How About A Tariff On Talent?

There is no issue in the United States that is in greater need for resolution and reform than our immigration policy.

U.S immigration policy has been broken for decades.

Combine that with the nonexistent enforcement of the laws that we have and it adds up to the disaster at the border we have seen over the last four years.

This has resulted in an enormous shift in popular opinion on the immigration issue that is evident in looking at recent polling.

First, look at the shift in who voters trust more on the immigration issue between April, 2017 (early in Trump's first term) and January, 2025 in a recent CNN poll.

Democrats were +11 in 2017.

The GOP is now +23 on the immigration issue amounting to a staggering 33 point shift in popular opinion.

Link: https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1883908900061389061

Moreover, look at the polling between December, 2024 (under Biden) and just one month later (under Trump) on whether the nation is on the right or wrong track on immigration.

Under Biden, only 14% of voters thought we were on the right track with immigration. 

That view has increased by 23 points in one month under Trump.

Link: https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1883908900061389061

It all adds up that Trump' has a 46%-39% approval rating advantage on what he is doing on immigration (deportations and all) at the present time.

Link: https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1883908900061389061

All of this tells me that the political environment to overhaul U.S. immigration policy is more favorable today than it has been in over 30 years.

More importantly, President Trump has the political capital and influence to finally get it done.

However, what could President Trump do to make our immigration policy more equitable and less likely to be the product of more bureaucracy and red tape while also generating revenues for the federal government?

Scott McNealy, the former CEO of Sun Microsystems, has suggested that the federal government use a market-based auction system to determine who gets a green card, H-1B or guest worker visa.

The federal government would set annual quotas for all visa categories and there would be monthly auctions for employer or citizen sponsors to bid for the right to sponsor an immigrant to come into the country.

As such, it would act as a 'tariff on talent" in much the same way that Trump's favored tariffs operate on importing goods and services into the country.

Since the United States is allowing the immigrant talent to enter the country why should the country at large not be compensated in some way?

The pure form of McNealy's idea is that the visa market auction would be used for all visa categories. However, my view is that green cards for immediate family members should continue as they are today. I would focus the market auction most particularly on all employment, investor or guest worker visa programs.

Quota limits would be set based on an analysis of domestic labor supply and demand in job sectors and the allowed visas would be purchased in a market auction to the highest bidder.

If Google needs to hire IT talent they would need to bid for the visa spot against other employer sponsors.

The greater the need the higher the bid should be.

If a MLS team wants to bring in a Brazilian soccer player for their team they would have to bid for the spot.

The "talent tariff" auction could also be used for the "Red Card" guest worker proposal. that I have outlined in these pages before.

If a meat packer in Iowa or a strawberry farm in California needs labor they would have to get the visa for their sponsored worker in the talent tariff auction.

Beyond paying the talent tariff, the employer sponsor would also have to be a guarantor of the conduct of the immigrant in the United States. Should the sponsored immigrant commit a crime or cause damage or harm to someone, the employer sponsor would be responsible for paying restitution.

This common sense idea would help insure a more level playing field and also limit the potential for abuse. Most importantly, it would help protect American worker opportunities and wages so as to not be undercut by immigrant labor.

Trump believes strongly in tariffs on foreign made goods. One of the reasons for that is to level the playing field for US manufacturers. 

Countries with lower labor costs, fewer environmental regulations, lower social costs and taxes should not be able to undersell U.S. manufacturers indiscriminately.

Trump wants to incentivize the purchase of U.S. sourced goods through the tariff system while also raising necessary government revenue.

The same can be said for U.S. workers.  A talent tariff would incentivize the hiring of U.S. workers but still provide employers the ability to source foreign talent if there is a true economic justification based on market principles.

If an employer believes that they cannot find the talent they need in the United States they should be willing to pay a tariff for the talent.

This helps insure that the employer is not merely going overseas for the talent to take advantage of lower wages which then, in turn, depresses opportunity and wages for American workers.

In effect, it is a market-based approach to limit abuse in the system that seems to be occurring with the H-1B program today and creates a more even playing field with labor.

However, this approach carries with it a substantial additional benefit in that it would raise badly needed federal government revenues and take pressure off of reliance on the income tax. This would seem to be especially attractive to President Trump who has stated his longer-term goal is to actually replace the income tax completely with a tariff-based approach.

The bottom line is that Trump and the Republicans have never been in a better position to enact sensible immigration reform.

The Democrats have never been put in a weaker negotiating position.

What is still needed are some transformative ideas to modernize and make our immigration laws more in tune with market realities.

Donald Trump has single handedly given the Republicans a lot of leverage on immigration reform.

Of course, Joe Biden has to be given an assist for his abysmal performance on the issue.

Could a tariff on talent be the missing link to pull all of it together?

I like the idea.

Donald Trump should like it even more.