An interesting question as we embark on the year 2023 and interest begins to build for the 2024 Presidential election is whether we will see Biden 2.0 vs. Trump 2.0?
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| Credit: James Devaney/GC Images | Alex Wong/Getty Images via Fox News |
I don't like making political predictions because it is too easy to be wrong. I prefer analysis based on data.
However, if I were to place odds on Biden 2.0 vs. Trump 2.0 right now, I would suggest there is only a 1% chance that both Biden and Trump will be the candidates on the final ballot in 2024.
In fact, I believe there is less than a 50% chance that even one of them will be on the ballot in November, 2024 as I forecast the next Presidential race at the present time.
There are too many cautionary signs out there for both Trump and Biden right now.
How do I come to those conclusions?
Let's consider Trump first.
I wrote a blog post 18 months ago that detailed how I thought things would play out for Trump looking to 2024. See "Trump 2024?".
If you read what I wrote in July, 2021 I think you will find that most things have played out pretty closely to how I saw things would unfold.
In that blog post I cited three factors that would enhance Trump's prospects for 2024 and three that would diminish his prospects. Of the three that would help Trump, two have not gone his way.
I stated that he needed to unearth some definitive proof that there was foul play in the 2020 election. That has not happened to the degree necessary for the average voter to accept. As a result, Trump looks more like a whiner than a winner. Look no further than Stacey Abrams to see how that plays with voters.
I also stated that Trump needed to have his endorsed candidates win their races in 2022. Most did but losses of his candidates in high profile swing states Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia damaged the Trump brand.
The only thing that Trump has going for him is if there is a further deterioration in the state of the country over the next year or so. Trump has a proven record of performance over four years and most people did pretty well during that time. That is a real advantage in times of trouble.
This is what I wrote in that regard in my previous blog post.
Trump has many critics but hard times have a way of focusing people on what is most important. Trump's personality is the most cited reason why many did not like him. When people are in trouble they are less concerned with personality and more concerned about performance. A deteriorating situation in the country will make Trump a lot more attractive to more people than you can imagine.
The three factors that I cited as working against Trump in 2024 all still apply.
That is not good news for Trump when you weigh the pros and cons that I outlined 18 months ago.
Here are the three factors that I wrote about previously that would work against Trump as a candidate looking to 2024. All three are sill in play.
This is what I wrote in July, 2021.
What are three things that could derail any ambitions Trump may have for 2024?
1. There is a natural human trait to prefer potential over achievement. I wrote about this in 2014.
Why does an untested high school pitcher command a bigger signing bonus from a major league baseball team than a proven major league pitcher with six years of experience as a starter?
Why does a fledgling tech company IPO result in a market cap far in excess of a steady and profitable company that has a 10 year record of success in the marketplace?
Why does the up and coming young MBA a few years out of school get the promotion over the steady, seasoned and loyal 10 year manager?
Why do NFL fans of mediocre teams always clamor for the 2nd string quarterback?
Why did an untested Barack Obama beat two candidates (Hillary Clinton and John McCain) who were both more accomplished and experienced than he was?
You can read my previous blog post for the explanation of the Stanford academic that has studied this human trait in detail.
In the political realm I think it relates to the fact that prior achievement has boundaries. Potential is boundless, especially on the upside. Hope really does spring eternal.
People know all the warts and weaknesses of the politicians they are familiar with. Almost everyone also believes that they know Trump well. Therefore, it is easy to project optimism on DeSantis, Haley, Noem or someone else and decide they are going to be a much better candidate than Trump. They are perfect in the eyes of many voters right now. Let's get Trump's policies with a better personality and all will be well.
This will be an effect Trump will have to overcome because the new face is always going to be more interesting and enticing than someone that you know better.
2. Allegations of wrongdoing by Trump that go beyond what is perceived as more than a witch hunt. Democrats have long claimed that Trump is a crook or has been involved in nefarious activities. However, we have heard this for five years and they have not been able to turn up anything on the man. The latest charges involving his company and its CFO by New York state looks to be politically motivated. If there was wrongdoing with the Trump organization's taxes why was this not found by the IRS? Why is a Manhattan Democrat District Attorney involved? Trump has also been out of the active management of the business for over five years. Why now? Perhaps there is something there but it looks like a political hit job to me right now.
