The Narrative Doesn't Compute

 How often have you heard something like this over the last year?

"99% of those who have died from Covid are unvaccinated."

"There is almost no one hospitalized with Covid that is vaccinated."

"The Covid vaccines are overwhelmingly safe and effective at preventing severe disease and death."

I have stated in these pages before that I believe there is evidence that vaccines have prevented deaths, especially in those age 75+.

However, statements such as the ones above VASTLY OVERSTATE the benefits of the vaccines.

I have not understood why the CDC and others have felt it necessary to hype the benefits of the vaccine to such outlandish levels while downplaying the risks. However, there is little question they chose that narrative early and have not deviated from it despite what the data has revealed over time.

For example, the CDC recently released a study in which they claimed that the death rate for those unvaccinated was 13 times greater than someone who was fully vaccinated and 78 times greater than someone who was fully vaccinated with a booster.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/31/briefing/boosters-cdc-covid-effectiveness.html

Let's take a step back and apply some reason and logic to this claim and see if we can validate it.

There have been 10 billion doses of Covid vaccines administered globally in the last year.

Cumulative Covid Vaccine Doses Administered-World

Let's first look at this in the simplest terms possible.

I am not even going to consider the explosion of cases around the world since the vaccines have been introduced. Any claim that the vaccines are effective at limiting transmission or preventing infection is simply no longer credible by anyone making it.

The narrative that "this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated" has completely fallen apart.

Exhibit A below.

Daily New Covid Cases-World

Let's just focus on the issue of deaths.

In that 10 billon vaccines have been given over the last year it would seem logical that we should have seen some reduction or slowing of Covid deaths if the vaccines were really effective.

The reality of the data is that deaths from Covid have actually increased over the trend line we were seeing globally before the vaccines were introduced.

This does not look "effective" to me.

Yes, but you might be thinking the United States must be better. 

It has had access to the best vaccines. You might also believe that we have learned more about treating Covid and have had the advantage of utilizing monoclonal antibodies and other therapeutics over the last year or so. 

Deaths surely should have been trending down from the prior trend line before the vaccines were introduced in the United States.

No.

Covid deaths have averaged 30% higher per month since the vaccines were introduced in the United States than they were before.

Therefore, how is it that with 68% of every man, woman and child over the age of 5, and 88% of all those age 65+ fully vaccinated, that deaths are trending up rather than down?

Source: CDC

In addition, about half of those eligible for the booster dose have taken that jab. That number is nearly 2/3 with those age 65+.

Let's use my home state of Ohio to test the narrative of the CDC compared to real data.

CDC data indicates that 76% all Covid deaths are in those age 65+. That percentage holds true in my home state of Ohio as well.

87% of all those age 65+ in Ohio have been fully vaccinated. That is also consistent with the overall U.S. data.

On January 31, 2021 the 7-day average of Covid deaths in Ohio was 67.

On January 31, 2022 the 7-day average of Covid deaths in Ohio was 155.

New Reported Deaths in Ohio-7 day average
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/ohio-covid-cases.html

Deaths more than doubled from last year but we are supposed to believe that almost all of them were unvaccinated?

How is this possible with vaccines which are "highly effective" at preventing death?

Let's do some math around that.

Last year 469 (67 x 7 ) died in the last week of January all of which were unvaccinated based on the CDC definition used today. (To be fully vaccinated you have to be at least 14 days beyond the second dose). 

This year 1,085 (155 x 7) died in the last week of January. That is more than double what it was last year.

How does the math work if 87% of age 65+ are fully vaccinated, 76% of deaths are in those age 65+, deaths have more than doubled but we are told that almost all are among the unvaccinated?

The only way it does compute is if the current variant is many, many times deadlier compared to the virus we were experiencing last year.

To get the numbers to work you have to believe that 15-20% of the population is causing twice as many deaths as last year.

However, to get there you have to also be concluding that the introduction of the vaccines somehow made the virus many times more deadly to the unvaccinated than it was before.

