Sunday, March 13, 2016

A Vote for Rubio or Kasich Is A Vote for Chaos

More people from Florida (1st) and Ohio (2nd) read BeeLine than from any other states.

Here is graphic from Google Analytics that shows the geographic readership of my blog over the last 30 days. The darker the color, the more reader views.

Illinois (5th) and North Carolina (7th) are also in the top 7 states for readership.

Interestingly, all four of these states have GOP primaries on Tuesday.

The Republican nomination for President could very likely be decided that day in those states. At this time, there are only two candidates that can win the nomination at the ballot box---Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

Yes, Marco Rubio and John Kasich remain in the race. However, the only result that can come from a vote for either of these gentlemen on Tuesday is a vote for chaos.

This is a message for those of you who live in those states that will vote this Tuesday.

You may like John Kasich. You may think he has been a good Governor. You may even think he could be a great President.

The same is true for Marco Rubio. You may think he is an attractive, articulate young man. You may think he has a bright future ahead for himself. You may even think he could be a great President.

It does not matter.

Neither Kasich or Rubio has any path to the nomination through the ballot box this year. No way. No how.

Even if John Kasich wins the Ohio Republican Primary onTuesday, he would need 90% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination. Simply impossible!

Likewise for Marco Rubio. Even if he wins the Florida Republican Primary, he would need to win 79% of the remaining delegates. Clearly beyond improbable!

It is not going to happen for either of them.

What will happen if you vote for John Kasich or Marco Rubio?

You will either make Donald Trump the Republican nominee or your vote will lead to a contested or brokered GOP Convention in Cleveland.

It is that simple. Those are the only two outcomes.

Split votes between three or four candidates benefit Trump, especially in winner-take-all states like Florida and Ohio. Trump can get as little as 26% of the vote in those two states on Tuesday and walk away with 165 delegates. That alone would provide him with more than 20% of the remaining delegates he needs for the nomination at this time.

On the other hand, if Trump loses in Ohio and Florida, even though he would still be the leader, he would need 63% of the remaining delegates to gain a majority of delegates. That is possible, but unlikely. A contested convention would be the most likely result.

Either outcome will result in chaos for the Republican Party and greatly enhance the prospects of another four years of a Democrat in the White House.

Why do I say that? I had two conversations this week with very, very conservative Republican women who both told me that they would vote for Hillary over Trump in the general election if it came to that. How does Trump beat Hillary Clinton if you have this type of chaos within the Republican Party's core voters?

Trump's unfavorable rating average is 64.4% in the five most recent national polls that have been taken. His net favorability is -34%! Compare that to President Obama. His unfavorable rating is 47% and his net favorability is only -1%!

Even within the Republican Party primary and caucus elections thus far, Trump has not once gained more than 50% of the votes cast.

Of course, you can only imagine the chaos at the convention if Trump has the most delegates (but lacks a majority) and loses the nomination. It promises to be less than pretty. Have you seen his rallies? Cruz is the only one remaining who can prevent that from occurring at the ballot box.

In addition to the chaos created, a vote for Rubio or Kasich will also mean you wasted your vote and your chance to change the arc of this Presidential race.

The time has long since passed where it is realistic that Kasich or Rubio could gain the nomination. In normal times, their money and support would have long ago dried up. I guess we know by now we are not living in normal times.

24 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico have held primaries or caucuses thus far. Kasich has not won one of them.

1,037 delegates have been selected. Kasich has 63.

Rubio has won one state (Minnesota), the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. He only has 163 of the 1,237 necessary.

So why are Kasich and Rubio still in the race?

I cannot pretend to answer that question. Perhaps Kasich and Rubio can provide an explanation in the face of the undeniable facts I have outlined above. My guess is that the Republican Establishment is encouraging and funding their efforts to attempt to get to a brokered convention in a desperate attempt to keep both Trump and Cruz from the nomination.

I do know where a vote for Kasich or Rubio leads on Tuesday. It is simple arithmetic.

None of it is good if you would rather not see Donald Trump as the Republican nominee for President. None of it is good if you would like to see the GOP win the White House in 2016.

In exit polls in Michigan, voters indicated that in a head-to-head match between Trump and Cruz, they favored Cruz 46%-37%. By the way, 37% is the percentage of votes that Trump received in the 4-way race in Michigan last week. In other words, Cruz would have picked up all of the non-Trump votes with the exception of 7% who stated that they would stay home when faced with that choice.

What does this mean to GOP voters on Tuesday?

If you are thinking about voting for Kasich or Rubio, think again.

It is a vote for chaos. Either with a Trump candidacy or with a chaotic convention that Kasich or Rubio has no hope of winning in the end but could cause irreparable damage to the GOP.

There is only one choice left if you want to stop Donald Trump or avoid chaos in Cleveland.

That is a vote for Ted Cruz. That is your only hope if you want to change the tone and tenor of this race when there is still time. On Wednesday, it may be too late.

Remember, a vote for Kasich or Rubio is a vote for chaos.

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