There is little question that the Democrats are going to turn over every rock and throw everything they can at Trump and his family the next few years They clearly live in fear of the man. They may get something that sticks and get people to believe that it is more than political retribution. If they do, Trump will not be viable in 2024 as his political brand will be permanently damaged. Once you lose trust you don't get it back.
3. Trump's endorsements and efforts at promoting candidates in 2022 falls flat and/or the GOP generally has disappointing results in the mid-term elections.
This might apply even if the GOP gain seats in the mid-terms but the results do not meet the expectations sets before the election.
Any mid-term setback will likely create a narrative that the losses were due to Trump's influence on the party and a change of direction is necessary for 2024.
I have no idea how this will play out.
We are still 2.5 years from the first 2024 primaries and a lot can happen in two years. In fact, at times a few months can be an eternity in politics.
I still have no idea how it will play out over the next 18 months but Trump has taken some hits. Right now the trend is not Trump's friend. The odds do not favor him if you consider my analysis.
However, I have learned to never underestimate Donald Trump.
Trump is indefatigable. In fact, I wrote a blog post in 2019 titled "The Indefatigable Donald Trump" in which I wrote this.
Say what you want about Donald Trump but the thing that sets him apart is that he is not afraid to take action. He is not afraid to face criticism. He is unrelenting. He persistently works to achieve his objectives. There is no quit in him.
There has been no politician like him in my lifetime. Perhaps that is because he did not spend a lifetime as a politician. Perhaps that is because he doesn't really need the job. Perhaps that is because he is an arrogant egomaniac. I don't know why he does what he does.
What I do know it that he is indefatigable. He relentlessly pushes his agenda forward. That, more than anything, defines who he is and why he should never be underestimated. That is also why the Democrats and liberal media despise and fear him so much.
Let's turn to the prospects for Biden 2.0
The biggest advantage Biden has is that he is the incumbent and has all the power and financial resources that come with that. You must be very brave (or very foolish) to challenge a sitting President of your party for the nomination. It has been said that if you want to take out the king, you better not miss. Such is the advantage that Biden holds right now.
However, I see three major factors that could prevent Biden from being on the ticket.
1. Biden's mental or physical health could deteriorate further. Biden is 80 years old. He would be 82 if he is sworn in for another term. He would be 86 if he served the full term. To put that in context, Ronald Reagan left office when he was 77. No one before ever held the office at that age.
Biden was older when he took office than Reagan was that when he left office. All of this suggests that Biden's age and/or health could easily prevent him from running again. He may not decide that on his own. Combined with a worsening economic situation in the country Democrats may conclude they cannot risk their 2024 election prospects with Biden at the head of the ticket.
2. If inflation persists and/or the economy goes into recession it will be bad news for Biden. The same is true if there are major problems in the foreign policy area (Russian defeats Ukraine, China invades Taiwan, Iran attacks Israel). All of these would signal that the United States has lost significant standing on the world stage under Biden.
Big problems call out for strong leadership. Voters get nervous when their economic or personal security is at risk. In times like these the people want strong, vigorous and clear minded leadership. This does not describe Joe Biden in any shape, manner or form. Troubled times will be trouble for Biden. It is hard to believe that we will not see some serious challenges over the next year or so. This is a significant risk for Biden and the Democrats.
I was of the belief that a strong showing by the GOP in the midterms would have meant that there would have been an increasing number of Democrats asking for Biden to step aside in 2024. The midterms gave Biden a reprieve. Can he be so lucky over the next two years? The odds say no.
3. Biden's biggest problem over the next two years is that he is going to have the cloud of investigations hanging over his head. House Republicans are going to dig deeply into Hunter Biden's business affairs and Biden's connection to anything that Hunter was doing. The focus will be on possible influence peddling with Ukraine, China and other countries.
Add to this the Special Counsel investigation that was announced last week to look into the question of how classified documents ended up in a think tank office that Biden used as well as documents found in his garage at his home in Delaware.
