I was wrong about America in 2012. And it hurt...a lot.
I did not understand it then and I still do not understand it today.
I did not support Barack Obama in 2008 but I fully understood why he won. I genuinely hoped that he could turn his uplifting words into action. It did not take long to see that "Hope and Change" was just a slick political slogan. By 2012 we could see that it nothing but words.
In fact, I wrote a blog in September, 2012 about how President Obama should really be called "President Opposite" as almost every everything he said he was going to do turned out to be exactly the opposite. It is worth the read even four years later. Nothing has changed. It is just much worse.
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| President Opposite Photo Credit: FreakingNews.com |
Those were the facts and yet the American people re-elected him against one of the most decent and honorable men who has even run for President.
As a result, I don't make election predictions anymore. I especially don't make predictions when you consider that the pollsters who do this for a living do not seem to have a clue.
For example, consider these two national tracking polls that came out this morning. They could not be further apart.
LA Times-Trump + 5.6%
ABC- Clinton + 5.0%
Of course, what really matters is the electoral college tally. However, state polls in the key battleground states also do not "predict" anything. All of these states are tied or well within the margin of error.
Florida
Ohio
North Carolina
Iowa
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Colorado
Nevada
New Hampshire
As I have written before, this election will be decided on turnout. Will the traditional Democratic constituencies--African-Americans, Millennials, Single Women---turnout like they did for Barack Obama? If they do, Hillary Clinton will win. If they don't, Donald Trump can close the history books on the Clintons and The White House. However, it remains to be seen whether the FBI investigation of the Clintons will open a completely new chapter to close the book once and for all.
While this election is difficult to predict it has also been a difficult one for voters to decide who to support. Both candidates are viewed skeptically by most voters. Voters do not believe Hillary is honest and trustworthy and they question Trump's temperament. I understand the angst when you believe you are choosing between the lesser of two evils.
Let me provide some perspective on that decision as I have assessed it myself.
Look deeper at the two candidate and assess their words and actions. It is the same thing I did when assessing President Obama's performance after his first term. His words sounded great, his actions did not come anywhere near his words. In fact, in most cases, his actions were the exact opposite of his words.
I have watched and assessed Hillary Clinton for over 30 years. Her actions belie her words. This woman is deeply corrupt. In Donald Trump words, she is "corrupt".
A few examples for younger readers who may not know her complete history.
- Hillary was a young attorney on the Congressional Committee investigating Watergate. The Chief Counsel of that committee said of Clinton, “She was a liar. She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality.”…"I would not — could not recommend her for any further positions.”
- Hillary turned a $1,000 investment into a $98,000 profit in one year (1978) trading commodity futures. She claims she did her own research. The evidence appears to show she had insider information from a major agricultural producer in Arkansas, Tyson Foods. The profit on these trades was more than the combined income of both Clintons that year from their regular jobs. Despite her enormous success, she never traded again. Why, if you were so successful, would you quit?
- On January 21, 2001, The Washington Post reported that the Clintons "left the White House yesterday with an unprecedented $190,027 worth of gifts received over the last eight years." Most of the items were furniture, furnishings, artwork and china that they moved to their newly purchased homes in Georgetown and Chappaqua, NY. Because of the story, the Clintons were ultimately forced to return $28,000 worth of furniture and they also agreed to pay for $86,000 in other "gifts" that had been given to them by individuals when they were in The White House.
- We all know about Hillary's private email server which Fox News has reported that the FBI is 99% certain was hacked by foreign intelligence services. Word now comes from New York Post reporting that Hillary routinely emailed classified materials to the maid at her Georgetown house while she was Secretary of State for her maid to print out. Her maid, Maria Santos, is a Filipino immigrant who I am not even sure is a naturalized American citizen.
On the other hand, Donald Trump has at times been crude, crass and anything but politically correct in his words. What about his actions? He has a lifetime record of results and success. His actions belie his words. He did not get where he is with bad temperament or by running rough shod over people. He did not succeed unilaterally. He had to agree to deals with people and get results. I think he understands people very well. How to incentivize them. How to motivate them. How to persuade them. And most importantly, how to negotiate with them.
If nothing else, Donald Trump is a master negotiator. The biggest thing that his words do for him is to establish expectations. In behavioral economics, they would be called "anchors". What is the value of anchoring? In negotiations, the first figure or demand named in a negotiation subtly shifts the other side's expectations of what it will have to pay or accept in a deal.
Business people and others don't think they are affected by anchors. They don't think they could be manipulated in that way. Margaret Neale, a professor at Stanford's Graduate School of Business, who is an expert in negotiating strategy, and who conduct executive seminars on negotiations for business leaders, disagrees. Here is what she says about "anchors" in William Poundstone's excellent book, "Priceless."
"We spend a lot of time talking to real folks making real decisions about the power of these anchors. They say it's not possible that I'm influenced by that; I've done a lot of things and I know. And I say you don't know."
Neale goes on to talk about the research that has been done that actually compares results with and without anchors.
"I can put Maggie in this situation without an anchor, and then I can put Maggie in that exact same situation with an anchor. And I can then compare the differences in her behavior, There are differences, and they are systematic, and they are powerful effects."
Will Donald Trump actually build the wall and make Mexico pay? I don't know but I know he will get the very best deal he can for the United States by establishing that anchor.
Will Donald Trump challenge the results of the election because of fraud? I don't know but he has set an anchor (expectation) that people better watch out for fraud because he may do something about it.
You can say the same thing about the Iran deal, NATO, NAFTA or his claims that he will sue this person or that person after the campaign.
Trump uses his words to set the stage for the actions he wants in the end.
Politicians like Clinton and Obama say the words to get elected but have no real idea how to implement them for action.
Think about that if you are still unsure of how to vote on Tuesday.
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