On January 17 I wrote a blog post predicting that we were at or very close to the peak in Covid cases in the winter surge we were dealing with in the United States.
I don't like making predictions in BeeLine. I focus my efforts in this blog on data and facts. These are tangible, real and objective. Predictions entail a forecast that requires subjective judgment. It it too easy to be wrong.
However, in analyzing the data and patterns of Covid in these pages over the last two years, I had noticed a consistent pattern in which case surges seemed to only advance for no more than 45 days followed by a fall in cases at the same speed they had advanced,
These were examples of surges in the UK, India and Florida where I noticed that pattern.
Based on my analysis of prior Covid patterns I predicted that daily cases should plummet and be down by as much as 90% by early March.
I also predicted this would occur irrespective of any vaccine and mask mandates and other so-called public health interventions.
If the full pattern holds this indicates that we should see daily cases declining by as much as 90% in early March from the peaks that will be reached this month.
This decrease will be reached irrespective of vaccine passports, mask mandates, booster uptake or anything else. The pattern is almost surely to be the same in free Florida as it is in restricted and mandated California.
At the same time that I was predicting we were at the peak several of President Biden's advisers stated that we should expect more pain from the pandemic.
For example, Biden's Surgeon General, Dr. Vivek Murthy said this on January 18.
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| Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/17/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html |
How does my prediction look in hindsight?
The national peak in cases was actually reached on January 14.
The 7-day average of daily cases in the United States is down 78% from the peak in mid-January.
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In my home state of Ohio, cases peaked on January 17, the exact date that I wrote my blog post predicting the peak.
Cases in Ohio are down 88% since then.
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This was not the result of additional lockdowns, mask mandates or other restrictions.
It also was not the result of many more people being vaccinated in Ohio. In fact, the last month has seen the smallest number of people receiving jabs since the vaccines or boosters were introduced.
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| New Daily First Doses of Vaccine Source: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/dashboards/covid-19-vaccine/covid-19-vaccination-dashboard |
Cases actually went down dramatically as vaccinations and booster doses went down.
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| Daily Booster Doses in Ohio |
I am not saying that there is a correlation.
However, doesn't it at least raise a question about the narrative?
Have all of the restrictions, mask mandates, vaccine passports. masked school children and the like in California resulted in cases coming down any faster in that state compared to Florida which has eschewed the restrictions on those within its borders?
There is essentially no difference in the advance or decline of the cases involving the recent surge in these two states.
Florida is down 76% from its peak.
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Cases in California have declined by 78% from the peak.
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My prediction seems to be on target right now.
If the current trend continues the 7-day average of new daily Covid cases will be down 90% from the peak by March 1.
Let's hope the trend continues.
The biggest concern is that we will see other variants emerge.
Geert Vanden Bossche believes that the more we vaccinate the greater the risk that new variants will emerge.
Hopefully, as the Omicron surge subsides there will be less interest in deploying an Omicron specific booster which Vanden Bossche believes would be the absolute worst thing we could do beyond vaccinating our children.
Seasonality will also be on our side soon in the Northern Hemisphere. It will be interesting to see how the pandemic evolves in the Southern Hemisphere as they enter their winter season.
That may tell us whether 2022 has brought us from highest the peak of the pandemic to a valley of endemicity that will allow life to return to something resembling normalcy soon.
Let's hope and pray that the valley ahead leads to a long, long plain.
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| Photo Credit: David Layne Source: https://thetexan.news/push-for-ports-to-plains-interstate-corridor-moves-to-u-s-senate/ |
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