Five Facts From May, 2024

BeeLine is rooted in facts and data. It is the foundation from which everything I write is based.

Five facts from BeeLine posts in May and in my research during the past month that I  thought were particularly salient, surprising, or stupefying.

In a world in which opinions seem to be based more on feelings, emotions and prevailing narratives it might make sense to put more focus on straightforward facts, data and truths. 

Consider these facts and data and consider the context they provide to the larger issues of our world today.

The Trump Trial

Donald Trump was convicted by a New York jury on a charge that he falsified business records in order to cover up an underlying crime.

What was the business record that Trump allegedly falsified?

The prosecution argued that it was checks written to his attorney Michael Cohen.

They had to make this argument because Trump clearly had nothing to do with how this payment was classified on any books of record. His accountants would have done that.

In addition, these checks were written after Trump had already been elected President. 

The checks that Trump wrote were also not on any business or campaign account.

11 checks were made out to Cohen. Nine were written on Trump's personal account and two were written on the account of a personal revocable trust.

None were written from an account involving Trump's business or the Trump campaign.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/30/evidence-trump-hush-money-trial/#:~:text=In%20total%2C%2011%20checks%20were,were%20from%20Trump's%20personal%20account.

How is a check written on a personal account a "business record"?

The prosecution argument also seemed to be that writing the checks out of Trump's personal account was part of a cover up and they should have been written on his business or his campaign bank accounts.

Of course, if that had occurred we know that it would be said that Trump was using business or campaign funds illegally for a personal expense.

The prosecution also argued that because Cohen was paid for legal expenses, which he had to report as income (when part of the payments were reimbursement for the non-disclosure agreement which would not be income), that more taxes were paid to the government than should have been paid due to the improper accounting.  Incredibly, the prosecution argued that paying more taxes than are owed is tax fraud.

This is an excerpt from the closing argument of the prosecution in Trump's trial.

Credit: https://twitter.com/gregg_re/status/1796574143145492748

Who knew that paying more tax than is legally owed is tax fraud when Donald Trump is involved?

How else can this entire trial be described as anything other than as a kangaroo court within a banana republic?

Energy and the Economy

Energy makes the world economy go. We need it for anything we want to do. It needs to be available and it needs to be affordable. The economy does not work without energy. The consumer cannot spend on other things in the economy if they are spending excessive amounts on energy. If the consumer doesn't spend, the economy does not grow. If the economy does not grow, more and more people go without jobs.

When muscle power was the prime energy source in the world we could produce very little. Firewood and domesticated animals improved our ability to produce. However, the introduction of energy sources like coal, oil and gas allowed us to greatly leverage our productive capacity. 

It is not a coincidence that the industrial revolution coincided with the introduction of so-called fossil fuels beginning with coal and moving on to oil and gas and the development of machines that were powered by these energy sources.

If there is one absolute truth in the world today it is that you cannot have economic growth and prosperity for your citizenry without accessible, affordable energy.

There is no such thing as a low-energy, rich country,

 

Masculinity and Femininity In Decline

90% of Boomer men say they are "completely/mostly" masculine, while only 57% of Gen Z men same the same.

Almost all 65+ year old men say they feel masculine but only 57% of 17-27 year old Gen Z's do? 

Similarly, while 87% of Boomer women say they're "completely/mostly" feminine, only 67% of Gen Z women do.

70 year olds have greater self-perceptions of masculinity and femininity than 20 year olds?

Is there something in the water?

Illegal Invasion

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data reveals that 10 million illegals have been encountered at the borders of the United States during the Biden administration.

The CBP estimates that an additional 1.5-2.0 million illegals entered the country and "gotaway" without being encountered at the border.

To put that in context, the total of 12 million illegals in the last 3+ years is equal to the total number of immigrants who passed through Ellis Island in New York during its 63 years of operation between 1894 and 1952.

However, we are told that Joe Biden might come out this week and announce some executive orders to curtail illegal immigration with the election coming up.

My guess is that any executive order that Biden puts in place on illegal immigration will have a shelf life of about five months.

What about the last thee years? What about the next four years?

Who Is Going To Buy The Debt?

A record $9.3 trillion of U.S government bonds will mature within the next 12 months and have to be refinanced. The Treasury has continued to rely on shorter-dated maturities to finance its spending with a third of the existing US debt maturing within a year from now.

The Treasury has had to rely on short-term maturities as the longer-dated debt instruments have seen tepid demand.

Who is going to buy the debt?

Foreign governments and central bankers have been pulling back on their purchases of U.S. debt.

The bulk of these purchases will have to come from domestic sources---mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, banks and households---or the Fed will have to step in to fill any gaps.

Considering the amount of debt that has to be refinanced in the next 12 months is it realistic that interest rates will come down?

Credit: https://twitter.com/MacroKova/status/1795972691112923526

To put this number in context, as recently as 2007 the entire U.S. debt was $9.3 trillion. It had taken over 200 years to accumulate that debt total.

The U.S. now has almost $35 trillion in debt and has to find buyers for the $9 trillion that has to be financed in the next year plus an additional $3 trillion or so to finance deficit spending over the next 12 months.

How can this end well?