Friday, February 28, 2025

Trump Watch---February 28, 2025 Edition

There is so much going on with the Trump administration I thought I would begin a periodic blog post feature that highlights major items going on with Trump along with commentary from time to time when it is appropriate.

Merry Christmas!

The Trump agenda is being implemented so swiftly and in a such a sweeping manner in so many areas that his supporters have started saying that every new day feels like Christmas.










All will be well as long as a Happy New Year follows.


Trump and the Media

We are once again hearing the narrative that Trump is attempting to be a dictator and is dismissive of many in the media who are covering him.  The argument is made that Trump is restricting access to him from the media as an authoritarian would.

However, compare Trump with Biden when there were rarely any unscripted interactions with the media and, when he did meet with the press, it appeared the questions were often pre-arranged. 

Consider the number of questions that Trump has taken in the first month compared to Biden, Obama and Trump's first term.

Could any President be more transparent?


The Gold Card

President Trump announced this week that he plans to offer a "Gold Card" that would allow those who want to immigrate to the United States the opportunity to receive a Green Card for permanent residency with a pathway to citizenship. 

The most common path for citizenship for Green Card holders is through naturalization after maintaining a continuous relationship in the U.S. for at least five years and being physically present in the country for at least half of that time.


Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-gold-card-eb5-visa-5-million-immigration-oligarch-cbs-news-explains/


A Gold Card could be obtained by payment of $5 million to the U.S. Treasury and being able to pass a strict vetting process.

The Gold Card would replace the EB-5 visa that is currently in place that provides the opportunity for wealthy non-U.S. citizens to gain permanent residency. However, that program has been subject to abuse and fraud at times. It also does not require a payment to the U.S. Treasury as Trump's plan does. It just requires a commitment to invest $1 million in the United States and commitment to create or preserve 10 full time jobs for American workers.

Clearly, the objective of the Gold Card is to get high net worth individuals into the country who can bring capital and entrepreneurial skills to fuel the economy and create jobs for Americans.

According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, there is a reported waiting list of 250,000 for EB-5 visas currently. Less than 10,000 EB-5 visas have been typically issued in recent years.

I doubt that all of the 250,000 on the waiting list have $5 million for a Gold Card. However, even if it was only 50,000 initially that would still bring in $250 billion per year. 

Trump threw out the idea that 1,000,000 Gold Card recipients could generate $5 trillion.

That is far-fetched considering the limited number of eight-figure millionaires in the world. (I figure you would have to have at least $10+ million to consider spending half of that on a Gold Card)

Current estimates by Grok suggest there are no more than 500,000 8-figure millionaires in the world outside of the United States.

However, I like where Trump is going with this.

In my view, this approach should be married with the Talent Tariff idea (credit to Scott McNealy) I wrote about in January that would create an auction method to replace the H-1B and other employment based visas. This might then be called a Silver Card that also could potentially provide a pathway to a Green Card to complement the Gold Card at a lower cost for needed skills and occupations.

We also need a guest worker program similar to my Red Card proposal that would provide work visas but would not provide any pathway to citizenship.

I have already heard some Democrats decry the idea of allowing wealthy individuals the opportunity to enter the country by stating that it was "unfair" to allow them to cut into the line ahead of those who have been waiting patiently to come into the country.

Isn't it interesting that they did not have similar concerns as millions and millions of illegal immigrants poured across our border the last four years?

Elon Musk and DOGE

I continue to be amazed at the anger and animus directed at Elon Musk engendered by his small DOGE team pulling back the covers and looking at various aspects of the federal government's systems and spending.

Why are so many concerned about a little transparency that has been sorely lacking for years when it comes to these issues?

Of course, this week you would have thought that Musk asked each federal employee to write a PhD dissertation when he simply asked each employee to provide five bullet points on what they did last week.

The request was primarily intended just to verify if there was living, breathing employee behind the government email address who was even checking their email.



It is reported that only 1 million government employees out of a reported 2+ million (not including unformed military personnel) on the federal payroll completed the task.



Some Department and Agency heads (Department of Defense, Homeland Security, FBI, CIA etc) told their employees they did not have to comply because they have rigorous chain of command structures in place already.

That is understandable. However, what is the excuse in departments like Education, EPA, HHS and the like?

