A Glimmer of Hope

For most of the last 2-1/2 years I would look at the Covid data and end up being discouraged.

Even when the public health authorities were extolling "the success" of the vaccines I was warning of trouble ahead as I looked at the underlying data.

The warning signal last summer was the surge in cases in the Sunbelt.

We had seen a similar surge in the summer of 2020. If the vaccines were really working that well how come we were seeing more cases in the Sunbelt in 2021 than we did in 2020 with two-thirds of the adult population fully vaccinated in states like Florida?

What we are seeing in Florida and across the Sunbelt this year offers a glimmer of hope.

So far we are not seeing anywhere near the surge in confirmed cases this summer in Florida that we did in the previous two years.

Confirmed Covid Cases in Florida
Source: The New York Times

Yes, the number of reported cases may be artificially low in 2022 due to increased home testing but the number of those hospitalized with Covid in Florida this year is clearly lower than the last two summer surges. That is particularly true for those in ICU.

Although cases in the United States right now are double what they were at the same time in 2020 and 50% more than they were in 2021, we are not seeing a national surge.

The number of daily confirmed cases has remained remarkably stable at between 110,000-125,000 for the last two months.

Source: The New York Times

Hospitalizations nationally right now are slightly higher than they were at this time last year even though cases are twice as high.

Some would argue that this is due to the vaccines. That might be true.

However, it also may be due to the fact that the current Omicron variant is much less likely to cause severe disease and the virus is becoming more endemic.

It might be due to the fact that we have a better understanding of how to treat Covid.

The fact that cases are not surging across the Sunbelt may also be the result of more herd immunity due to the huge numbers of individuals who have now been infected with the virus. This is especially true for those who have been infected since last November with Omicron.

In looking at the data, the glimmer of hope is that the virus may be having a more difficult time of mounting a strong surge than it did in the past.

A pessimistic view would be what I have previously shared based on the views of Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche.

He might see that steady level of Covid cases that is not dropping down to previous lows as a warning sign that the virus could be mutating further to make it even more contagious and deadly than we have seen previously.

When I first started studying what Vanden Bossche was saying a year ago he stated that one of the things to watch for as the pandemic unfolded was whether cases failed to drop below previous lows despite the vaccination effort.

He argued that this was an indication that the virus was continuing to mutate and build within the population in what he called a "valley of fitness". He predicted this would invariably lead to another surge in cases as the virus worked around the vaccines and resulted in another variant. 

Are we seeing that occurring in the United States right now in that case levels are higher now than they were at this time of year in pre-vaccine 2020 or immediately after the aggressive vaccine push in the first six months of 2021?

I am not seeing evidence of this thus far in the data to support Vanden Bossche's view that a new, more virulent variant is emerging.

That may change but for now there is a glimmer of hope that brighter days are ahead.

The real test lies ahead in the Fall which traditionally has been the season when respiratory viruses spread most easily.

The Biden administration knows this and have ordered 171 million doses of what is being referred to as an Omicron-specific booster.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/us-secures-171-million-omicron-covid-shots-ahead-of-fall-vaccination-campaign.html

This leads to two questions.

Will the virus mutate again by the Fall such that vaccine will have limited efficacy?

How many people are left that are willing to roll up their sleeves for another booster?

Considering that we have already seen the virus mutate from the original Wuhan alpha version to Delta to Omicron we may already be overdue in seeing another significant mutation.

Considering how poorly the vaccines and boosters have performed in limiting transmission and disease prevention I would bet that a good portion of the 171 million booster doses may go unused.

As always, the data will tell the tale over the remainder of the year.

In the meantime, right now I am holding on to the current glimmer of hope I see in the data.