A big question in the wake of Donald Trump's conviction in the New York criminal trial last month was how this would play out in the polls and in the election in November.
This is what I wrote right after the verdict was rendered and the Democrats and mainstream media started referring to Trump as "a convicted felon".
It remains to be seen how the verdict will play into the decision process of the important swing voters.
Do they recoil at the thought of a "convicted felon" as President?
Or do they see what has happened to Trump to be the real threat to democracy and an attempt to undermine the Constitution?
Polling since the trial seems to indicate that the verdict in the New York court has had no discernible effect on the arc of the Presidential race.
A month ago, on May 19, Trump had a 1.1% advantage in the RealClearPolitics.com poll average.
Trump's advantage today is at +0.8%.
Comparing the numbers from before and after the verdict tells the same story in looking at specific polling firms.
NPR/PBS/Marist had Biden +2 in mid-May. Its most recent poll has the race tied.
Yahoo News had the race tied in mid-May. It now has Biden +2.
Reuters/Ipsos had the race tied in mid-May. It now has Trump +2.
Any changes appear to be just noise in the numbers rather than any fundamental shifts in the views of the electorate involving Donald Trump.
Trump's margin of +0.8% shows this is a very tight race right now.
However, it is also important to put that number in context with the 2016 and 2020 elections which also were exceedingly tight when the final results were in.
On the same date in 2016, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by 5.8 pants.
In 2020, Trump trailed Joe Biden in June by 8.8 points.
Trump's narrow margin in the popular vote polling average suggests that Trump is in a much better place in the all important electoral college vote right now than he was in 2016 or 2020.
In fact, the RealClearPolitics.com poll average shows Trump leading in every key battleground state right now.
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| Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/nevada/trump-vs-biden |
More significantly, polls in several states that are not considered Battleground states are starting to look competitive for Trump.
Consider Virginia, which Biden won by 10 points in 2020. A recent poll by Fox News shows Trump and Biden tied in Virginia after the New York verdict.
In Minnesota, Trump's internal pollster shows that Trump is actually leading Biden in that state.
Biden won Minnesota by 7 points in 2020.
A poll in Iowa by a highly respected pollster in that state has Trump +18.
Trump won Iowa by 8 points in 2020.
What do I find interesting in those three state polls?
Notice that in each of them there has been about a 10 point swing toward Trump between the 2020 popular vote in each state and current polling.
What does it take to get a 10 point margin swing in an election?
The most direct way to get that result is to have 5% of voters who supported a candidate switch their vote.
That takes 5% away from one candidate and adds 5% to other candidate amounting to a 10% total margin shift.
Is it unreasonable to believe that 1 out of 20 of those who voted for Biden last time are willing to shift their vote to Trump based on the results of the last 3 and 1/2 years?
What groups do the polls show that Biden is most vulnerable in losing voters who supported him the last time?
Biden is showing weakness in a number of groups that have reliably voted Democrat for along time.
Young voters, Blacks, Women and Hispanics are seeing shifts in the polls away from Biden.
One of the more interesting takes I have seen on these shifts came from CNN data guru Harry Enten who recently provided an analysis comparing polling involving Black voters at this time in 2020 compared to today.
These are the numbers with Black voters that astounded the CNN data guru.
Biden has lost 16 points while Trump has picked up 14 points among Black voters overall according to Enten.
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| Link: https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1802704780025794662 |
Enten looked deeper into the data to see where the erosion of Biden's support was coming from within the African American community.
It is most pronounced among young voters under the age of 50.
Biden had an 80 point margin over Trump with Black voters under age 50 in 2020. Recent polling shows it to be down to just 37 points among these younger voters today.
That can only be described as a seismic shift in support.
Will these voters come back to the Democrats by November?
If not, it is hard to see how Joe Biden can win.
It is polling like this that raises the question in my mind as to whether the Democrats can afford to keep Biden on the ticket.
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| Link: https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1802704780025794662 |
I also continue to be astounded by the polling on the question of whether voters support a policy that would have the U.S. government start a new national program to deport all undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. illegally.
62% of all registered voters in a CBS poll taken between June 5-7 say they are favor of deporting all undocumented immigrants.
That includes 53% support with HISPANICS and 38% among self-identified Democrats.
There is no issue that draws a sharper contrast in policy views between Trump and Biden it is what the United States should be.doing about illegal immigration.
It is surprising that such a significant majority of registered voters are in agreement on what would be considered as about as a hard line position as you could get on this issue.
I think it shows the depth of frustration and concern that voters have about the border invasion under Biden.
If voters continue to hold the views reflected in this poll, Donald Trump is in a very strong position on this issue and in the election. Immigration continues to be a top 3 issue for many voters.
The next major item on the election schedule that could impact the race is the Trump-Biden debate scheduled for June 27.
After that, the sentencing of Trump scheduled for July 11 (four days before the start of the GOP convention) will draw a lot of voter attention.
Will the Judge in that case be so bold as to order Trump incarcerated, placed under house arrest or put under strict probationary rules that limit his travel while he is running for President of the United States?
How will that play with the American voters?
There are plenty of twists and turns ahead on the road to November.
Polls make for good conversation and blog content but only one poll counts in the end---that one is still more than four months away.
Stay tuned and stay in touch through BeeLine.
Great data as usual
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