Five Facts From June, 2024

BeeLine is rooted in facts and data. It is the foundation from which everything I write is based.

Five facts from BeeLine posts in June and in my research during the past month that I thought were particularly salient, surprising, or stupefying.

In a world in which opinions seem to be based more on feelings, emotions and prevailing narratives it might make sense to put more focus on straightforward facts, data and truths. 

Consider these facts and data and consider the context they provide to the larger issues of our world today.

A Generational Divide

It is common to see divides in attitudes, beliefs and values between older and younger generations.

This has been true since the beginning of time.

However, have we ever seen divisions this large on values that are so fundamental to the future of a society?

When you have these large divides in attitudes on fundamental values such as whether America is the best place to live or the importance of having children, the survival of the society becomes an open question.

Ronald Reagan once famously said that "freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction."

It is not the only thing that is one generation away from disappearing.

Job Growth in Context

Joe Biden likes to talk about the job growth the U.S. has seen during his administration.

Of course, most of the jobs were "bounce back" jobs that merely came back after being lost during the Covid shutdown.

What he also does not mention is who is getting the new net growth jobs.

All of the job growth in recent years has gone to foreign born workers.

It is true that some of this is due to the fact that native-born boomers are aging out of the workforce.

However, their children and grandchildren are not taking those jobs.

In the last four years, the number of foreign born workers has increased by approximately 4 million workers while the number of native born workers has been flat. 

Over the last two years, the vast majority of these foreign born workers have been illegal immigrants.

A growing economy has masked the potential societal issues with this trend.

However, a slowing economy and a future recession will be a different story.

We may not see a recession next month or even within the next year. However, we will see one in the foreseeable future. 

We will then see the full force of the compounding effects of illegal immigration when millions who want to work can't find a job--both natives and immigrants--legal and illegal.

Illegal Immigration Is A Huge Issue For Voters 

Illegal Immigration is a huge issue for voters in 2024.

How do I know that?

This poll speaks volumes.

This is the second poll in the last several months that showed similar results.

62% of all voters state that they support a federal policy to deport all undocumented immigrants.

A majority of all Hispanic voters support it as well.

It is surprising that such a significant majority of registered voters are in agreement on what would be considered as about as hard line position as you could get on this issue.

I think it shows the depth of frustration and concern that voters have about the border invasion under Biden.

I spoke with a Trump supporter recently who told me he wished that Trump would soften his views about deporting illegals. He said he thought it would not play with swing voters.

I asked him if he was aware of this polling. He was not. This poll shows that even Moderate and Independent voters support deportation by 60% or more.

However, the main reason that Trump should not soften his views is that if he is elected with this as his position it gives him political power to implement strong measures on illegal immigration.

Trump may not be able to do everything he wants but if you run on an issue and win it gives legitimacy to implementing that policy or something close. This is the political capital that comes from the votes of the people.

Israel/Palestine Peace?

Anyone who believes that there will be peace between Israel and Palestine anytime soon might want to take a look at this recent poll of Palestinians.

Even though Gaza has been decimated by Israel in the war with Hamas, by a margin of 67%-24%, Palestinians still believe that Hamas will be victorious in the war.

The breakdown of the numbers do show that Palestinians living in Gaza are much more in touch with reality than those in the West Bank. Those living in Gaza only believe that Hamas will be victorious by a 48%-25% margin. The number of Gazan's who believe Hamas will win in the end has also declined over the last three months.

Those living in the West Bank, and more isolated from the war, are much more optimistic for Hamas.

More troubling for the future of a peaceful solution is the fact that by large measures the Palestinians believe the only way for them to reach their goals is through armed struggle.

It 

It does not provide much hope for any negotiated peaceful, two-state solution for stability between Israel and the Palestinians.

Unfortunately, it appears the only way to achieve peace is the total submission and humiliation of Hamas.

Any desire to wage war among the Palestinian people has to be totally wiped away by totally breaking their will.

We have seen this before.

We saw it in the Civil War and we saw it in World II with Germany and Japan.

It is harsh. It is heartbreaking. However, it appears to be the only way to restore humanity in a place where it clearly has been lost.

Trump/Biden Debate 

Polling is starting to come in after the Trump/Biden debate last week.

CBS News had a poll that asked the question as to who won the debate.

Forget about the Democrats who thought Biden won by a 39%-16% margin.

Or the Republicans who declared Trump the winner by 93%-1%.

Independents favored Trump 61%-8%!

I don't believe I have ever seen a more lopsided result from Independent voters on any issue or opinion.

There is a lot of contradictory reporting right now on whether Biden will stay in the race.

Some are adamant he will drop out of the race.

Others are reporting that his family has urged him to stay the course.

There is only one logical answer but logic will not necessarily drive this decision.

There are too many close to Biden who will lose a lot if he is no longer in office.

The only thing that is certain is that time is running short to make a switch.

They cannot "wait and see" very long to see if the polls improve.

Several key states have strict rules and deadlines on whether a candidate can be replaced on the ballot once certified. These include critical swing states such as Wisconsin and Nevada.

There are also legal restrictions on transferring the campaign funds raised for the Biden/Harris campaign to another candidate other than Kamala Harris.

Every day a decision is delayed introduces more problems if Biden would step aside at this late date.