Exit Stage Left

I have predicted in these pages before that I give it no better than a 1% chance that both Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be on the general election ballot in November, 2024.

I also believe the probability is greater that Donald Trump will be on the ballot than Joe Biden.

An ABC/Washington Post poll released yesterday shows why I hold that view.

Both Trump and Ron DeSantis hold seven point leads over Biden right now.

Recall that the popular vote totals in 2020 were as follows.

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/did-biden-win-little-or-lot-answer-yes-n1251845

 

Turning a nearly 5 point margin to a 7 point deficit in a little over two years is not easy to do.

Joe Biden has done it.

If you look at the poll results it is clear that right now the 2024 election is much more about Joe Biden than who he runs against.

Trump and DeSantis are polling almost identically against Biden.

You see the problems that Biden has when you look at some of the internals in the poll.

Only 41% think Biden is honest and trustworthy.

Only 32% believe that he has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as President.

Just 33% see Biden as in good enough physical health to serve effectively as President.

With numbers like these it is hard to imagine the Democrat establishment not looking for a reason to gracefully get Biden to exit gracefully to stage left.

The Democrat establishment has too much at stake at who is sitting in the White House to risk staying with Biden if he continues to poll like this.

There is too much money, too much Dem patronage and all the rest for the Democrat establishment to trust this election to Biden.

You get a better idea of the uneasiness voters feel about Biden right in looking at answers to other questions in the poll.

Over 50% of poll respondents stated that Donald Trump should face criminal charges for events surrounding the 2020 election, his handling of classified documents after he left office or the events connected to January 6th.

Despite this, Trump still leads Biden by 7 points in the poll?

To get that poll result you have to have a number of voters who believe Trump should be indicted but also believe he is a better choice for President than Joe Biden.

I think that says a lot more about Biden than it does Trump.

The following poll question must also be striking fear in the Democrat establishment (and the mainstream media) right now.

Trump beats Biden on handing the economy by 54%-36%.

Remember how we were told how bad things were during the Trump years?

And how we are continually told how the Biden administration has improved things?

This is Biden speaking on Friday about how he has produced an economy that is better than Trump's.

Look, when I came to office, we had incredibly high unemployment, we were in a situation where we had very little movement on anything going on. And look at the employment rate now. Just today, 250,000 new jobs, highest participation in 75 years of women in the job market, lowest unemployment rate for African Americans. Things are moving.

Of course, he only wants to compare his performance to the months of the Covid lockdowns

In fact, the economy is the theme in Biden's most recent ad for 2024.

It is all great according to the Democrats.

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3985777-biden-campaign-2024-ad-economy/

The problem for Biden is that voters are not buying it.

Inflation is squeezing household budgets. Interest rates have soared. Regional banks are failing. The federal debt continues to be left unaddressed.

You add it all up and Biden has the lowest approval rating (36%) of ANY President at this point 18 months away from the general election.

From ABC News analysis of the poll results.

Biden's approval rating is numerically the lowest on record for any first-term president a year and a half from the next presidential election in polling dating to Harry Truman. Similar was Gerald Ford, at 40% approval in May 1975; Jimmy Carter, at 37% in May 1979; and Trump, at 39% in April 2019. None were re-elected.

There is a lot of time left before the 2024 elections and many twists and turns remain that could change the electoral landscape before then.

However, based on what I am seeing today do not be surprised if Joe Biden exits stage left before the American people start voting. 

As a good Democrat, you can be assured he will not exit stage right.