This and That---3/9/22 Edition

A few factoids to provide you with some insights. perspectives and context on the issues of the day.

Covid Cases Down 95% Since Mid-January

In mid-January I predicted in these pages that I believed that we were at or near the peak of the Omicron surge. Based on my analysis of prior Covid patterns I predicted that daily cases should plummet and be down by as much as 90% by early March.

I also predicted this would occur irrespective of any vaccine and mask mandates and other so-called public health interventions.

If the full pattern holds this indicates that we should see daily cases declining by as much as 90% in early March from the peaks that will be reached this month.

This decrease will be reached irrespective of vaccine passports, mask mandates, booster uptake or anything else. The pattern is almost surely to be the same in free Florida as it is in restricted and mandated California

As of March 6, cases nationally were down 94% since mid-January's peak.

7-day average of new reported cases in U.S.
Source: The New York Times

Cases in California with all its mandates and restrictions are down 95% from the peak.

7-day average of new reported cases in California
Source: The New York Times

Cases in free Florida with no mandates or restrictions are down 97% from the peak.

7-day average of new reported cases in Florida
Source: The New York Times

Out Sick in January

Considering the charts above, the odds are you know someone who was out sick in January.

Labor Department data shows that 7.8 million working Americans called out sometime sick during the month. 3.6 million were out during the week of January 9-15.

It is hard to not see how extraordinary that spike in illness was in looking at the chart below.

Source: https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1490665804991455233/photo/1

However, what I found most interesting in looking at the chart (which dates back to the 1970's) was how the numbers of those calling out with illness had been on a downward trend for almost 50 years before Covid.

What is more interesting is that this chart is not adjusted for employment levels.

In 1970, there were only half as many people in the American workforce as there are today. This means that if these numbers were population-adjusted the lines at the far left of the chart would have to double to be consistent with the more recent numbers.

Did Americans get healthier or just more diligent in the 50 years before Covid hit?

Overwhelmed Hospitals

If you recall, the principal reason that the Covid lockdowns, masking and other restrictions were instituted was on the premise that we had to make sure we did not overwhelm the hospitals.

Two years into the pandemic, did we ever come come close to overwhelming the hospitals?

This chart shows monthly inpatient admission volumes for 2020 (light blue bar), 2021 (dark blue bar) and 2022 (orange bar) compared to 2019.

Source: https://www.stratadecision.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/National-Patient-and-Procedure-Volume-Tracker_February21_2022.pdf

Interestingly, there was not one month during two years of the pandemic where inpatient admission volumes exceeded 2019 levels.

The only month on this chart where 2019 levels were exceeded was February, 2020 before any pandemic emergency had been declared.

In April, 2020, hospital admissions were down -29.6% compared to 2019. In May, 2020, admissions were -20.6%. We almost bankrupted hospitals to save hospitals from a pandemic?

What were hospital admissions at the seasonal peak of cases in January, 2021 and January, 2022 compared to 2019?

January, 2021 vs. January, 2019   -11.6%

January 2022 vs. January, 2019  -13.6%

Even with the surge of illness seen in January, 2022 (see "Out Sick in January" above) hospital admissions were -1.4% compared to a year earlier.

Has there ever been a pandemic in human history in which hospital admissions went DOWN?

Virus Going To Virus

Since the beginning of the pandemic we have had many point to New Zealand, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong as models for managing the pandemic with a combination of strict Covid measures and high vaccination rates.

I have not seen many pointing to them lately.

For example, cases in South Korea are up an astounding 10,000% since vaccine passports were instituted in November, 2021.

The CDC actually issued a travel advisory for Americans to avoid travel to New Zealand as of March 7.

Source: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/traveler/none/new-zealand

For context, the U.S. peaked at an average of 2,400 cases per million in the middle of January.

Another Surge

I will end with this one.

No, it is not a chart showing a surge in Covid cases somewhere in the world.

It just looks like it.

It is a chart that shows increases in the money supply (M2) in the United States.

M2 has increased 41.8% over the last two years---the largest increase, by far, in history.

Nothing to see here.

The effects from our responses to Covid (lockdowns, school closures, money printing, vaccines?) will undoubtedly do more harm to society in the long run than the virus could have ever done by itself.