Perception Is Reality

I review at a lot of polling data each week.

It is important to understand that polls only measure the perceptions of voters.

I used to spend a great deal of time in Washington, D.C. lobbying on tax issues.

A common theme in that city is that "perception is reality".

As a result, the reality of a situation or issue does not matter to most politicians.

The only thing that matters is how the issue is perceived by voters.

Of course, perceptions are formed by a lot of factors beyond reality.

This is one of the reasons that the media narrative becomes so important in shaping the perceptions and views of voters.

This is something that Donald Trump had to battle his entire term.

"He was elected due to Russian collusion."

"The fine people on both sides in Charlottesville."

"Trump said to drink or inject bleach to combat Covid".

It doesn't matter if none of these narratives were true. 

Most people rely on headlines or short sound bites that were created to form a narrative. Few understand and know the true reality of the situation.

Biden and the Democrats are battling voter perceptions themselves in 2024.

They saw inflation moderating, low unemployment and a surging stock market and decided earlier this year to run on "Bidenomics".

The Biden administration  and the mainstream media were never able to understand why voters were not buying the message.

The reality is that most voters are not feeling good about the economy, inflation or their personal financial situation.

The rate of inflation has moderated but almost all prices are up at least 20%+ under Biden in a little over three years. Voters were accustomed to it taking a decade to see that level of price increases in the economy.

Compare changes in the CPI index between Trump and Biden.

That small moderation recently does not change the perception of voters of what they have experienced the last three years.

Nominal wages are up under Biden but real weekly earnings have not been able to keep up with inflation as this Federal Reserve chart demonstrates.

This is why in a recent Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll by a margin of 51%-32% voters stated that their personal financial situation was better off under the Trump administration than the Biden administration.

Source: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1783336309211177467/photo/3

However, perceptions among voters differ greatly on this question depending on whether someone identifies as a Democrat, a Republican or Independent.

This should not be the case if the facts and the reality of someone's personal situation was controlling.

For example, among Democrats, 63% said their personal financial situation has been better under Biden and only 15% said it was better with Trump.

However, among Republicans, only 4% said they were better off under Biden and 88% said they were better off with Trump.

For Independents, 50% said they were better off with Trump and 23% were better off with Biden. That is undoubtedly much closer to reality than with the other groups.

Underlying bias and the perception that voters have of the candidates heavily influences voter opinions on issues.

Perception is reality. 

All of that is even more evident when you look at a recent poll question which asked voters whether they supported a recent proposal by Donald Trump to exempt tips received as taxable income.

When Donald Trump's name is not attached to the proposal, Democrats favor not txsing tips by a 40 point margin according to a recent Fox News poll.

Support drops to a -10 point margin if voters are told that it is a Trump proposal.

Republicans favor not taxing tips by a 46 point margin (similar to the 40 point favorability of Democrats on the issue).

However, with Trump's name attached, support increases to a 71 point margin.

Perception is reality.

You see the same thing in recent polling about voter support for whether transgender girls (males) should be banned from participating in K-12 girls' sports.

Overall, 51% of Americans in the poll support the ban. Only 22% oppose it. The rest have no opinion.

However, note that only 34% of 18-34 year old females state that they would be in favor of such a policy.

These young women are huge outliers on the issue even compared to young males of the same age.

Credit: https://twitter.com/data_depot/status/1800284060042055902

This is despite the fact that they are the closest in age to those school age kids and it would be other girls who would be disadvantaged by allowing post-puberty males to compete with girls.

Do these young women really believe that allowing biological males to compete against young girls is fair or has this become their view in order to be perceived as a woke  progressive feminist?

Perception is reality.

One of the most interesting examples of perception completely obliterating reality is in a recent poll I saw that surveyed Palestinians.

Two of the questions posed were on whether Hamas or Israel would win the war and what was the best way going forward in achieving Palestinian goals and becoming an independent state.

On the question of who was winning the war, by a 67% to 24% margin, Palestinians overall believed that Hamas would be victorious. Of note, that is higher than it was three months ago.

This is despite the utter devastation and ruin the war has brought to Gaza.

Source: https://twitter.com/AGHamilton29/status/1801573286582587586

 

The breakdown of the numbers do show that Palestinians living in Gaza are much more in touch with reality than those in the West Bank. Those living in Gaza only believe that Hamas will be victorious by a 48%-25% margin. The number of Gaza's who believe Hamas will win in the end has also declined over the last three months.

Those living in the West Bank, and more isolated from the war, are much more optimistic for Hamas.

More troubling for the future of a peaceful solution is the fact that by large measures the Palestinians believe the only way for them to reach their goals is through armed struggle.

Source: https://twitter.com/AGHamilton29/status/1801573286582587586

It does not provide much hope for any negotiated peaceful, two-state solution for stability between Israel and the Palestinians.

Seeing this confirms what I wrote last December as the war was in its early stages as to how this would likely play out.

It is going to be a hard path forward for Israel. The death, damage and destruction that it has inflicted on Gaza and the Palestinians will not be easily forgotten. It promises another generation of greater hatred for Israel.

The only way around this is for Israel to accept nothing less than for the unconditional surrender of Hamas.

There can be no negotiated peace.

The only answer is the total submission and humiliation of Hamas.

We have seen this before.

We saw it in the Civil War and we saw it in World II with Germany and Japan.

Leaders in those times saw that the only way to move forward in peace after so much death and destruction was unconditional surrender. The enemy had to be defeated and there had to be complete demoralization and submission by the society that supported the enemy leaders if there was to be hope for a future living together peacefully.

This is what occurred with the South in the Civil War and Germany and Japan after World War II.

The will to wage war was completely extinguished in the citizenry.

The same will be necessary with Palestinians in Gaza.

Israel will be under immense pressure in the coming days to negotiate peace with Hamas short of seeking its unconditional surrender.

Over the last several generations we have become accustomed to negotiated peace settlements to end wars. We saw it in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Wars ended with no clear winners and losers.

Israel has pushed back and defended itself each time it has been attacked during the 75 years of its existence but it never sought to completely vanquish its enemies. 

We are in a different time. I hope and trust that Israel understands this.

Perception is reality.

At times the only way forward is to obliterate all perceptions so that only reality remains.

Unfortunately, these are the times we live in.