What is really absurd is the amount of time being spent by those resisting a request for 5 minutes of time to document their existence and work.

Senate Minority Leader does not think any good business operator would manage their operations this way.


However, this is exactly what Elon Musk did when he acquired Twitter.

When he made a similar request at Twitter he found that about 80% of Twitter employees spent most of their time writing rules on what content could not be posted on the platform and then censoring the content that did not conform.

Most of it did not add any value to Twitter. In fact, it was the direct antithesis of what a platform that was originally formed to foster communication, the exchange of ideas and free speech was supposed to be about.

Musk let go of 80% of the Twitter staff in his first months of ownership and the platform did not miss a beat. In fact, X is better than ever as a result.

What was going on at Twitter is very much similar to what is going on in a number of federal agencies such as the Department of Education and the EPA.

Thousands of employees are primarily involved in writing rules and regulations that Americans are supposed to follow. Thousands of employees are also involving in policing all of those rules and regulations that they have promulgated. Most of those also have no direct legislative authorization.

The Department of Education employs 4,400 people. The EPA has over 16,000 full time positions. 

Is all of what they do really, really necessary?

Who says we could not get the same results in education and the environment with 80% less employees?

I don't know. However, I do know that if the question is never asked, and the agency heads are not challenged, we will never know.

It also bears keeping in mind that Kamala Harris spent $1.5 billion and had a campaign staff of 1,200 compared to Trump's staff of 300 and about $350 million in spending in the 2024 election.

Did all those extra staff and spending make Kamala a winner?

President Trump and Elon Musk come from a different world than those who populate D.C.

A final point in all of this is the differential in pay between federal employees and other working Americans.

Generally speaking, federal employees make, on average, 60%-80% more than Americans overall.

Source: Grok3

Federal worker pay is skewed higher, in part, because there are more white collar jobs and more college-educated workers working for the government.

However, it should not go unnoticed that the people paying the bills are making less than the people overseeing the bureaucracy that is making the rules.

I am not sure that it makes a whole lot of sense to be protesting very much about anything that DOGE is doing when you consider the imbalance the bigger picture reveals here.

It might be time for some people to accept a different reality than they are used to.

For now, the American people are strongly supportive of what DOGE is doing.

A Harvard/ Harris poll this week.


It is naive to believe that many federal employees are going to get on the Trump Train.

After all, Kamala Harris got 91% of the vote in the District of Columbia and in the adjoining suburban counties, which are heavily populated with federal workers, saw Trump only garnering an average of 29% of the vote.

However, it might prove to be a poor career choice to stand directly in front of it..

Wednesday, February 26, 2025

LIV Golf---Merge or Die?

LIV golf has just started its fourth season.

Shortly after the LIV golf tour kicked off as a competitor to the PGA Tour in 2022 I wrote a blog post ("Will The LIV Golf Tour Live") assessing its future prospects.

I understood that LIV had the backing of Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) which is the sovereign wealth fund of that oil rich nation. The main objective of the PIF is to diversify the petrodollars coming into other endeavors.

I also recognized that LIV was attracting some big names to its tour by offering huge guarantees for PGA Tour players to defect. 

A lot of money was thrown around by LIV and the Saudis to attract big names like Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau at the outset of the tour.

Those players were each estimated to get money guarantees of over $100 million.

Jon Rahm was brought into LIV in 2024 with an estimated financial package of $300 million.

From the outset it has been difficult for me to understand the financial model that the PIF was using to justify all of this 'investment".

This is what I wrote about LIV golf in July, 2022.

It is tough for me to figure out what is the end game for the Saudis.

If they are investing a billion dollars or more in a fledging golf tour they undoubtedly expect a return on that investment.

They clearly have to expect that the PGA Tour will ultimately pay them off someway (through a legal settlement) or some type of merger will eventually occur that allows them a return on the money they are putting into this.

This has usually been the outcome when other upstart professional leagues (AFL, ABA etc) set out to compete with established pro circuits.

However, it is difficult for me to see there is enough money in the game to justify the high upfront payments that LIV is paying to players.

As I saw it in 2022, LIV had two big problems.

1) Where was LIV going to go to get the big sponsorship deals to rival what the PGA Tour had? This is a big source of revenue for the PGA Tour. If LIV could get some of these dollars to flow their way they would have a chance. Without it, it was hard to see how it would survive on its own.

