comes true.

Pay close attention on Thursday night because this might be both a debate for the aged and the ages at the same time.

This is not a debate you want to watch at party or in a bar. 

This is a debate that you want to watch with close attention as you will likely not have a second chance at seeing these two together on the same stage again.

And what comes from it may be quite consequential in determining the arc of this Presidential race and America's future.

Perception Is Reality

I review at a lot of polling data each week.

It is important to understand that polls only measure the perceptions of voters.

I used to spend a great deal of time in Washington, D.C. lobbying on tax issues.

A common theme in that city is that "perception is reality".

As a result, the reality of a situation or issue does not matter to most politicians.

The only thing that matters is how the issue is perceived by voters.

Of course, perceptions are formed by a lot of factors beyond reality.

This is one of the reasons that the media narrative becomes so important in shaping the perceptions and views of voters.

This is something that Donald Trump had to battle his entire term.

"He was elected due to Russian collusion."

"The fine people on both sides in Charlottesville."

"Trump said to drink or inject bleach to combat Covid".

It doesn't matter if none of these narratives were true. 

Most people rely on headlines or short sound bites that were created to form a narrative. Few understand and know the true reality of the situation.

Biden and the Democrats are battling voter perceptions themselves in 2024.

They saw inflation moderating, low unemployment and a surging stock market and decided earlier this year to run on "Bidenomics".

The Biden administration  and the mainstream media were never able to understand why voters were not buying the message.

The reality is that most voters are not feeling good about the economy, inflation or their personal financial situation.

The rate of inflation has moderated but almost all prices are up at least 20%+ under Biden in a little over three years. Voters were accustomed to it taking a decade to see that level of price increases in the economy.

Compare changes in the CPI index between Trump and Biden.

That small moderation recently does not change the perception of voters of what they have experienced the last three years.

Nominal wages are up under Biden but real weekly earnings have not been able to keep up with inflation as this Federal Reserve chart demonstrates.

This is why in a recent Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll by a margin of 51%-32% voters stated that their personal financial situation was better off under the Trump administration than the Biden administration.

Source: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1783336309211177467/photo/3

However, perceptions among voters differ greatly on this question depending on whether someone identifies as a Democrat, a Republican or Independent.

This should not be the case if the facts and the reality of someone's personal situation was controlling.

For example, among Democrats, 63% said their personal financial situation has been better under Biden and only 15% said it was better with Trump.

However, among Republicans, only 4% said they were better off under Biden and 88% said they were better off with Trump.

For Independents, 50% said they were better off with Trump and 23% were better off with Biden. That is undoubtedly much closer to reality than with the other groups.

Underlying bias and the perception that voters have of the candidates heavily influences voter opinions on issues.

Perception is reality. 

All of that is even more evident when you look at a recent poll question which asked voters whether they supported a recent proposal by Donald Trump to exempt tips received as taxable income.

When Donald Trump's name is not attached to the proposal, Democrats favor not txsing tips by a 40 point margin according to a recent Fox News poll.

Support drops to a -10 point margin if voters are told that it is a Trump proposal.

Republicans favor not taxing tips by a 46 point margin (similar to the 40 point favorability of Democrats on the issue).

However, with Trump's name attached, support increases to a 71 point margin.

Perception is reality.

You see the same thing in recent polling about voter support for whether transgender girls (males) should be banned from participating in K-12 girls' sports.

Overall, 51% of Americans in the poll support the ban. Only 22% oppose it. The rest have no opinion.

However, note that only 34% of 18-34 year old females state that they would be in favor of such a policy.

These young women are huge outliers on the issue even compared to young males of the same age.

Credit: https://twitter.com/data_depot/status/1800284060042055902

This is despite the fact that they are the closest in age to those school age kids and it would be other girls who would be disadvantaged by allowing post-puberty males to compete with girls.

Do these young women really believe that allowing biological males to compete against young girls is fair or has this become their view in order to be perceived as a woke  progressive feminist?

Perception is reality.

One of the most interesting examples of perception completely obliterating reality is in a recent poll I saw that surveyed Palestinians.

Two of the questions posed were on whether Hamas or Israel would win the war and what was the best way going forward in achieving Palestinian goals and becoming an independent state.

On the question of who was winning the war, by a 67% to 24% margin, Palestinians overall believed that Hamas would be victorious. Of note, that is higher than it was three months ago.

This is despite the utter devastation and ruin the war has brought to Gaza.

Source: https://twitter.com/AGHamilton29/status/1801573286582587586

 

The breakdown of the numbers do show that Palestinians living in Gaza are much more in touch with reality than those in the West Bank. Those living in Gaza only believe that Hamas will be victorious by a 48%-25% margin. The number of Gaza's who believe Hamas will win in the end has also declined over the last three months.

Those living in the West Bank, and more isolated from the war, are much more optimistic for Hamas.

More troubling for the future of a peaceful solution is the fact that by large measures the Palestinians believe the only way for them to reach their goals is through armed struggle.

Source: https://twitter.com/AGHamilton29/status/1801573286582587586

It does not provide much hope for any negotiated peaceful, two-state solution for stability between Israel and the Palestinians.

Seeing this confirms what I wrote last December as the war was in its early stages as to how this would likely play out.

It is going to be a hard path forward for Israel. The death, damage and destruction that it has inflicted on Gaza and the Palestinians will not be easily forgotten. It promises another generation of greater hatred for Israel.

The only way around this is for Israel to accept nothing less than for the unconditional surrender of Hamas.

There can be no negotiated peace.

The only answer is the total submission and humiliation of Hamas.

We have seen this before.

We saw it in the Civil War and we saw it in World II with Germany and Japan.

Leaders in those times saw that the only way to move forward in peace after so much death and destruction was unconditional surrender. The enemy had to be defeated and there had to be complete demoralization and submission by the society that supported the enemy leaders if there was to be hope for a future living together peacefully.

This is what occurred with the South in the Civil War and Germany and Japan after World War II.

The will to wage war was completely extinguished in the citizenry.

The same will be necessary with Palestinians in Gaza.

Israel will be under immense pressure in the coming days to negotiate peace with Hamas short of seeking its unconditional surrender.

Over the last several generations we have become accustomed to negotiated peace settlements to end wars. We saw it in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Wars ended with no clear winners and losers.

Israel has pushed back and defended itself each time it has been attacked during the 75 years of its existence but it never sought to completely vanquish its enemies. 

We are in a different time. I hope and trust that Israel understands this.

Perception is reality.

At times the only way forward is to obliterate all perceptions so that only reality remains.

Unfortunately, these are the times we live in.