A Debate For The Aged

 Tomorrow night's Presidential election debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden could go down as a "Debate For The Ages".

It involves what is effectively two incumbents squaring off in a debate that is being held months earlier than usual. 

I would expect there would be a large tv audience as this is a rare opportunity to see both candidates on the same stage interacting with each other.

This debate is also unusual in that even though it is a CNN event with their moderators, it will be televised on a number of tv networks beyond CNN as it is being made available as a public service by the network. 

As a result, Fox News, ABC News, CBS News, NBC News and NewsNation are all planning to air the CNN debate on their networks.

Variety reports that the financial incentive for the networks picking up the CNN feed involves the ability to sell two planned three-and-a-half minute commercial breaks with their own ads, not to mention their own pre- and post-event programming,

This much tv coverage on that many networks should give the debate a lot of viewer interest.

That is particularly important for both sides as they attempt to persuade undecided voters who are also likely to be those who don't follow politics as closely as committed Democrats and Republicans. The debate is a unique opportunity to capture their interest as few other events will during the campaign.

Debates usually take place no earlier than late September. Most are scheduled for October.

This debate is taking place before either candidate has even been officially nominated.

It also might very well be the sole debate between Biden and Trump (more on that below).

However, it will most likely be remembered as "A Debate For The Aged" as it involves the two oldest candidates to ever be on the Presidential ballot.

Trump just turned 78 this month and Biden will be 82 in November.

Credit: https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/biden-trump-debate-cnn-tv-news-scramble-1236044525/

It also involves two candidates neither of which have appeared on a debate stage for nearly four years.

Neither candidate participated in primary debates. Biden did not because he was an incumbent that was not seriously challenged by any Democrat. Trump simply refused to debate since he had a commanding lead in the polls from the beginning. He saw no upside in debating. 

This is highly unusual in the modern era where candidates must endure multiple debates while running for their party's nomination.

For example, in 2016, Donald Trump participated in 12 primary debates.

Joe Biden took part in 11 primary debates in 2020 despite the schedule being curtailed by Covid.

I have to believe that neither candidate is going to be at the top of their game due to the fact that they have not been in the arena and are not battle tested recently.

This might pose more of a problem for Trump in that expectations are going to be very low for Biden entering the debate due to his frequent stumbles and mumbles in public appearances.

Biden has a very low bar to clear in this debate due to those expectations.

However, it is hard to imagine anyone who is less prepared to be standing behind a podium for an hour and a half devoid of a teleprompter and note cards than Joe Biden.

Any public speaking appearance he has done in the last three years have been heavily scripted and he has rarely been placed in a situation where he has had to make extemporaneous remarks.

Over most of the past four years Biden has almost never been put in a position where he has had to think on his feet and react to unscripted questions or scrutiny.

He has been protected by his staff to the extent he often tells reporters "they will not allow me to answer questions" pointing to the staff.

He is the President of the United States!. He can't answer a question if he wants to? Who is really in charge?

Of course, I am assuming that the CNN moderators are going to play in straight and not slant the tone or the questions to the benefit of Biden. That is a distainct possibility considering the known bias that both Jake Tapper and Dana Bash have had for Trump in the past.

I would hope that CNN has not given the questions to Biden's team in advance.

At one time it would have been unthinkable for a "journalist" to do anything like that.

However, we know that CNN"s Donna Brazille fed debate questions to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Source: https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donna-brazile-wikileaks-fallout-230553

Considering the animus that those at CNN have for Trump it is a legitimate concern.

Although Trump has not done any debates recently, he is constantly doing rallies and long media interviews that are largely unscripted. He can talk at length on a number of issues without notes.

Will Biden be able to rise to the occasion with so much at stake?

His handlers clearly want him to appear vigorous and in command of the issues.

Trump's handlers have to be hoping that he stays disciplined in his message and measured in his comportment during the night. 

When this debate was scheduled I surmised that the early date before the convention made me believe that the debate is a test of Biden's abilities.

This is what I wrote about the debate shortly after it was first proposed.

Biden was only willing to debate in June (before the conventions) and in early September (two months before Election Day).

These dates tell me that the Biden team did not want any debate close to the election from which there could be no recovery from a bad debate performance.

The June debate also suggests that a bad performance by Biden could result in calls to have him step aside and be replaced at the Democratic convention in August

What other reason could there be to have a debate beforer the conventions and more than four months before the election?

The September debate also provides an exit ramp in that pulling the plug on Biden at that early date  provides time to replace him before ballots are printed and early voting begins.

Early voting begins as early as September 20 in several states. 

In fact, it would not surprise me that Democrat party insiders were already working to persuade Biden to step aside and he resisted. The early dates of the debates might have been established as a compromise for Biden to prove to the insiders that he could hold his own against Trump. 

Biden might have told them that if he couldn't handle the debates, he would step aside and the party could insert their favored candidate.

However, if he proved he could go toe to toe with Trump, they would shut up and leave him alone.

This debate may determine whether Biden stays on the ballot this year.

In any event, even though a second debate has been proposed for early September, I don't think we will see Trump and Biden on the same debate stage again.

I am of the belief that there will likely only be one "Debate For The Aged".

Why do I say that?

Let's consider several possibilities.

1. Biden does very poorly at the debate. This leads to calls by Democrats for him to be replaced. 

    He is replaced by another candidate (Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton etc).

    There is no second debate with Trump and Biden.

2. Biden gives a passable debate performance and there are no calls to replace him on the ballot.

    If Biden performs at any level that is acceptable his team will simply not want to risk a second debate.

    There is no second debate with Trump and Biden.

3. Biden gives a marginal debate performance that is not enough to force him out of the race.

    However, Trump is the clear winner in the debate.

    There is no second debate as Trump has no motivation to do another debate if he leads in the polls. 

The odds suggest that one of these scenarios comes true.

Pay close attention on Thursday night because this might be both a debate for the aged and the ages at the same time.

This is not a debate you want to watch at party or in a bar. 

This is a debate that you want to watch with close attention as you will likely not have a second chance at seeing these two together on the same stage again.

And what comes from it may be quite consequential in determining the arc of this Presidential race and America's future.