FedEx, AT&T, RBC, Coca-Cola and all the corporate sponsors are the ultimate key to all of this.

If sponsors decide to start spreading their marketing dollars to include LIV, the PGA Tour is going to have problems.

However, until that happens, LIV's prospects are not good.

Almost three years later LIV has not been able to attract any large sponsors. 

2) Would LIV be able to secure a tv deal to showcase the talents of its players? If not, the players would become increasingly irrelevant due to lack of media exposure.

LIV may have guys who can play the game but it is going to be difficult to get and sustain an audience.

At a minimum, LIV needs a tv deal which it does not have right now. They then need to get people to watch it.

The reality is that the "kingdom" of golf revolves around the four major championships and the PGA Tour. If you are not playing in these events it is going to be hard to maintain relevancy as a competitor.

The LIV players are going to be irrelevant in the golf kingdom despite the fact they are getting paid a lot money by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Brooks Koepka won the PGA Championship in 2023 and Bryson DeChambeau won the U.S. Open last year but for the most part LIV golfers are invisible due to lack of tv exposurse.

LIV did secure a tv deal with the CW Network the last two years but the ratings were abysmal compared to the PGA Tour's numbers. For example, fewer than 100,000 viewers watched Jon Rahm win the 2024 individual championship.

A new tv deal was secured for 2025 with Fox where tournaments will be seen on either the Fox or Fox Sports 1 or 2.

However, the tv ratings are no better this season,

Ratings for the first event in Riyadh were embarrassingly small.

Only 54,000 average viewers watched the final round in Saudi Arabia.


How should we view the first batch of LIV Golf Fox TV ratings?

Well, it depends on what you think about LIV Golf.

Let’s start with what we know. According to multiple sources and as first reported by the Twitter account @YeahClickClack, coverage of LIV Riyadh’s final round on FS1 and FS2 drew audiences of 54,000 and 31,000 average viewers, respectively. According to the same Twitter account, Thursday’s opening-round coverage from Saudi Arabia on FS2 drew 12,000 average viewers.

By comparison, the PGA Tour drew almost 3,000,000 viewers for the final round of the WM Phoenix Open. 

LIV did better with its second tournament in Australia but the ratings are still a fraction of the PGA Tour's.

However, it should be noted that the live coverage was on air very late in the United States Eastern time zone.


What really tells the story of where LIV golf stands is the recent news out of the UK that reported LIV's revenues for 2023 for its non-U.S operations. These represent about half of LIV's events.

Sportcal.com reports that LIV only generated $37 million in total revenues in 2023 and had a net loss of almost $400 million.

It also reports that the Saudi PIF has "invested" close to $4 billion into LIV.

Source: https://www.sportcal.com/financial/liv-golf-hits-the-rough-in-2023-financials-with-non-us-revenue-below-par/

LIV Golf’s UK arm published its financial accounts for the 2023 calendar year this week which are relevant for the entirety of the tour’s non-US business. The highlight – or lowlight – is an overall loss of $395.94 million, $152.2 million more than the $243.7 million loss it made a year prior.

The Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund (PIF) sovereign wealth vehicle has now piled close to $4 billion in investment into the LIV Golf breakaway tour, but losses at the sports property are continuing to mount.


LIV golf is four years into this and has almost no major sponsors, little revenue and almost non-existent tv ratings after spending $4 billion.

They have a handful of golf superstars but hardly anybody sees them play.

The exception is the Adelaide tournament which has drawn well in Australia but that is not enough by itself to justify the PIF investment.

To put into perspective how horrendous the LIV revenue numbers are, consider the fact that Scottie Scheffler, the leading money winner of the PGA Tour in 2024, apparently made more money last year ($102 million) than LIV's total revenue,


Source: https://www.sportico.com/personalities/athletes/2025/scottie-scheffler-pga-tour-golf-earnings-2024-1234827982/


You may recall that it has been almost two years since LIV and the PGA Tour announced a proposed merger.

Source: https://en.as.com/other_sports/why-has-the-pga-tour-liv-golf-merger-taken-so-long-and-when-will-it-happen-n/


However, the two have still not reached any definitive agreement despite a lot of talk.

The PIF must be getting impatient in seeing losses pile up month after month.

The PGA Tour should be in a much better negotiating position than it was in 2023.

