My last edition of Monday Meanderings received some nice reviews from readers so I am posting another round.
Biden Sinking Even Faster Than I Thought?
Two weeks ago I wrote a blog post that Joe Biden appeared to be on the verge of sinking fast based on recent polling.
Another poll out last week by Rasmussen indicates that it might be much worse than I could have imagined.
The Rasmussen poll shows that only 48% approve of Biden's job performance.
What I found most interesting (and troubling for Biden) was looking at the cross-tabs in that poll.
What stood out in particular is the fact that Biden's approval with women is evaporating at levels that are hard to comprehend.
Exit polls from the 2020 election indicate that Biden would not have been elected without the female vote.
The CNN exit poll in 2020 showed that Biden got 57% of the women's vote. By contrast, Trump got 53% of the male vote.
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| Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results |
The Rasmussen poll from last week shows Biden underwater with women 46%-52% (-6 points).
In other words, Biden has gone from +15 with women to -6 since the election.
Even worse for Biden, the poll shows that only 26% of women strongly approve while 44% strongly disapprove of his performance.
Only 32% of women in the poll stated they thought the United States was headed in the right direction.
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| Source: https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1423982096251502597/photo/1 |
At the same time, Rasmussen shows that Biden has picked up support from men?
The poll also shows Biden's support among Blacks is also falling.
32% of Blacks strongly disapprove of Biden compared to 35% who strongly approve?
Biden received 87% of the Black vote in 2020.
The data on men and Blacks don't seem to add up and perhaps the poll is flawed somehow.
However, this trend may be interesting to keep an eye on.
If this polling is even partly true, Biden is in deep, deep trouble.
Vaccines Failing To Prevent Spread Of Covid
More troubling data this week from some of the the places in the United States that have the highest rate of vaccinations in their population.
It is hard to look at this data and believe that the vaccines are effective against preventing Covid right now.
85% of those eligible (age 12+) have received at least one dose of the vaccines in San Francisco. 78% are fully vaccinated.
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| Source: https://sf.gov/data/covid-19-vaccinations |
85% of those age 65+ are fully vaccinated.
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| Source: https://sf.gov/data/covid-19-vaccinations |
New cases are double what they were last year at this time in San Francisco despite almost 80% being fully vaccinated.
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| New Covid Cases in San Francisco Source: https://sf.gov/data/covid-19-cases-and-deaths |
The good news is that we have not seen deaths following cases in San Francisco thus far. However, deaths are a lagging indicator and we probably need another month after this spike in cases to really believe we are better off than last year.
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| Source: https://sf.gov/data/covid-19-cases-and-deaths#more-information |
Vaccines may very well be limiting severe illness and deaths. However, could it not also be due to better treatments and therapeutics?
Analyzing the data is never easy with Covid as there are so many moving parts.
Hawaii also has one of the highest vaccination rates in the nation. 72% of the population has received at least one dose (3rd best in the nation). Hawaii also had some of the highest mask compliance rates. Hawaii is also not allowing anyone into the state unless they have a negative Covid test upon arrival.
It is not going real well for Hawaii right now.
New York Vaccine Passports
New York City is mandating vaccine passports for indoor dining, fitness and entertainment venues.
People who do not have proof of vaccination will not be able to work in or patronize these facilities.
I find it interesting that a vaccine ID is considered acceptable in that city but voter ID is considered racist.
This is especially true considering that only 31% of Blacks and 42% of Hispanics in New York City are fully vaccinated.
What is even more interesting is that recent reports indicate that about half of New York's city police and fire personnel have refused to be vaccinated.
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| Source: https://nypost.com/2021/07/27/less-than-half-of-staff-vaccinated-at-key-nyc-public-agencies-data/ |
My guess is that a substantial number of these first responders in New York City have already had Covid and simply do not see the need to take the vaccines (and the risks) with no clear benefit over their natural immunity.
Is Mayor DeBlasio going to block them from entering a diner to eat?
It gets more difficult to understand when you look at the numbers in San Francisco and Hawaii that have high vaccination rates and yet cases are going up. What exactly is the vaccine passport going to do?
All of this cannot be good for the future of New York City retail rental real estate which is already feeling the effects of Covid.
America's 10th Largest City Created in 2021
You may not have realized it but the United States has added the equivalent of its 10th largest city just with the number of illegal aliens that have been apprehended (and released) at the southern border so far this year.
1,110.000 have been encountered by U.S. Customs and Border Protection thus far this year. That is larger than the population of San Jose, California which is the 10th largest city in the United States.
It is also about the same number of LEGAL immigrants that are supposed to be allowed into the country based on the current immigration law.
Of course, the LAW is now a small detail that no one in Washington, D.C. seems to be concerned with anymore.
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| Source: https://www.newsweek.com/enough-people-crossed-border-2021-create-10th-largest-city-us-1615776 |
210,000 illegals were encountered at the border in July alone according to estimates calculated by the Associated Press (official numbers have not yet been released for July by CBP). This would be the highest monthly total in 21 years.
The official CBP numbers through June show the year-over-year changes.
By country of origin.
Honduras +604%
Guatemala, El Salvador +400%
Mexico +195%
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| Source:https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters-by-component#wcm-survey-target-id |
By demographic.
Unaccompanied minors +337%!
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| Source:https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters-by-component#wcm-survey-target-id |
It also should be kept in mind that these are the numbers of illegals that the CBP know about. How many others snuck into the country that they don't know about?
All of this poses a difficult question.
Which language do you advise your children or grandchildren to study in school looking to the future?
Spanish or Chinese?
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