Another edition of Polling Potpourri as we are just over five months to the 2024 general election.
Polls are not always completely accurate. However, they are generally good barometers to discern major trends.
I am highlighting a mixture of data points in various polls I have seen lately that might provide some perspective on what is currently on the minds of American voters.
The most recent FiveThirtyEight polling average (which averages all recent polls) has Trump with a 1.4 point advantage over Biden.
However, to put this number in context it is useful to compare this to 2020 numbers.
At this time in 2020 (May, 2020) Biden was +6.0 over Trump.
The final poll average was Biden +8.4 right before Election Day.
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| Source: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1792737127421128775 |
Biden won the final popular vote total in 2020 by 4.4 points ( Biden 51.3%, Trump 46.9%).
However, just 44,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin separated the two which would have resulted in an electoral college tie between the two despite the popular vote advantage that Biden had.
This is why a national popular vote poll is somewhat misleading in assessing the race.
First, Biden should naturally lead in these polls because he is likely to build a significant vote margin in deep blue states with large populations such as California and New York.
Second, as the polling showed in 2020 (and 2016), the Trump vote seems to be undercounted in many polls.
Biden's final popular vote margin in 2020 was 4 points lower than the final poll average.
In 2016, the final polls also overstated support for the Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton.
Keep this in mind as you view national polls.
For example, the FiveThirtyEight poll average right now would project to a 312-226 electoral college margin for Trump.
He is projected to win every swing state although the margins are far from comfortable for Trump.
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| Source: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1792737127421128775 |
If that electoral vote result were to occur I think that most would consider it a landslide.
Harvard/Harris was out with a very extensive poll this week that took a deep dive on a number of issues that could have an affect on voter preferences in the 2024 race.
It has Trump +6 in a two-way race with Biden and +5 with RFK,Jr on the ballot.
You get a better sense of what is driving these results when you are look deeper into the poll results.
Biden's overall net approval is -10.
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| Source:https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HHP_May2024_KeyResults.pdf |
What is particularly interesting in this data are some of the demographic breakdowns.
Biden is -7 with age 18-24 voters.
He is -8 with women.
Biden is -26 with Asians.
He is -22 with Independents.
These are all groups he won in 2020 by DOUBLE DIGITS.
Even more interesting is how voters view Donald Trump's presidency with the benefit of hindsight.
55% of voters approve of the job Trump did as President compared to 43% who disapprove.
That is a overall net approval of +12 for Trump compared to -10 for Biden.
Is it any wonder that the top line results show Trump leading?
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| Source: https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HHP_May2024_KeyResults.pdf |
Harvard/Harris also polled voters on the favorability of a number of major political figures. On this question, they also added Elon Musk and Hunter Biden.
In fact, Musk had the highest favorability score of any of those polled at +13.
Tim Scott and RFK, Jr are at +10.
Donald Trump had a net favorability score of +4.
Biden scored a -10.
However, his son Hunter is -34.
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| Source: https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HHP_May2024_KeyResults.pdf |
Interestingly, there was not one Democrat or leftist that had a positive net favorability score of the names polled.
Kamala Harris -8
Hillary Clinton. -8
Chuck Schumer. -12
AOC -15
Rashid Tlaib -18
Ilhan Omar. -22
On the other hand, there were a number of Republicans besides Trump and Scott that had net favorable scores.
Ron DeSantis +6
Mike Johnson +6
Vivek Ramaswamy. +6
Doug Burgum +5
Marco Rubio +3
Nikki Haley +3
One of the more difficult issues Biden is trying to navigate is the Israel/Hamas war where he seems to be attempting to play both sides of the fence.
He has a dismal 36% approval score on the issue.
By comparison, his approval on the economy is 43%, on inflation it is 41% and 40% on immigration.
A lot of media attention has gone to the college protests against Israel but the Harvard/Harris Poll shows that 79% of all voters favor Israel in the war.
69% also believe that Israel is trying to avoid civilian casualties which counters the "genocide" narrative that college students like to repeat.
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| Source: https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HHP_May2024_KeyResults.pdf |
This polling shows what a difficult task Biden has in trying to placate the progressive younger voters that he needs so badly to win in November compared to overwhelming support for Israel with all voters.
In fact, if you look at all 18-24 voters, 57% actually support Israel over Hamas in the war.
However, the poll reveals one of the largest generational divides you will ever see on an issue when you compare support for Israel between the 18-24 demographic and age 65+ voters.
57% of 18-24 voters support Israel but in the age 65+ group it is 93!
Do you need to see any more to know that what students are taught in school has changed a lot in the last several decades?
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released yesterday has Biden's approval of his job performance as President at 36%--the lowest it has been in two years. That was when inflation was running at about 9% and national gas prices were averaging almost $5 per gallon.
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| Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens-approval-rating-falls-lowest-level-nearly-two-years-reutersipsos-poll-2024-05-21/ |
There is not a lot of good news in the polling for Joe Biden right now.
Given the poll results that continue to show that Biden is in trouble, I still believe there is a decent chance he will be replaced on the ticket before November.
In fact, former Oho GOP Governor John Kasich said the same thing on MSNBC last week. Kasich is a staunch anti-Trump guy who has already endorsed Biden in 2024.
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| Source: https://www.foxnews.com/media/anti-trump-kasich-stuns-msnbc-host-saying-real-possibility-biden-wont-be-candidate |
Former Republican governor of Ohio and MSNBC political analyst John Kasich stunned host José Díaz-Balart on Friday by speculating that President Biden may not end up being the Democratic Party presidential nominee.
Kasich cited polling data, people’s feelings on the economy, the president’s poor public speaking events and his fear over upcoming presidential debates to say there’s a strong chance that the party will choose someone else to run against former President Trump.
I also found the debate proposal that Biden made to Trump in the last week to be very interesting in that regard.
Biden was only willing to debate in June (before the conventions) and in early September (two months before Election Day).
These dates tell me that the Biden team did not want any debate close to the election from which there could be no recovery from a bad debate performance.
The June debate also suggests that a bad performance by Biden could result in calls to have him step aside and be replaced at the Democratic convention in August
What other reason could there be to have a debate beforer the conventions and more than four months before the election?
The September debate also provides an exit ramp in that pulling the plug on Biden at that early date provides time to replace him before ballots are printed and early voting begins.
Early voting begins as early as September 20 in several states.
In fact, it would not surprise me that Democrat party insiders were already working to persuade Biden to step aside and he resisted. The early dates of the debates might have been established as a compromise for Biden to prove to the insiders that he could hold his own against Trump.
Biden might have told them that if he couldn't handle the debates, he would step aside and the party could insert their favored candidate.
However, if he proved he could go toe to toe with Trump, they would shut up and leave him alone.
Stay tuned.
It is still a long way to November with many twist and turns ahead.
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