However, there is little doubt that the sponsors and fans of the PGA Tour are also getting impatient for some form of reunification of the game's top players.

That is probably a big reason that we saw both sides meet recently with President Trump in an attempt to bring the parties together.


Source: https://www.reuters.com/sports/golf/trump-meets-tiger-woods-part-pga-tour-liv-golf-talks-2025-02-20/



It looks to me that LIV golf must merge soon...or DIE.

LIV golf (the Saudi PIF fund) is too motivated to find a way to get a return on their money to allow it to die right now.

The PGA Tour is also intent on getting some of that Saudi money infused into the PGA Tour.

After all, money talks.

It will be a shock to me if a definitive merger agreement of some sort is not announced by the two parties in the very near future.

Stay tuned.

Monday, February 24, 2025

What Did You Do Last Week?

Elon Musk, in his capacity as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), issued a directive for all federal employees on Saturday to email their weekly accomplishments by Monday night, or else face resignation. 

This is the email.


President Trump had earlier asked Elon to ramp up his DOGE efforts.





Elon Musk explained one of the reasons that he made the request at the direction of President Trump was a simple pulse check to see how many employees are out there and actually functioning.



For perspective, this is the same thing that Musk did after he purchased Twitter and it is also a common practice in other service industries after a change in management.

However, the American Federation of Government Employees thinks it is "cruel and disrespectful" for federal employees to justify what they are doing for their paycheck and the American people.

The AFGE represents 800,000 federal government workers.


When the AFGE says that Elon Mush has not performed one single hour of honest public service in his life they seem to be disregarding all that he is doing with DOGE right now for which he is not being paid one cent.

Shouldn't they also recognize the fact that Musk is almost certainly the nation's largest taxpayer who just so happens to be paying for the salaries of those federal government employees?

All of this raises the question as to why do government employees have the right to unionize in the first place?

It is important to remember that there is no real legal or economic reason for the very existence of a public sector union in the first place.  In fact, liberal Democrat luminaries in the 1930's such as Franklin D. Roosevelt and Fiorello LaGuardia were opposed to public sector unionism for the simple reason that it threatened the broad needs of the citizenry.  That is why it was illegal for most government employees to unionize until well into the 1970's.  

Fred Siegel of The Manhattan Institute wrote about how liberals were once skeptical of public-sector unionism in The Wall Street Journal a few years back.


In the 1930s, New York Mayor Fiorello LaGuardia warned against it as an infringement on democratic freedoms that threatened the ability of government to represent the broad needs of the citizenry. And in a 1937 letter to the head of an organization of federal workers, FDR noted that "a strike of public employees manifests nothing less than an intent on their part to prevent or obstruct the operations of Government until their demands are satisfied. Such action, looking toward the paralysis of Government by those who have sworn to support it, is unthinkable and intolerable."

The historical basis for unions in the private sector is based on insuring a balance of power to insure that workers receive a reasonable share of profits and work in safe and sanitary conditions. Governments don't make profits to share. They only levy taxes. 

In addition, has anyone ever heard of a government worker working in a sweat shop? They also work in a monopoly situation meaning that if they provide poor service, or no service, or go out on strike, there is no corresponding power by the consumer to go elsewhere as there is with a private sector business that is unionized.

Private sector unions are also balanced against equity owners who have a natural incentive to push back on union demands. In the public sector no such tensions exists. More often than not the elected officials on the other side of the bargaining table are incentivized to give in to the unions for their own political survival. Democrat politicians in particular know that they would often not have been elected (nor will they be reelected) without that public sector union money flowing into their campaign coffers.

Why did the Democrats change their views about public sector unions? In a word, MONEY.

Beginning in the early 1960's the Democrats decided that the political advantage of having the political and fundraising power of these unions behind them outweighed any concerns about taxpayers and the broader citizenry.

We are now at the point that half of all union members in the United States are public employees.

Moreover, one-third of government employees are union members compared to only 6% in the private sector.

Source: https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/union-membership-in-us-workforce.html


What we are seeing in Washington, D.C. with the unhinged reactions by federal bureaucrats to the simplest questions and requests for information about how our money is being spent shows just how deep the swamp is.

The size and shape of the federal bureaucracy and the money that is flowing to it has created a fundamental imbalance between those who work for the government and the taxpayers who support it.