What is most interesting about this revelation is how this all came about? Why is this coming to light now? This is particularly true after Biden, his Justice Department and the FBI made such a big deal about the same issue with Trump. There is something strange about all of this. You have to figure that Hunter's issues plays into this somehow.
In fact, Hunter Biden claimed in a 2018 background screening request that his current residence was Joe Biden's home in Delaware in which some of the classified documents were found. Even stranger, Hunter stated on the document that he was the owner of the property. At the same time, he states he is paying $49,400 in rent per month for his current residence.
Something does not add up somewhere.
Bear in mind that Joe Biden once said his son Hunter was the smartest man he knows.
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| Source: https://twitter.com/mirandadevine/status/1613576887728496640 |
I have seen some suggest that it looks like someone on the Democrat side may be working to undermine Biden for 2024. Another suggestion is that Biden may be trying to get ahead of other revelations and wants to appear transparent and doesn't want to compound the issue with charges of a coverup.
The other thing we have learned about Special Counsel investigations is that they are rarely limited in scope. They tend to expand and get into other issues. I have already seen some suggest that the Special Counsel should also be looking at Biden's relationship with China.
They could start by following the money trail from China to Biden though the University of Pennsylvania. The New York Post reports that various Chinese interests donated millions of dollars to the University of Pennsylvania shortly after it established the Penn Biden Center think tank.
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| Source: https://nypost.com/2023/01/11/penn-biden-center-is-dark-money-nightmare-patronage-mill/ |
The University of Pennsylvania received more than $30 million from Chinese donors shortly after the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, which functioned as an office for Joe Biden before he was elected president...according to public records.
“The Penn Biden Center is a dark-money, revolving-door nightmare where foreign competitors like China donated millions of dollars to the university so that they could have access to future high-ranking officials,” said Tom Anderson, director of the Government Integrity Project at the Virginia-based National Legal and Policy Center.
The University of Pennsylvania raked in a total of $54.6 million from 2014 through June 2019 in donations from China, including $23.1 million in anonymous gifts starting in 2016, according to public records.
Most of the anonymous donations came after the university officially announced in February 2017 that it would create the academic center named for Biden, whose term as vice president under Barack Obama had just ended. In addition to leading the think tank, Biden was named a professor at the school.
The Ivy League institution received $15.8 million in anonymous Chinese gifts in 2017 and one $14.5 million donation in May 2018, three months after the center opened, records show.
I wrote a blog post three years ago about "Professor Biden" and his tax return filings He was paid around $400,000 per year in 2017 and 2018 by Penn (which is two-and-a-half times the average Penn professor) even though he never taught one class.
My guess is that if anyone ever truly starts investigating the money trail from foreign governments to Hunter Biden to Joe it is not going to be a pretty sight.
The only question is whether anyone will really INVESTIGATE Biden?
When you consider that the FBI has been in possession of Hunter's laptop for over three years and no one ever did anything to Hillary Clinton when she broke every rule in the book for classified documents, and the extent that she used influence peddling to fund the Clinton Foundation, you understand there is a double standard in operation for Democrats when it comes to the FBI and Justice Department.
If we see a legitimate investigation proceeding, you have to know that the Democrat establishment has decided that it is time for Joe to go.
Biden only gained the Democrat nomination in 2020 because the Democrat establishment became nervous that Bernie Sanders might win. As a result, they put all of their money and power behind Joe. He was deemed to be the best choice to prevent Bernie from getting the nomination compared to the other choices that included Kamala, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg.
Of course, the Republican establishment also abhors Trump. They did in 2016 as well but they underestimated him and Trump won against a large field.
A large field in 2024 will also be to Trump's advantage as he will probably have a large core of committed voters even if they are not a majority. This is all you need to win in a crowded primary field.
If the Republican establishment wants to stop Trump in 2024 they will need to coalesce around a single challenger much like Democrats did in 2020 with Biden.
Ron DeSantis looks to be the choice right now although DeSantis has still not signaled whether he is running.
Consider the money the DeSantis political PAC raised in 2022 and where it came from compared to Trump's donors. This is a headline from a Bloomberg article in August, 2022.
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| Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/desantis-taps-donors-griffin-tudor-jones-in-142-million-haul?leadSource=uverify%20wall |
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