There are the occasional races where there might be an Independent, a Libertarian, Green Party candidate or someone else, but generally voting for a third party candidate is more principled than practical.
It usually requires answering this question when you walk into the voting booth.
Do you want to vote for the Republican or Democrat candidate?
Voting when you do not like either candidate is particularly difficult.
Who is the least bad choice?
This is the world of political relativity.
For many in 2024, it is their reality when it comes to voting in November.
Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have a lot of negatives with voters.
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| Credit: NBC News |
What makes this election even more interesting is that it is almost as if two incumbents are running against each other since Trump's first term is still fresh in people's minds.
A CNN poll released last week provides some perspectives on what voters are thinking.
Biden has a net negative job approval of -20 points. 40% approve, 60% disapprove.
61% say Biden's presidency has been a failure. 39% say it has been a success.
Biden has a net favorability rating of -23 points. 35% favorable, 58% unfavorable.
Donald Trump has a net favorability rating of -16 points. 37% favorable, 53% unfavorable.
When Trump left office in January, 2021, 55% of voters judged it to be a failure.
45% said it was a success.
When voters are asked that question today, 55% of voters in the CNN poll now rate the Trump presidency as a success.
Why the change in attitude?
The passage of time and political relativity.
Joe Biden's time in office has provided some perspective for voters in judging Trump's tenure.
In July, 2021, most political pundits did not give Trump much of a chance in 2024.
I wrote a blog post at that time assessing whether Trump would be a viable candidate in 2024.
I laid out a scenario in which Biden/Harris running the country into the ground could make Trump look a lot more attractive to voters.
An implosion of the country under the Democrats and Biden/Harris. Trump has many critics but hard times have a way of focusing people on what is most important. Trump's personality is the most cited reason why many did not like him. When people are in trouble they are less concerned with personality and more concerned about performance. A deteriorating situation in the country will make Trump a lot more attractive to more people than you can imagine.
That appears to be where we are.
Looking deeper at the data in the CNN poll, 17% of voters say they have an unfavorable view of both Trump and Biden.
That puts those voters directly in a place that political relativity means they have to make the least bad choice.
Those voters, if forced to choose, would break 43% for Trump and 31% for Biden according to the CNN poll. However, a quarter of those voters (4% of the electorate) say they would vote for someone else or not vote at all.
Another interesting data point in the CNN poll is the degree to which voters have ruled out voting for one candidate or the other.
52% of voters state that there is no chance they will vote for Biden while 47% state that there is no chance they will vote for Trump.
Let's compare some of the key data points in the CNN poll when it comes to political relativity.
Net favorability
Biden -23 Trump -16. Trump +7
Presidency was a success Biden 39% Trump 55% Trump +16
Unfavorable opinion of both but if forced to choose Biden 31%. Trump 43% Trump +12
No chance they would vote for Biden 52% Trump 47% Trump +5
When it comes to political relativity in the CNN poll, Trump wins on every measure.
A major factor in the votes of many people involves the economy and the voters personal financial situation.
A Morning Consult/Blomberg poll from last week that focused on these questions with voters in swing states offers more perspective on the question of political relativity and the fact that this election is very much a comparison of two incumbents.
On the question of whether the U.S. economy was better under the Biden administration or the Trump administration, Trump is +16.
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| Source: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1783336309211177467/photo/3 |
On the question of the voter's personal financial situation, Trump is +19.
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| Source: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1783336309211177467/photo/3 |
When you have two candidates who both have high unfavorable ratings it makes it more difficult for the voters.
However, it also requires that the voter focus more on policy than on personality.
Trump's prior record in comparison to Biden is working in his favor just as I predicted it might three years ago.
However, none of this is easy for many voters.
One example is Trump's former Attorney General Bill Barr.
Barr has been critical of Trump, especially regarding his refusal to graciously accept the results of the 2020 election.
He does not have a high opinion of Trump. However, his fears are much greater with Biden and the Democrats in charge.
Barr breaks it down this way.
Barr says you are playing Russian roulette with Trump but committing national suicide with Biden.
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| Source: https://www.mediaite.com/politics/bill-barr-voices-horror-about-trump-biden-rematch-in-fox-news-interview-its-russian-roulette-vs-national-suicide/ |
“I’ve said all along given two bad choices, I think it’s my duty to pick the person I think would do the least harm to the country and in my mind that’s — I will vote the Republican ticket. I will support the Republican ticket,” Barr said.
“I think the real danger to the country, the real danger to democracy, as I say, is the progressive agenda and I’ve said Trump may be playing Russian roulette, but continuation of the Biden administration is national suicide in my opinion,” he said.
Bill Barr understands political relativity very well.
Of course, despite any complaints about the choices involved in 2024, I hope everyone in the United States appreciates the fact that they have a choice.
Many in the world are not so fortunate.
If you want to know why Iran is the leading state sponsor of terrorism in the world you need look no further than the choices that have been provided to the Iranian people since the Islamists took over in the late 1970's.
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