This is evident in national personal income rankings in which Washington, D.C. leads all 50 states on that measure.

Remember that this also takes into account a large number of people who live in poverty in D.C.

Source: https://www.voronoiapp.com/economy/The-Median-Income-in-Every-State-Adjusted-for-Cost-of-Living-1585


This is further evidenced by the fact that four of the top seven richest counties in the United States are all suburbs of Washington, D.C.

Source: https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/richest-counties-in-the-us/


Washington, DC has no manufacturing base. It does not make rocket or electric vehicles as Elon Musk does. It does not grow crops. It has no oil wells or coal mines. It does not produce computer chips or other high tech items. It produces almost nothing that creates value in a traditional economy. Yet, its residents have the highest per capita income in the country! What more is needed to know that something is seriously amiss in our country?

Washington is largely a gigantic redistribution machine today. Money comes in one end from one group of people and it goes out the other end to another group of people. Money and wealth have been created in Washington because of the bureaucracy that runs that machine.

All of this speaks to a fundamental imbalance between those who work for the federal government and those who pay for it.

The DOGE effort is simply to try to bring some balance to the system.

The reaction we are seeing clearly shows how difficult a task that is.

I don't know if DOGE will be successful in seeing to it that the needed balance is restored to the system.  

All I know is that it has to occur if we are to survive as a country in the long term.

A system in which the takers end up with more than the makers will eventually fail. We can control the consequences or we can face the chaos when it crumbles. The choice is ours.

Is asking he question "What Did You Do Last Week?" cruel, disrespectful and out of touch?

Friday, February 21, 2025

This and That---February 21, 2025 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.

Airplane Accidents

My last blog post was focused on the importance of distinguishing between our perception and the reality of what is going on in the world.

There is no better example of this than the recent reporting by the media and reactions by Democrats to recent airplane accidents.

The intent is clearly to mislead the public and create anti-Trump animus.

Here is an example by Senate Democrat Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.



Trump's massive layoffs at the FAA? They involved less than 400 employees out of a workforce of 45,000 most of which were on probationary status.

Another example by Eric Swalwell (D-CA).


The only problem with Swalwell's statement is that it is not true.

There were almost twice as many airplane accidents in Biden's first month.



The CAROL database can be found here.

And Chuck Schumer also claims that Democrats are fighting to protect the flying public?

Where were they last year?

If that is not enough, here is CNN with a report that January had a record low number of airplane accidents.

Source: https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/02/19/cnn-january-had-a-record-low-number-of-airplane-accidents-n3799989


Take a look at January’s preliminary data from the National Transportation Safety Board.

It appears that last month there was a record low number of airplane accidents nationwide, when combining private and commercial airline flights. Most of the 62 total airplane accidents were on private flights, and that total number was 18 less than the 80 recorded in January 2024.

In fact, if the preliminary numbers hold, January 2025 will surpass the previous record for the lowest number of total accidents, with eight fewer than the prior record low of 70 from January 2012.

 

Credit: https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1892417944983867653


Facts can be very inconvenient when it comes to perceptions.


Elon Musk Is Going To Invade Your Privacy

Another narrative that is being pushed by the media and Democrats is that Elon Musk and his DOGE team are going to somehow steal your personal information stored in government systems like the Social Security System or Internal Revenue Service records.

This is an example in a tweet from a Democrat Congressman from New York.


However, in 2023 during the Biden administration, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration disclosed that almost 1,000 individuals had access to unmasked IRS data.

That included 239 contractors, 73 federal employees who were not working at the IRS and 20 unpaid outsider researchers or student volunteers who were not even on the payroll of the federal government.

Credit: https://x.com/johnkartch/status/1891501183438578138

Who is a bigger risk to your personal data?

Elon Musk and his DOGE team who are operating under a media and political microscope or 1,000 anonymous individuals where their motives are completely unknown?

Where were all of the privacy concerns in 2023?

Another example of perception and reality.


Is There Anyone Left to Turn Off The Lights?

An interesting graphic on where Fortune 500 companies were relocating between 2018-2023.

California lost 8 companies. Texas gained 10.

Note that all of the states that lost large companies are deep blue voting states.

Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-where-fortune-500-companies-are-relocating-in-the-u-s/

Is this just a coincidence?

