The only thing I know for sure is that he has confounded political pundits, the political establishment and media elites time and time again.
He also has taken my opinions on him apart at the seams along the way. For example, this is what I wrote about the GOP primary election shortly after Trump got in the race back in July, 2015.
There is a substantial part of the electorate that are fed up with Washington, politics as usual, and political correctness. They are tired of our borders being overrun with illegal immigration while nothing is done by either the Republicans or Democrats. They are tired of the United States being the world's policeman and getting spit in the face. They are tired of seeing every trade agreement resulting in job losses for Americans. They are tired of seeing Islamic extremism being called workplace violence or the acts of lost souls. They are tired of lousy laws and terrible treaties being sold as "good as we can get."
What will be most interesting to me is whether the message survives even if the messenger (Trump) does not.
And there is no question in my mind that the messenger (Trump) in this case will not be delivering an Inaugural Address on January 20, 2017.
I made that prediction based on polling at the time that indicated 62% of voters stated that they would definitely not vote for Trump.
That same poll said that 45% would definitely not vote for Hillary Clinton.
The LA Times poll shows the race today in an absolute dead heat with Trump at 44.8% to Clinton's 43.7%. Notice the trend since the beginning of the race and you will see that Hillary has struggled to ever exceed 45%. On the other hand, Trump has never been close to the 38% ceiling that should have existed based on people's attitudes toward Trump when his campaign began.
Other polls show that Clinton has a lead of from 2 to 12 points today with the RealClearPolitics.com average at Clinton +7 points.
Why the big difference? It almost all comes down to assumptions that are made by the pollsters on what the composition of the voters will be who will actually cast votes in this election. Will young voters and black voters turnout to vote like they did for Obama or stay home like they did in the mid-term elections in 2010 and 2014? How many traditional blue collar Democrats will vote for Trump? How many suburban Republican women will reject Trump and vote for Hillary? These are all critical questions in the assumptions made to weight the poll results.
I truly believe that there is a lot more volatility in this election than there has been traditionally. There are fewer people who are absolutely certain on who they will vote for. They see flaws in both candidates. Who knows what surprises or headlines might still affect the outcome? As a result, the last three weeks could produce more swings in the polls than we have seen in the last few Presidential elections.
I may ultimately be proven right on my prediction regarding Trump back in July, 2015. The way the electoral map is drawn right now, it is difficult to bet against the Democrat candidate when you start out with large states like California and New York in your column before the votes are even counted.
However, I have learned to not bet against Donald Trump. He has defied the odds week after week over the last year and a half. He fights to win. It is too soon to count him out. Too many people have counted him out and have been proven wrong.
For example, look at this history that Jack Posobiec, who is Special Projects Director for Citizens for Trump, put together to remind us of all of the things that the pundits said about Trump that would never happen.
One of the big items on that list was the argument that Trump would not be able to unify the majority of the GOP behind him.
However, if you look at the Rasmussen poll that came out today (Clinton up 43%-41%), Trump has the support of 74% of Republicans just slightly less than Clinton's 78% among Democrats. More interesting is the fact that Rasmussen finds that 16% of Democrats prefer Trump whereas only 10% of Republicans say they will vote for Hillary.
Make no mistake that Trump has an uphill climb. The Democrats know how to play hard ball politics. It is not made any easier for Trump when the entire media and elite political establishment is working against you at the same time.
However, #NeverTrump? That seems to be the riskiest bet of all when I consider everything this man has done up to now.
I have learned to never say never with Trump.
For a little added context see the Gallup poll for the 1980 election that had Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter and John Andersen on the ballot running as an Independent. I have written about this race before and some of the similarities with 2016 in that Reagan won the GOP nomination against the Republican establishment and was considered by many to be "unfit" to be President due to his previous life as an actor.
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| http://www.gallup.com/poll/2392/presidential-races-can-change-significantly-election-day-approaches.aspx |
At this time in the 1980 election Reagan trailed Carter by 8 points.
He won by 10 points in a landslide three weeks later.
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