It is the most crowded field to ever vie for a political party's nomination.
Why are so many running?
I think a big reason is that running for President in the media-driven world we live in today is an easy way to build a political brand while at the same time providing the candidates a way to line their own pockets. The visibility they get in running increases their name recognition and opens opportunities for speaking fees, book deals and the like.
Look no further than how Bernie Sanders leveraged a failed Presidential campaign to become a millionaire after losing to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Here is a pictorial of the Democrats that are now in the race shown in the order in which they announced their candidacy.
Don't feel bad if there are names you don't recognize. I am a political junkie and I had to look up the bios of a couple of these candidates myself.
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| Credit: ReutersGraphics |
One interesting factoid is that three of the candidates (Gabbard (38), Buttigieg (37), Swalwell (38)) are literally half the age of Bernie Sanders (77) and Joe Biden (76).
Biden and Sanders lead the current polls of the Democrat party who increasingly seems to love nothing better than to blame old, privileged, white men for every problem the country has. It will be interesting to see how this plays out as we move forward.
Here is the most recent polling data done by Monmouth which shows the polling strength of the announced candidates above as well as other candidates that may yet declare (DeBlasio, Bennet) and others who were rumored to be considering a run but have taken themselves out of the race (Brown, Holder, McAuliffe).
As you can see, the two old white guys right now are preferred by nearly half of the Democrat voters who were polled.
The Mayor of South Bend, Indiana Pete Buttigieg has had the fastest rising star among candidates over the last few months. Mayor Pete has gone from 0% to 8% in polling over the past three months. He seems to have primarily siphoned support from Harris (-3%), Warren (-2%) and O'Rourke (-3%).
Looking at this you have to ask whether we are really ready to elevate a 37-year gay Mayor from a city of 100,000 population to the highest office in the land? However, being the "fresh face" has generally been more important than experience and competence with Democrat Presidential primary voters in the past. Look no further than the Obama vs. Hillary race in 2008. Or Democrat candidates like McGovern, Carter, Dukakis and Clinton. It even applied to JFK who bested old hand Hubert Humphrey in 1960.
It is way too early for me to start handicapping this race. There are a lot of televised town hall forums and debates to come to assess the candidates. The candidates are also each going to need to raise a lot of money to be able to stay in the race. The crowded field will make fundraising very important as there are only so many dollars to go around.
Most of these candidates have also never had to undergo the scrutiny of a national race. Who knows what that scrutiny turns up?
At this point I would think Bernie Sanders has the best chance for the nomination. He has been through this before. He starts the race with the biggest fundraising operation. There are also a lot of supporters who believe he was cheated out of the nomination in 2016 by the DNC. However, in the end, will Democrat voters nominate a 78-year old unabashed Socialist (he is not officially a Democrat in the Senate) as their nominee?
I have similar doubts about Biden. He will turn 78 shortly after the 2020 election. He also has the reputation as a gaffe machine. He had to drop out of the 1988 Presidential race because of evidence he plagiarized political speeches as well as in classwork he did in law school. He has also been found to have a penchant for exaggerations, embellishments and distortions about his background.
The sheer number of candidates assures us of a crazy campaign.
It will be even crazier due to the policy proposals that this group of Democrats has already set forth.
These are just a few of the crazy ideas that have been put forth by these candidates.
Support for The Green New Deal and its trillions of spending and the proposed elimination of all fossil fuels, airplanes and cows
Cancellation of up to $1.6 trillion in student debt
Taxpayer funding of free public college tuition to anyone who wants it
Reparations to descendants of slaves of over $100 billion
Establishment of "Medicare for All" and elimination of all private health insurance
Abortions legalized up to and through the birth of the child
Taking down any border wall between the United States and Mexico and refusing to extradite any illegal immigrants that get into our country
Banning guns by executive order in direct defiance of the 2nd Amendment
Provide the right to vote for all felons currently in prison (including such model citizens as the Boston Marathon bomber).
It will be crazy.
I actually think the best line I have heard from any of the Democrat candidates is from Seth Moulton.
When asked what he thought he brought to the race and what differentiated him from the other candidates, he said,
"I'm not a Socialist. I'm a Democrat."
I guess we will eventually find out if the Democrat party is really still controlled by Democrats or whether it has been completely taken over by the Socialists.
The Democrats may even make this a crazier year than when 17 Republicans set their sights on the GOP nomination in 2016.
If I need to remind you of why it is not wise to make predictions about possible Presidential nominees right now, consider this Quinnipiac polling data from the last week of April, 2015---exactly 4 years ago.
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| Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, April 23, 2015 |
Where is Donald Trump in that poll? Nowhere. He was not even mentioned in the polling question because his candidacy was considered such a long shot. Trump did not formally announce his candidacy until June 16, 2015.
This ought to tell all of us we are long way from knowing where we will be a year from now.
However, you can be assured it will be a crowded and crazy path ahead.
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