It's Baked In The Cake

As Republicans look to assign blame in the wake of the Georgia Senate race between Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R) there are fingers pointing in numerous directions.

Donald Trump

Mitch McConnell

Herschel Walker 

RNC Chairman Ronna McDaniel

The Warnock victory also meant that the Democrats held every incumbent Senate seat.

Every Republican incumbent Senator also won reelection.

To put that in historical context, there has never been a Senate election that every incumbent won in over 100 years.

All of this occurred despite a backdrop of high inflation, an uncertain economy, increasing questions about the place of the United States in the world and a Democrat President with a low approval rating.

This also was the result despite only 21% of Americans approving of the way Congress is handling its job. 75% disapprove.

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx

How do you explain it?

With any loss there is always plenty of blame to go around. You can make an argument that all the names above deserve some of it.

However, what really comes to mind to me is the old adage "It's baked in the cake".

It seems that political views and preferences are so set right now that almost nothing is going to change the voting patterns of most Americans.

It is convenient to blame the candidate, or Trump, McConnell or the RNC chair but it appears to me that most of the American electorate is immovable.

They have put a stake in the ground (or planted a flag in the cake) on who and what they believe is best for the country and no person or persuasion is going to change their minds.

It's baked in the cake.

If they did not move in this election, despite bad news all around them, they are not likely to move unless their world literally starts crashing down on them.

Let's look at the Georgia Senate race.

The latest results show that Walker lost to Warnock by 2.8 points in the runoff.

In the 2020 Senate runoff in Georgia, Kelly Loeffler lost to Warnock by 2 points.

It is a rounding error's difference.

Interestingly, Warnock only received 79.3% of the votes he got in the 2020 runoff which was hotly contested in that the control of the Senate rested on that race. The stakes were not quite as high this year as Democrats already knew they were in control even if Warnock lost.

Walker got 78.3% of the vote total that Loeffler did. That 's another rounding error difference.

However, it also shows that the Democrats did a slightly better job of turning out the vote than the Republicans did and that was all it took.

Donald Trump got 743,000 more votes in 2020 than Walker did in the runoff. 

If only 15% of those voters had showed up for Walker he would have won.

Turnout is that important. 

Could another candidate have done better than Herschel? 

It's possible but unlikely when you consider what is already baked in the cake in Georgia.

For example, in DeKalb County, in Atlanta's eastern suburbs, Warnock beat Walker 87%-13%. Trump lost to Biden 83%-16%. It's baked in the cake in DeKalb with a population that is 55% African American.

Trump lost to Biden 73%-26% in Fulton County. Walker lost 77%-23%.

Perhaps another Republican could have picked up a percent or two more in those two counties but unless bigger turnouts could have been achieved in rural Red counties it still would not make a difference in the statewide results.

You also have to face the fact that almost any other candidate that would have replaced Walker would have had a fraction of the name ID that the former Georgia football star did. Name ID matters a lot in politics.

Some argue as to how could incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp win reelection by 7 points while Walker lost?

First, Kemp was the INCUMBENT. We have seen evidence of why that is so important.

Second, Kemp's opponent, Stacey Abrams, had picked up considerable baggage over the last four years due to her whining about the last election.

Third, you also have to consider the money advantage that Warnock had over Walker.

 

Source: https://twitter.com/DavidGiglioCA/status/1600326688948490240/photo/1

An extra $100 million buys a lot of attack ads.

When you have that type of money advantage in politics a victory is also usually baked in the cake.

As long as identity politics continues, Georgia is a tough state for a Republican to win.

33% of the population of Georgia is African American.

10% are  Hispanic.

Only 51% are White.

If 90% of African Americans automatically cast their ballot for the Democrat in every election it's baked in the cake.

If 70% of Hispanics vote for Democrats it's baked in the cake.

If you do the math, a Democrat candidate has 37% of the vote starting out before the Republican even gets started in Georgia trying to earn votes.

White voters have to back the Republican candidate by almost 75% just to offset that advantage out of the box.

However, White voters do not vote anywhere near those numbers as a homogenous identity group (despite what the mainstream media and liberal pundits want you to believe).

That is especially true for White women college graduates. 

Could there have been a Republican candidate in Georgia that appealed more to White women college graduates?

Perhaps a couple more points could have been gained in the election results with another candidate.

However, putting Dr. Oz on the ballot in Pennsylvania (who seemed to be the ideal candidate to appeal to White college educated suburban women) did not turn out well.

White women with a college degree in Pennsylvania supported the barely functional John Fetterman 62%-37% over Oz. White women without a college degree supported Oz 55%-44%.

Oz lost overall by 5 points in a state Trump only lost by 1.2%. 

It is difficult to ignore the obvious impacts that the education system has had over the last 30 years in shaping the hearts and minds of young voters with progressive propaganda.

That reality is also baked in the cake.

The fact is that there is so much baked in the cake today that it suggests a difficult road ahead for Republicans in Georgia and other swing states based on the 2022 midterm results without placing blame on any one person.  

I had some optimism before the election that we might see some movement in some of the hardened political views because of how quickly the nation has spiraled downwards the last couple of years.

The 2022 election suggests to me those views are baked in the cake pretty firmly right now.

It can change.

However, it is clear that it is going to take much more pain and disruption in the lives of voters for this to occur. 

That is not a prospect I look forward to but it may have to occur before all is said and done as we live through The Fourth Turning.

(If you are not familiar with the term "The Fourth Turning" I suggest you read the first of several blog posts I have written about it in these pages here.)