Covid---Then and Now

In mid-January I predicted in these pages that I believed that we were at or near the peak of the Omicron surge. Based on my analysis of prior Covid patterns I predicted that daily cases should plummet and be down by as much as 90% by early March.

I also predicted this would occur irrespective of any vaccine and mask mandates and other so-called public health interventions.

If the full pattern holds this indicates that we should see daily cases declining by as much as 90% in early March from the peaks that will be reached this month.

This decrease will be reached irrespective of vaccine passports, mask mandates, booster uptake or anything else. The pattern is almost surely to be the same in free Florida as it is in restricted and mandated California.

My predictions have proven accurate.

As of February 23, The New York Times Covid dashboard shows that the 7-day average of daily cases has decreased by 90.5% from its peak on January 14.

Source: The New York Times

In the meantime, we are seeing an increasing number of states and cities (most notably Democrat controlled) remove mask and vaccine mandates while the cases are receding.

This is tremendous news.

However, where were we with Covid at this point last year?

We actually had less cases at this time last year than we have right now.

The 7-day average of daily cases was 67,854 on February 23, 2021. Cases are actually 13% higher in 2022 despite the fact we have had a 90% reduction in new cases since mid-January.

Source: The New York Times

What about hospitalizations?

There are more people in the hospital with Covid this year than last year.

Source: The New York Times

63,106 is the daily average now vs. 60,155 last year.

It is true that the number of ICU cases are down in 2022 vs. 2021 which may be attributable in part to the vaccines.

What about deaths?

3,025 Covid deaths were reported by the New York Times on February 23, 2022.

Last year on the same date there were 2,328 deaths reported on February 23.

The 7-day average is slightly better this year. 1,908 in 2022 vs. 2,056 in 2021.

Source: The New York Times

However, shouldn't these numbers be down drastically with Covid vaccines that are supposedly so highly safe and effective?

In fact, almost one year ago to this day Dr. Tony Fauci proclaimed that all three of the Covid vaccines were so "highly efficacious" that getting vaccinated would mean "no hospitalisations and no deaths".

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/vaccine-covid-fauci-deaths-b1808878.html

That was then.

This is now after over 550 million doses of Covid vaccines have been administered with 81% of everyone 5 years and older receiving at least one dose.

Look at the data, then and now, and you can determine for yourself how "highly effective" all of the public health advice has been over the last two years.