Donald Trump's political future is on the line tonight. Speaking more broadly, his entire business brand may also be on the line. There probably has never been an event that has been potentially more consequential for a Presidential candidate than what will transpire tonight for Trump.
Given what he had to do I wrote that it would not be an easy task for Trump to silence the fallout from the "hot mic" incident, pivoting to be on the offensive with Hillary while also not looking like a jerk for doing so.
It will not be easy. Trump needs to thread the needle to do it. However, it can be done. Ronald Reagan could have done it. I am sure Abraham Lincoln could have. Tonight we will see if Donald Trump can do it. If he can, he lives to fight another day. If he cannot, you will hear more calls for him to step down.
Trump was not perfect (that much ought to be clear to everyone by now). However, I thought he did extraordinarily well given the circumstances and the pressure he was under. He was vastly improved in every aspect of his debate performance compared to the first debate (remember that he never had to do a one-on-one debate during the GOP primaries). He proved to be a fast learner.
Trump achieved his principal goal of living another day. If not for the "hot mic" tape, I think he was good enough that he would probably have edged into the lead in most polls. As it is, he has dug himself a pretty good hole to dig out of and he has just 4 weeks to close the deal.
I think it is a certainty that the Clinton campaign and/or the media establishment has more waiting in the wings to dump on Trump. It remains more than coincidental that the "hot mic" tape of 11 years ago mysteriously was dropped by the media on the very day that WikiLeaks starting publishing emails from the Clinton campaign.
This is what Ted Cruz had to say about that on Twitter.
That is a good question. Of course, we know the answer. There is no one at NBC, the Washington Post, CBS, ABC, CNN or The New York Times that is a friend of Ted Cruz...or any other Republican for that matter.
The game is rigged.
And it is fixed against the American people. The media and establishment elite have determined who they want to be President of the United States. Needless to say, Donald Trump is their worst nightmare so they are going to do everything in their power to convince you of the same.
Consider the fact that Donald Trump starred in a highly-rated television program for NBC from 2004-2015. The "hot mic"incident was recorded as part of the syndicated tv show Access Hollywood that has been produced and distributed by an NBC-owned company since 2004.
How could NBC have the conscience to continue to employ Donald Trump as the star of one of its highly-rated shows if his behavior was so outrageous and horrific towards women?
One other point that is interesting in all of this is the double standard at work.
The best perspective of this is in looking at the case of Bill Clinton. However, in my lifetime you could point to John F. Kennedy, Bobby Kennedy, Teddy Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson as well.
Let's consider Bill Clinton in the White House with intern Monica Lewinsky.
Bill Clinton actually does it and he lies about it in a sworn deposition to the American people. It is brushed off as "It's just sex" by most of the media and his fellow Democrats.
Donald Trump just talks about it and he admits it. He is immediately considered "unfit".
There is a double standard in the press but the bigger double standard is how the respective political parties react in these situations.
Democrats almost universally stood strong behind Bill Clinton. They did not flinch or waver. Only five Democrats in the House voted to impeach Clinton. All 45 Democrats in the Senate voted Clinton "Not Guilty".
Democrats play to win at all costs. Values seem to matter very little.
Compare that to what we see some Republican officeholder doing right now.
Like it or not, Donald Trump is the nominee.
And it is a simple choice. You are either for Trump or you are for Hillary. One or the other is going to be President as things stand today.
A Republican who does not support or vote for Trump is effectively voting for Hillary even if they stay home.
I made clear early and often that I believed that there were better GOP candidates than Donald Trump. However, many others disagreed with me and made him the nominee. Yes, I could cry and complain about it and sit home and see another four years (or worse) like the last eight years. I could sit home and see the Supreme Court fundamentally changed for the next 40 years. I could sit home and see our borders overrun and the rule of law further undermined so that we don't even have a nation in 50 years. I won't do that.
I know one of the arguments that some #NeverTrumpers make is that Trump is too much of an authoritarian. Therefore, he makes them nervous. If that is your concern let me put your mind at ease.
The genius of our Founding Fathers involved putting together a document that addresses that very concern with three co-equal branches of government and well-designed checks and balances between all three. I have a lot of confidence our Constitution would work well if Trump was President, don't you? It is not as if Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell are in a love fest with Donald Trump. The GOP also has proven that they do not protect "their own" at all costs like the Democrats have done.
I have no such confidence in the system working as designed with Hillary and the Democrats in power. And Hillary has a pretty strong streak of authoritarianism in her as well. For example, last night at the debate when asked who she would appoint to the Supreme Court she made no mention of appointing a jurist who would defend and protect the Constitution. Instead, she said that she thought that "the current court has gone in the wrong direction." What direction is that? I think she clearly looking for justices to stray even further from the Constitution.
It has been said that a day can be a lifetime in politics. Donald Trump lived through several lifetimes over the last few days.
And we have 28 days to go. A lot can and could happen.
More media dumps on Trump? More Hillary emails?
An outside event like a terrorist act or natural disaster? Remember Sandy in 2012? Exit polls indicate that might have moved 3-4% from Romney to Obama. A switched vote is actually a double move. A 52%-48% lead for one candidate reverses. It becomes an 8% swing in the overall spread.
An outside event like a terrorist act or natural disaster? Remember Sandy in 2012? Exit polls indicate that might have moved 3-4% from Romney to Obama. A switched vote is actually a double move. A 52%-48% lead for one candidate reverses. It becomes an 8% swing in the overall spread.
And don't forget about Hillary's health. She remains one slip, twitch, hitch, itch or hiccup from bringing that issue back to the forefront. That is why I think she will try to stay out of the public eye as much as she can over the next month.
Only 4 weeks...or 28 lifetimes to go.
If you never believed that you could truly make silk out of a cow's ear, look at video below and enjoy.
The very best thing I saw come out of last night.
Very appropriate musical duet of Trump and Hillary singing the song "Time of My Life" made famous in the movie (very appropriately in this case) Dirty Dancing.
Click here if video above does not work on your browser.
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