Does any of this makes sense based on what we know and see around us?

The CDC has never even come to the conclusion that the Delta variant results in greater mortality than the original Wuhan strain although the CDC did conclude it was 2x more contagious. Omicron is obviously more infectious than Delta. However, early indications are it is far less lethal,

This simple graphic might explain it better.

If you assume deaths don't change over time, while the number of those unvaccinated decreases from 100% to 80%, that means that the risk factor of the unvaccinated has to increase by 5-fold in order to maintain a level death count if those vaccinated are not contributing to deaths.

In Ohio, the recent 7-day average death count is not level with last year. It is double what it was the same time last year.

You can do the math. The numbers don't work.

The narrative doesn't compute.

The narrative seemingly also doesn't compute when it is stated that the vaccines are highly effective at preventing severe disease and hospitalization.

Effective? Perhaps. Highly effective? You be the judge.

Let's look at hospitalization data from the most vaccinated state---Vermont.

95% of the age 5+ population in Vermont has had at least one dose of the vaccine. 83% are fully vaccinated. Among the age 65+ in Vermont, 95% are fully vaccinated.

Overall, hospitalizations have increased from 2.9/100,000 to 4.6/100,000---a 59% increases---from the peak last year compared to today in Vermont.

For the age 70+ age group, hospitalizations have increased from 14.4/100,000 to 18.1/100,000----a 27% increase---despite 95% of this age group being fully vaccinated.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/vermont-covid-cases.html

How can it be said that the vaccines are protecting against severe disease if hospitalizations are up 27% in a group with a 95% vaccination rate?

Are we to believe that 5% of this group is flooding the hospitals at higher numbers than 100% of the same group were doing last year when all were unvaccinated?

Again, the narrative doesn't compute when measured against against any semblance of logic.

What is most telling about the CDC data is that it is simply not supported by data from other countries in the world.

It is as if the CDC wants us to believe that Americans are a completely different species than the humans that inhabit the UK, Scotland or Israel. 

For example, in the UK 74% of the deaths for the last reported four week period were in those fully vaccinated. 

Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1049160/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-3-2022.pdf

In the age 70+ age group in the UK, 82% of those who died were vaccinated.

In the UK, 95% of those in this age group are vaccinated so it does appear that the vaccine is conferring some benefit against death. However, it certainly cannot be said that the vaccines are highly effective if 82% of deaths are coming from those who are vaccinated.

87% of Covid deaths in Scotland in the most recent reporting week were among the vaccinated.

The rate per 100,000 (population and age adjusted) is actually higher in those who are fully vaccinated than those who are unvaccinated.

The booster does appear to be providing protection against death right now but will that benefit fade over time as it appears it has for those fully vaccinated?

Source: https://publichealthscotland.scot/media/11318/22-01-26-covid19-winter_publication_report.pdf

Highly vaccinated Israel just recorded its highest death total of the entire pandemic this week.

Daily new Covid deaths per million in Israel

Israel is in the midst of administering a fourth shot to a large portion of their population. 

70% of Covid deaths last week were in those who are vaccinated.

Blue are deaths in the vaccinated. Orange represents deaths in the unvaccinated.

Notice as well that the deaths in the vaccinated have been climbing sharply in Israel in recent weeks.

Israel also has high vaccination rates (90%+ with those over age 60) so this is evidence of some benefit from the vaccines. (The vaccination rate is higher than the death rate for those vaccinated). However, it  is not in the same universe of benefit that the CDC is claiming in the United States.

How can the narrative be correct that that hospitalizations and deaths in the United States are overwhelmingly among the unvaccinated when that clearly is not the case in these other countries?

There are only two possible answers.

The data from the UK, Scotland, Israel and other countries is wrong

or

The CDC and others in the United States with an agenda are manipulating the numbers to fit their narrative

I don't know what the real truth is.

However, the data is telling me that the narrative doesn't compute.