It is a magnificent sight.
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| Credit: USNews.com |
This week the cherry blossoms are in full bloom.
The blooms this year have reached their magnificent height a few days earlier than their historical average of April 4.
I find it interesting in the hyper-partisan world we live in today that even the cherry blossoms have been brought into the political debate. I guess it is hard for the beautiful cherry blossoms to escape that being located in Washington, DC.
I saw an article recently in which it is claimed that the cherry blossoms are blooming earlier which the website Climate Central claims is another indication of global warming.
It claims that the average peak bloom date has moved forward from April 6 between 1931-1960 to April 1 in the period between 1981-2010 due to global warming.
When I saw this I wondered why the data only stopped at 2010? Why did it not extend all the way to 2018? After all, if you believe in the argument for man-made AGW caused by increased level of CO2, the temperatures should be continually rising because carbon emissions are increasing each year. The cherry blossoms should also be blooming earlier with each passing decade as ever increasing levels of CO2 are present in the atmosphere. At least, that is what we are told is the
Perhaps it is because this has been the recent history of the cherry blossoms over the last several years according to the National Park Service.
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| Credit: National Park Service |
Why is that asterisk by the March 25 date in 2017? That is because half of the blooms were lost due to a late frost on March 14-16, 2017. Normally peak bloom is defined as when 70% of the trees have reached that stage. However, in 2017 due to the frost, 50% never even got there because they were killed by the frost. You could say that peak bloom was actually never reached due to the unexpected cold blast..
The average date for the last seven years? April 4. That is exactly in line with the average over the last 99 years.
Is Climate Central "cherry picking" the data to support a point of view?
It appears so. Of course, organizations like Climate Central clearly have an agenda. The scientists and journalists of that organization are those who believe the science is already settled. They are just looking for "facts" to support it.
What was more troubling in my research on this topic was what I found on the EPA's Community Connection page. You would expect a government agency would not be so interested in also "cherry picking" the data.
Here is a graph that tracks the peak bloom times for the cherry blossoms dating back to 1921.
Accompanying the graph is this statement,
Peak bloom date for the cherry trees is occurring earlier than it did in the past. Since 1921, peak bloom dates have shifted earlier by approximately five days.
Look at the chart above. The peak bloom date in 1921 was March 20. In fact, four times in the 1920's the cherry blossoms reached peak blooms in March.
If I take the data from the entire 1920's, the average peak bloom date is April 2. That is earlier than the average over the last seven years. It is almost exactly the same date the cherry blossoms peaked this year.
Why is a government agency also "cherry picking" the data?
What is evident in looking at the data above is that in the 50 years from 1921-1970 there were more years in which peak bloom dates were April 10 or later than in the next 49 years. There were 13 years in which peak blooms were reached on April 10 or later. There have only been 6 instances when this has occurred since 1971. This does argue for an overall warming trend over the last 50 years.
At the same time, there were 12 times between 1921-1970 that peak blooms were reached March 31 or earlier. This early blooming on the cherry blossoms has only occurred 11 times since 1971. You also could easily argue from this data that there were wider variations in the blooming of the cherry trees in those first 50 years of the data than in the later years. You see that in the chart above.
Isn't one of the arguments of the climate change crowd is that we are seeing more variations in the weather today? This data involving cherry blossoms does not support that.
You can also see in the chart above that the 1921-1950 period was warmer than the 1951-1985 period that was followed by another warmer period from 1986 to today. Why was it so much cooler in the 50's, 60's and 70's than today? In fact, that is the period when CO2 emissions on our planet started to rise dramatically.
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| https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions |
Interestingly, for those who are advocating for a Green New Deal for the United States, U.S CO2 emissions in 2018 were at the same level they were in 1996.
I clearly can be just as good at cherry picking the data as anyone else.
However, why does everything that happens or occurs these days have to used to score some political point?
Why can't more people also accept the fact that Almighty God is ultimately in control. The earth has warmed and cooled over the years without the slightest intervention of man. There were once glaciers that extended as far south as Southern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
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| Credit: BackyardNature.net |
How did it get so cold to form those glaciers? Those glaciers also melted. How did it warm? Man was not involved in the slightest in either instance. Your political views also had nothing to do with it. Why do we think it is different today?
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