It used to be be the case that the death penalty was carried out for convicted criminals with an electric chair.
We may soon be at the point that death to our economy and way of life will be due to lack of electricity.
Late last month the energy ministers of the G7 countries (United States, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Italy, Japan) agreed to shut down all coal-fired electric generating plants within a decade.
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| Source: https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/g7-agrees-to-shut-down-coal-plants-by-2035-u-k-minister-says-in-climate-breakthrough-1.6865997 |
Ministers from the Group of Seven nations have agreed to shut down all their coal plants by 2035 at the latest, a U.K. minister said on Monday, in a climate policy breakthrough that could influence other countries to do the same.
16% of electricity in the United States today is generated by coal.
In Germany, it is 27%.
It is 32% in Japan
These are the three largest economic powers in the G7.
Bear in mind that the G7 is saying that they are going to close all coal-fired electric generation capacity at the same time that demands for electricity are increasing dramatically due to electric vehicle mandates, data centers, artificial intelligence, and even crypto mining.
As an example, world electricity demand for just the last three of these is expected to double between 2022-2026.
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| Source: https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1791348038100816049 |
The latest projections are that electricity demand over the next decade is going to grow at 3 times the rate at which it grew over the last decade. That would be about a 10% increase in demand in 10 years.
This chart provides perspective on the sources of current world electricity production by source.
Coal remains the largest single source and fossil fuels make up over 60% of the mix with nuclear powering another 10% of the total.
How do you increase the number of things plugged into the electric gird while decreasing the energy sources that can be used to power the grid?
By contrast to the G7, China uses coal for 61% of its electric generating power and India is at 75%.
They are both adding coal generating capacity while the G7 is taking them offline.
This is a headline from earlier this year about China's current efforts to build more coal-fired power plants.
China has 300 coal-fired plants either under construction, permitted or awaiting permits.
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China currently has more than 300 coal-fired plants that are either under construction, permitted, or awaiting permitting. If all 300 plants are constructed, China’s inventory of coal-fired power plants will increase by more than 25%.
If there is one absolute truth in the world today it is that you cannot have economic growth and prosperity for your citizenry without accessible, affordable energy.
There is no such thing as a low-energy, rich country.
Simple math suggests that you cannot close down 16% of your generating capacity in the United States over the next decade while your demand is increasing by 10% without a significant increase in new sources of power.
As I wrote in a previous blog post, "Where Will The Power Come From?", current energy projects under construction will only increase electricity supply by 5%. Those currently being planned might add another 5%.
If it is this bad in the United States you can only imagine what Germany and Japan are facing in getting enough electricity in the future with their higher dependency on coal.
For example, Germany used to get 30% of its electricity from nuclear. It is now 0%.
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| Source: https://x.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1789706917222158699 |
Coal is now at 27% and they have committed to get that to 0% in a decade.
Germany can also no longer count on a reliable supply of natural gas from Russia.
Germany is already relying on wind for abut 40% of its needs. They are going to need to hope the wind blows a lot more and they can ramp up other renewables or those Mercedes, BMW, Siemens and ThyssenKrupp factories will be difficult to operate with no power.
In Japan, renewables only generate about 20% of power needs and nuclear is at 6% today. Japan relies almost exclusively on imported coal, oil and liquid natural gas for its energy needs. Japan appears to be in a tougher spot than Germany if it is going to turn its back on fossil fuels.
In effect, the G7 is implementing the death penalty on themselves.
How can China not be laughing all the way to the bank at the idiocy of their economic competitors who are content in committing national suicide?
In addition, while we are talking about economic suicide and the death penalty. consider the following announcement from the Biden administration this week.
Biden's Energy Department is releasing all 1 million barrels (42 million gallons of gasoline) in the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve to help keep gasoline prices in the Northeast low this summer.
The supply reserve was established in 2014 after Hurricane Sandy disrupted gasoline supplies in the Northeast after the storm
The Biden administration supported legislation earlier this year that established that the Northeast Supply Reserve should be shut down because it was too expensive to store refined fuels compared to crude oil.
What happens if another hurricane disrupts supplies in the Northeast?
The Biden administration is not bashful about stating why they are releasing the reserves now.
They want to help put a lid on gas prices in the Northeast this summer.
"The Biden-Harris Administration is laser focused on lowering prices at the pump for American families, especially as drivers hit the road for summer driving season,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm. “By strategically releasing this reserve in between Memorial Day and July 4th, we are ensuring sufficient supply flows to the tri-state and northeast at a time hardworking Americans need it the most.”
How worried are they about those blue states in the Northeast abandoning Biden this November?
Taking down this reserve of gasoline in the Northeast would not be so bad but for how much Biden drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to gain political points two years ago as oil prices surged.
Biden raided the SPR for almost 300 million barrels of oil from what was in the reserve when he took office.
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| Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W |
Biden promised he would quickly restore the reserve two years ago.
Not much progress is being made in filling it back up as this chart shows.
The SPR is now about where it was 40 years ago.
The list of risks to disruption in our oil supplies is long
Hurricanes.
Russia/Ukraine War.
Israel/Hamas War.
Regime change in Iran.
Houthis disrupting ship traffic in the Suez canal.
Biden threatening to arrest oil executives for drilling for oil.
However, our SPR and gasoline reserves are being used for political points.
Another example where we are courting economic suicide.
Death by a thousand cuts---most of which are self-inflicted.
If you recall, Trump wanted to fill up the petroleum reserve at something like $20/bbl but the democrats wouldn’t let him do it. What a great move that would’ve been.
ReplyDeleteI do recall. They did not want to help the oil companies. Even worse, they also did not want to help the American people.
ReplyDelete