The China Virus

One of the great mysteries of what some refer to as the China virus is how Covid has had so little reported effect on the country of origin.

Other than the deaths that were reported in the early days of the pandemic in Wuhan, China, it has been a mystery of how the most populous nation in the world has escaped the worst parts of Covid.

Cumulative reported deaths in China barely register on this chart compared to other countries and regions in the world.

 

Covid deaths in China are .4% of the overall world rate per million.

They are about 1/1000th of the cumulative death rate in the United States.

Is China being honest with their numbers? How has this been possible?

Are we about to arrive at a point that China can no longer claim that it escaped the wrath of Covid?

Take a look at Covid deaths in Hong Kong right now.

How can Hong Kong (which has 85% at least partially vaccinated) be seeing this many Covid deaths right now and China is unscathed?

Hong Kong is now seeing daily deaths per capita that are almost 4 times as high as the United States experienced at its peak in January, 2021.

The surge has come despite the vaccines and after two years in which Hong Kong pursued a "zero Covid" strategy that included aggressive contact tracing, compulsory testing, border controls, and strict rules on travel and gatherings.

It all now appears to be for naught and Hong Kong is finding that not having a reservoir of natural immunity in the population is dangerous to the long-term health of its citizens.

Some argue that Hong Kong finds itself in this position because the vaccination rate for those over age 80 (the most vulnerable of age groups) is lower than for younger ages. I have seen reports that indicate that less than 50% of this demographic was fully vaccinated. This is exactly the opposite of what you would expect. 

Is this due to a particular distrust of the Chinese Communists by the older generations in Hong Kong who really understand the difference between freedom and totalitarianism?

I have not any explanations that make any more sense.

Since March 1, Hong Kong has had 3,500 deaths in a city with a smaller population than New York City. That would equal 150,000 deaths in the United States---in two weeks.

The numbers in Hong Kong suggest that China could be on the brink of a massive Covid surge or could even be in the early stages of a large outbreak.

For example, The New York Times reported on Tuesday that there are signs that Covid cases are rising in China.

Yesterday, outbreaks led to the closures of many theaters and restaurants in Shanghai, while several large factories — including a major maker of iPhones — suspended production. The shutdowns could ripple across the global economy, exacerbating goods shortages and inflation.

If Hong Kong is having trouble dealing with Covid, China could be facing bigger problems from Omicron. Its vaccine (Sinovac) is considered even less effective than the mRNA vaccines, it would seemingly have little natural immunity in its populace and its health care system is vastly inferior to what is found in Hong Kong.

War in Ukraine and Covid possibly sweeping China and disrupting production in that nation is not likely to be good for the U.S. economy which is already struggling with good shortages and inflation.

 It is unlikely we will ever get the real truth about anything that is happening in China.

We still don't know how the Covid pandemic will end.

However, would it not be poetic justice that the virus that started in China had its last final surge in the country in which it began?