How Far Could California Go Alone?

Lately we are hearing liberals in California argue that they should secede from the United States.

They might want to consider the following data before they do.

California has the largest international trade deficit of any state--- a negative trade balance of $281 billion.

On the other hand, Texas has a trade surplus of $52 billion.


Source: https://brilliantmaps.com/balance-of-trade-us-states/


What is a big takeaway from this chart?

States that can export oil, gas and food have the most favorable trade balances.

Those that are most reliant on China imports have the worst trade balances.


Don't Sleep On It

I never knew that there was such a wide variation in the amount of sleep that various animals required.

Sharks almost never sleep. I guess they are alway hungry.


No wonder cows don't mind being milked at 4am.


We knew that they are busy most of the time.


There is obviously a large variation in the amount of sleep for the human species.

President Trump and Elon Musk seem to hardly sleep at all.

On the other hand, we wondered for four years whether Joe Biden was ever awake?



When they are not hooting, owls are sleeping quite a bit.



Dogs spend a lot of time sleeping when not trying to get your attention.


Of course, cats spend most of their time sleeping.




And it seems the bigger the cat the more they sleep.





The king of sleep in the animal kingdom is an animal I have never even heard of.



For the complete video of all animals go here.

Don't sleep on any of this information.

Armed with this data you can be the king or queen of small talk at the next cocktail party you attend!

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Perception and Reality

Let's take a trip back to February, 2021 and February, 2022.

It was a world caught up in Covid hysteria.

Schools were using remote learning. Millions working from home. Empty restaurants and stores.

Many elective medical procedures and surgeries were cancelled to not overload the hospitals.

Loved ones were not allowed to visit relatives in hospitals and nursing homes.

People were not allowed to gather in churches or at funerals.

Masks and social distancing were the standards of everyday life.

Trillions of federal dollars printed and handed out for Americans whose lives had been disrupted by the pandemic.

Media stories day and night about Covid and the toll it was taking on every aspect of our lives.

Death counters on the evening news.

Daily statistics on the numbers in the hospital due to Covid.

This is a graph by the CDC of the weekly hospitalizations from Covid since March 14, 2020 which is the week we first heard the infamous words "15 Days to Slow the Spread"


Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#covidnet-hospitalization-network

Interestingly, the highest levels of hospitalizations were incurred over one year after the "safe and effective" Covid vaccines were first administered.

That was also almost one year after Dr. Tony Fauci claimed that the vaccines were extraordinarily effective in preventing both hospitalizations and deaths.


Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/vaccine-covid-fauci-deaths-b1808878.html

“The J&J data that just came out – when you have advanced critical disease, there were no hospitalisations and no deaths. That’s good news,” Dr Fauci said in an interview with CBS’s Margaret Brennan.


Of course, the J&J vaccine that Fauci was so highly touting in 2021 was pulled from the market in 2023 due to concerns about serious blood clotting issues in some recipients.


Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12174791/J-Js-COVID-vaccine-taken-19-MILLION-Americans-pulled-FDA-plummeting-demand.html

I provide this historical context as I have recently been following CDC data regarding the prevalence of influenza and other respiratory illnesses in the United States this flu season.

One interesting data point is that the percentage of outpatient visits for respiratory illnesses (influenza, SARS-Cov-2 (Covid-19 and other coronaviruses) and RSV is at the highest level it has been in the last 5 years.

This includes all of the Covid pandemic years.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/surveillance/2025-week-06.html

This is even more astounding to me as you would think that total outpatient visits for other medical conditions (the denominator in this equation) would have been depressed during the Covid years.

How much have you seen or heard much of anything about the current flu pandemic?

Have there been any calls for any mitigation efforts against the flu this year?

It is not much different when you look at the data on hospitalizations from the flu.

In Week 5 of this flu season (week ending February 1, 2025) the hospitalization rate for influenza in the U.S population was 12.8/100,000. There were another 2.8/100,000 hospitalized with Covid.

That totals 15.6/100,000 for Covid + flu.


Source: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/surveillance/2025-week-06.html


To get an accurate representation on hospitalizations over the last five years for respiratory illness it is necessary to add flu cases together with Covid cases.

This is due to the fact that during the heights of the Covid pandemic flu cases practically disappeared.

