Born in the U.S.A.

It is time to take a little break from politics and spend some time on another of my favorite topics-demographics.

The federal government recently released its preliminary National Vital Statistics Report on Births for 2011.

I like to keep track of birth rate data as I am always interested in who we have coming up behind us to pay the enormous federal debt we are leaving to future generations.

The bad news is that as our federal debt has grown by over $5 trillion over the last four years, the number of future taxpayers is also declining.  Births in the United States have declined in each of the last four years.  2011 births were 3,953,593.  This marks two consecutive years that births have been below 4 million.  The last time that the birth rate in the U.S was this low was in 1999.

This is most likely a function of two factors- the economy and the effects of the "Baby Dearth"years from 1972-1979 in which births in each year did not exceed 3.5 million.  The females in this cohort have been in prime child bearing years recently and lower birth rates should be expected as a result.

The chart below shows births from 1950 through 2011.  This is a chart that I have been tracking since the early 1990's.  I actually consider the 1965-1986 period to represent the entire "Baby Dearth" period.   On either side of the "Baby Dearth" we have the "Baby Boom" (1946-1965) and the "Baby Boomlet" (1986-2008?).  

I have always looked at the birth cohort of 1965-1986 to be particularly well positioned for career prospects in that they are in a great position to be able to serve both a large group of individuals older than themselves (health care, investments, etc) as well as a large population of younger individuals (education, consumer goods etc).  It is a position that is literally in the middle of two giant demographic waves unlike anything we have ever seen before.  

A few interesting factoids from the Report on 2011 Births.

• The general fertility rate (63.2 per 1,000 women age 15-44) was the lowest rate ever reported for the United States.
• The birth rate for women aged 20-24 (85.3 per 1,000 women) was the lowest ever.
• The birth rate foe teenagers aged 15-19 fell to a historic low (31.3 per 1,000).  This is a decline of 49% since 1991.
• Age 25-29 women have the highest birth rate (107.2).  Age 30-34 women have a higher birth rate than age 20-24 (96.5)
• The birth rates for women from 35-39 and 40-44 were both higher in 2011 than 2010.  Births to women age 40-44 was the highest (10.2 per 1,000) since 1967.
• 41% of all births were to unmarried women.  29% of children born to non-Hispanic Whites were to unmarried mothers.  For blacks, 72% of births were to single mothers.  This number is 53% for Hispanics and only 17% for Asians.
• Only 18% of the nonmarital births were to teenagers, the lowest percentage ever recorded.  In 1970, teenagers accounted for 50 percent of births to unmarried women.
• Of the 3.9 million babies born, 40% were first born, 31% second born, 16% third born and 12% were the fourth child or more for the mother.