Donald Trump was found guilty of a felony in his New York trial yesterday.
I wish I could say it was a surprise.
A friend of mine asked me as the jury got the case if I had to wager my house on the outcome what would I predict the result to be.
That could only mean one answer considering the judge that was on the case and the jury was selected from a poll that voted 86% against him in 2020.
There is simply no way that Trump could get a fair trial in that Manhattan court room.
If justice was to be served, the case should have been tried in a New York county in which the 2020 vote was close to 50-50.
I wrote an earlier blog post just as the trial was beginning, "This Is Justice?" on the absurdity of the case to begin with. One fact I was not aware of at that time was that the "business record" that was alleged falsified in this case was actually an expenditure from a personal revocable trust of Trump's. Since when is a personal trust a business anyway?
However, now that the verdict is in what comes next?
The Democrats got what they wanted out of this.
They wanted to be able to refer to Trump as a convicted felon for the next seven months leading up to the election.
They do not care if the case is reversed on appeal which seems likely if you listen to any number of legal experts. The trial was riddled with errors that were prejudicial to Trump.
The Democrats only want the talking points and hope that the conviction can keep Trump distracted and off the campaign trail.
The statement of the Biden campaign immediately after the verdict tells you all you need to know about the Democrat campaign strategy in all of this.
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| Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-campaign-reacts-trump-criminal-trial-verdict?intcmp=tw_fnc |
Note the words and themes that I have highlighted in that statement referring to Trump.
Convicted felon.
Threat to our democracy.
Unhinged.
Dictator.
Our Constitution will be terminated.
Chaos.
Political violence.
Of course, the problem with all of this is that Trump was already in office for four years.
The Democrats said the same things in 2016.
Was Trump a threat to democracy in his first term?
Was he a dictator?
Was our Constitution terminated?
Granted, there was a share of chaos and political violence but most of that was caused by the Democrats and the phony Russian collusion narrative, two impeachment efforts and the BLM and Antifa riots.
For those who want to point to January 6, that was in the last two weeks of his term. If Trump had been reelected with the same margins Biden had, the only political violence would have been from the leftists.
You will hear the words above over and over again during the campaign.
Biden does not have any tangible accomplishments to run on.
He still has not articulated any vision or concrete policy positions for a second term that are designed to improve the lives of everyday Americans.
This is the campaign strategy. There isn't anything else for Biden to run on.
A former President of the United States and current leading contender for the 2024 election convicted in a rigged, slanted criminal trial seven months before the election?
This is the United States of America?
What comes next?
Trump will clearly appeal but clearing his name might take years.
Will Trump be jailed even if he appeals?
Will the judge place Trump under house arrest so he cannot campaign?
Will the judge put Trump under probation so that he is subject to the court's rules---travel restrictions, drug testing and other controls?
Is the campaign of the leader in the 2024 Presidential race right now going to be subject to the control of a biased New York judge and an anonymous probation officer?
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
We are truly in uncharted territory.
Of course, the New York lower court verdict might be in but the final verdict will be rendered in November.
Will this verdict have any significant effect on Trump vs. Biden when all is said and done?
An NPR/Marist poll done last week found that most opinions about the Trump trial were already baked in and would not have an effect on the race.
15% of all voters said that if Trump was found guilty they would be more likely to vote for him and 17% said they would be less likely to support him. 67% said it would make no difference.
However, among Independents, it appears the conviction might actually be slightly beneficial to Trump.
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| Source: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202405301406.pdf |
My expectation is that the primary benefit to Trump of the verdict will be that this will further motivate his base.
Reports were already coming in shortly after the verdict was announced that Trump's campaign fund and the RNC website had crashed from incoming volume.
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| Source: https://redstate.com/jeffc/2024/05/30/breaking-trump-donation-page-crashes-after-hush-money-verdict-n2174874#google_vignette |
It remains to be seen how the verdict will play into the decision process of the important swing voters.
Do they recoil at the thought of a "convicted felon" as President?
Or do they see what has happened to Trump to be the real threat to democracy and an attempt to undermine the Constitution?
If this can be done to a billionaire businessman, former President and leading contender for another term, who says it cannot be done to anyone?
What is most troubling is what this trial portends for the future as it relates to the rule of law and as a precedent for political rivalries and disputes.
If Trump wins after all that he has been subjected to in this lawfare onslaught, it would be hard to blame him for not seeking a little revenge and retribution.
This by itself has to terrify the Democrats as to what they may have unleashed.
This verdict makes them even more dangerous in what they might be willing to do in this campaign to protect themselves.
It reminds of the plot line of the movie Oppenheimer.
Dr. Oppenheimer spent the entire World War II years working to build an atomic bomb to defeat Germany and Japan. However, once the weapon was unleashed on the world, he spent the rest of his life working for nuclear disarmament.
The Trump verdict has taken us to a place where this is no longer about politics.
This has become much, much bigger than that due to what the Democrats have unleashed.
Have they sown the seeds of Civil War?
I know those are big words but the stakes were just multiplied many times over yesterday.
What will the FINAL VERDICT on all this really be?
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