( I wrote about this mystery early in the pandemic (October, 2020). The best explanation I have seen is one of "viral interference" in that Covid in some way blocked the flu virus from replicating in the population. It is almost as if Covid was bigger and stronger so that the flu could not get firmly established in the community when Covid was present.

The other possible explanation is that a lot of flu cases ended up being misidentified as Covid.)

If you take that 15.6/100,000 number for 2025 and compare it to the comparable number of hospitalizations on the same Week 5 data for Covid and the flu in 2021, 2022 and 2023 you get these numbers.



Incredibly, there were more people in the hospital with Covid or the flu the first week of February, 2025 than there was during the same week in any of the years of the pandemic.

However, there is almost no mention of this in the media or by any public health authorities?

Considering this data I could not help thinking about the old thought experiment involving the tree that falls in a forest with no one around.

Is there a sound if no one can hear it?

Credit: https://custom-writing.org/blog/if-a-tree-falls-in-the-forest

What is reality and what is perception?

Looking back, was the Covid pandemic more about perception than reality?

What can be said about what is going on right now with flu cases in the United States?

Are we ignoring the reality because the perception is different?

Interesting questions to consider.

Of course, it should be clear today that perception rather than reality permeated almost everything about the Covid pandemic

That includes the public health response to it.

Almost everything was done based on perception rather than reality.

There was no science to support that wearing surgical and cloth masks offered any real protection against the virus.



There was no science behind the 6 foot social distancing recommendation.


These were both pushed by Fauci and the public health establishment to provide the perception to the public that something was being done for their protection. It was not based on science or reality.

The "15 Days To Slow The Spread" campaign was also all about perception.

Dr. Deborah Birx wrote in her book that "15 days to slow the spread " was just the term they used to convince Trump to approve the initial lockdown. They all knew that it was just the start and they wanted to lockdown much longer

Source: https://www.independentsentinel.com/dr-birx-admits-they-lied-about-the-15-days-to-flatten-the-curve/

Dr. Birx is now confessing that the Covid vaccines were not designed to prevent transmission or infections and should not have been pushed on the younger population.


Link: https://x.com/VigilantFox/status/1891690382779470104


It should be noted that while Dr. Birx is now admitting the reality of the Covid vaccines, I wrote about it in these pages two months before they were first released.

How did I, a non-Doctor, know that the Covid vaccines were not designed to be effective against infection and transmission before the vaccines were even released?
 
I did research regarding the vaccines in development and cited a Harvard Medical School professor who had followed the clinical research studies closely.

Here is what I wrote in "What You Should Know About The Covid Vaccine" in October, 2020.

Prevention of infection is the normal critical end point goal for any vaccine trial. The vaccine should be effective at preventing infection and stopping the spread of the virus. This is particularly important at this time when we have a virus that has caused a pandemic.

However, that is not the stated goal of the Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca or Johnson & Johnson vaccines that are currently in late stage trials with the expectation they will be ready for widespread distribution within several months.

Haseltine points out that in none of the vaccine trial protocols for any of these vaccines is the prevention of infection considered a criterion of success.

The vaccines are to be considered a success merely if they reduce the severity of the symptoms of someone who is infected with Covid.

Of course, the Covid vaccines were not just pushed on younger people, they were MANDATED.

People were told that they would be protected from the virus and it would protect others around them.

Millions and millions of people were affected.

Nurses and other medical professionals were fired for not taking the vaccine.

Military personnel were discharged.

College students were not allowed to enroll in college.

Foreign visitors and legal immigrants were barred from the country if they had not been fully vaccinated against Covid. (Of course, this rule was not applied to illegal immigrants).

Many employers who believed they were following the reality of "the science" put their own mandates in place and fired employees who would not comply.

All of this was done to create a perception of protection that did not exist in reality.

In fact, most everything was based on misinformation, disinformation and outright lies.

The sad reality is it was those who tried to point out reality were the ones who were censored and maligned.

There is an important lesson here.

There is a difference between perception and reality.

Much of what you are exposed to in the media today is designed to influence your perception of reality rather than the actual reality of a situation.

At BeeLine, my goal is to always analyze the data and facts to find reality.

I provide the receipts wherever I can so you can do your own research and form your own opinions.

Please expose a few friends to my work so that more people understand the difference between perception and reality

It can be a lonely path . However, it is the only route to find real truth.