How Will Covid Be Remembered?

As reported deaths from Covid-19 have surpassed 1 million in the United States there have been some who have suggested that there should be a national memorial day in remembrance of the victims.

Source: https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2022/should-we-have-a-national-memorial-day-for-1-million-covid-19-deaths/

I have lost at least three people I knew well to Covid. All the deaths are a cause for immense sadness. However, to equate these deaths with the sacrifices that are remembered of those who died in service of our country is misguided.

There is simply no equivalence. It is not even close. In my view, establishing a memorial day for Covid victims (or even erecting a memorial in Washington, D.C.) would diminish the significance of those who have given the ultimate sacrifice is misguided.

You have to ask as well if we believe that a Covid Memorial is warranted how come no memorial was ever considered for all of the victims of the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918/19?

It is estimated there were 675,00 deaths from the Spanish flu in the United States.

Covid looks worse at first blush but it is important to put that number in context.

The population of the United States in the 1920 census was less than one-third of what it is today.

The Spanish flu pandemic claimed twice as many deaths when measured as a percent of the population as Covid has.

That pandemic was also much more costly to the society at large as deaths were primarily concentrated in younger ages. 

You can see from this chart that the Spanish flu was particularly fatal for those under age 40. In fact, less than 1% of deaths from the Spanish flu were in those over age 65.

Distribution of Deaths by Age for Spanish flu, Ages 15-45
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734171/

Covid, by contrast, has largely targeted older ages. 75% of Covid deaths have been in those over age 65. Over half of the deaths have been 75 years or older.

A young life lost is not just a loss of life it is an unfulfilled life of potential that is also lost forever. It could truly be said that it is an incalculable loss. It also carries a high economic cost to society. Who knows what might have been produced or invented by this young talent over their lifetimes?

I have written in the past how high that cost is as shown in this chart by Professor Kevin Murphy of the University of Chicago that shows the value of longevity gains in the economy since 1900.

We have never seen anything remotely close to the longevity losses we had from the Spanish flu in that 1918/19 period. Not in World War II or Vietnam.

You can see the enormous loss in 1918/19 due to the Spanish Flu and World War I. Notice as well that the gains between men and women diverged in the 1940's (World War II) and the 1960-1970 period (Vietnam War) as many more men were lost than women in those wars.

Since the Covid pandemic began I have always thought it interesting that I never heard my grandparents speak of the Spanish flu pandemic one time even though they were at an age (late teens, early 20's) that they were prime targets of the virus. They also must have had friends who succumbed to the virus. On the other hand, they spoke often of World War I and World War II. My grandfather served in the Army in the World War I.

That has led me to wonder exactly what level of importance we will ascribe to Covid in hindsight,

My guess is that there will be much more made of our public health response to the virus (lockdowns, school closures, masks, vaccine mandates), and how it affected our lives, than the actual virus itself.

Why do I say that?

Look at this chart of U.S. monthly deaths from 2015 through February, 2022 for ages 15-44 using data from the CDC's Wonder Database as of May 5, 2022.

2020 all-cause deaths for these age groups were 24% above 2019 levels.

2021 all-cause deaths were 43% above 2019 levels.

2022 all-cause deaths (for January and February) were also 43% above 2019.

Over 70% of the excess deaths for these age groups during the pandemic is for non-Covid reasons.

 Credit: https://twitter.com/COVIDData3/status/1522244667953274880/photo/1

Notice as well that the vast majority of the Covid deaths for these age groups came well after the vaccines were introduced.

If this was a smallpox, polio or measles vaccine would we be stating that the vaccines have been extraordinarily effective?

What can you attribute the excess deaths (the blue bars) for non-Covid reasons over the last two years other than in some way to our public health response to the virus? 

Is there any other explanation?

These deaths are not trivial. Death rates in these age groups are over 40% higher than normal with the vast majority being for non-Covid reasons.

These excess deaths for non-Covid reasons for age 15-44 age groups are actually larger than all of the deaths by the U.S. in the Vietnam War!

This is a real tragedy that almost no one is talking about.

It may not qualify for a memorial.

However, someone should be finding the answers to what caused this in the memory of this loss of talent and potential contributions to our society.